El Niño puts Uganda’s food gains at risk as Africa braces for sh74 trillion losses
The government has also warned that the anticipated El Niño rainfall is likely to cause havoc in some parts of the country.
El Niño puts Uganda’s food gains at risk as Africa braces for sh74 trillion losses
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Recent improvements in food prices in Uganda could come under growing pressure as an exceptionally strong El Niño weather event threatens to disrupt agricultural production, food supplies and livelihoods across Africa through early 2027.
The July 2026 Food Security Monitor, published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA), warns that the expected El Niño event could trigger droughts, floods, crop failures, livestock losses and economic disruption across the continent.
According to the Monitor, the African Development Bank estimates that the weather event could reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in heavily affected African countries by between 1% and 2% and cause economic losses of $10 billion to $20 billion (about sh37.2 trillion to sh74.4 trillion) through crop failures, livestock losses, damage to infrastructure, higher food prices and increased migration pressures.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected an 81% probability of a very strong El Niño developing between October and December 2026, while the likelihood of the conditions persisting through April 2027 stands at 97%, according to AGRA.
Encouraging signs for Uganda
The warning comes at a time when food markets have shown encouraging signs of easing in Uganda. AGRA reports that maize prices in Uganda fell by 4.7% in July, while rice prices declined by 5.6% and beans recorded a much sharper 17.2% drop as improved harvest arrivals increased market supplies.
The developments make Uganda one of the countries helping to moderate food price pressures in Eastern Africa, alongside Tanzania, where improved harvests have also increased food availability.
However, AGRA warns that the current improvement should not be mistaken for a guarantee of food security in the months ahead.
“The 2026 El Niño event is expected to become exceptionally strong and persist into early 2027,” AGRA says in its July Food Security Monitor, warning that the phenomenon should be treated as a cross-cutting risk across East and Southern Africa.
The potential effects include changes in rainfall distribution, reduced crop yields, deteriorating livestock conditions, tighter market supplies and renewed upward pressure on food prices.
Food insecurity
It identifies parts of Uganda, particularly Karamoja, among areas experiencing serious food security challenges. According to the Monitor, El Niño-related rainfall deficits, delayed planting, poor pasture conditions, livestock losses and below-average crop production are undermining food availability and income generation in vulnerable parts of the region, including Karamoja.
Although improved rainfall in some areas and anticipated harvests could bring localised improvements towards the end of 2026, AGRA says recovery is likely to remain limited by below-average production, elevated food and fuel prices, shrinking purchasing power and persistent insecurity.
The situation could put additional pressure on households that already spend a significant share of their income on food. It is particularly concerning for vulnerable populations, including refugees and internally displaced people, who rely heavily on humanitarian assistance at a time when funding and access constraints are limiting relief operations.
Global food prices rising
The potential weather shock comes against a backdrop of rising global food commodity prices. AGRA reports that the FAO Food Price Index increased by 0.6% month-on-month and 1% year-on-year in July 2026, driven by increases in cereals, sugar and vegetable oils.
The rise was attributed to weather-related production concerns, uncertainties surrounding Black Sea exports, strong demand for biofuels and rising crude oil prices.
The International Grains Council’s Grains and Oilseeds Index also rose by 6% from June and 11.6% from a year earlier. According to the report, this reflects broad-based gains in major commodities, particularly wheat and soybeans. Rice prices, however, remained largely stable during the month.
Fertiliser markets remain a concern
AGRA says phosphate fertilisers remained firm in July, while DAP and MAP prices increased marginally and remained significantly above their levels a year earlier.
Although Uganda and Nigeria showed signs of fertiliser price easing after earlier increases, the Monitor says fertiliser prices remained elevated in several African markets, increasing the risk of higher production costs for farmers.
The early effects of worsening weather conditions are already visible in parts of East Africa. AGRA highlights Kenya’s Baringo County, where prolonged dry conditions have destroyed an estimated 75% of the expected maize harvest, with losses reaching as high as 80% in some lowland areas.
The report says such production losses are raising concerns about national grain availability and the possibility of higher food prices, forcing governments and development partners to strengthen preparedness and response measures.
The situation illustrates the risks Uganda could face if rainfall patterns deteriorate during the coming agricultural seasons.
Global markets
The expected weather shock could also complicate international food markets at a time when commodity prices are already responding to supply concerns.
AGRA says global food markets in July were affected by weather-related production risks, uncertainties over Black Sea exports, biofuel demand and higher crude oil prices.
For African countries dependent on imports of certain food commodities and agricultural inputs, international price movements can quickly feed into domestic markets. This means that even where Uganda enjoys a good harvest, external shocks could still influence the cost of food, fuel and agricultural inputs.
Call for preparedness
AGRA says the expected persistence of El Niño into early 2027 means governments and development partners should treat it as a major cross-cutting risk rather than a temporary weather event.
It says the potential impacts extend beyond crop production to livestock, markets, household incomes, food prices, infrastructure and migration.
The government has also warned that the anticipated El Niño rainfall is likely to cause havoc in some parts of the country.
In a statement to Parliament last week, disaster preparedness and refugees minister Sam Engola revealed that from September to December, areas including flood-prone lowlands, urban centres with inadequate drainage systems, river catchments, wetlands and mountainous regions susceptible to landslides are warned about the forthcoming El Niño rains.