African scientists sharpen data tools to tackle women’s disease outbreaks

KAMPALA — A growing network of African scientists is using data and mathematical modelling to tackle some of the continent’s most urgent health challenges, with a strong focus on women’s health and faster responses to disease outbreaks.

Researchers say the goal is simple but significant: ensure Africa can generate its own evidence and use it to shape health policy based on local realities. 

That effort was on display this week in Nairobi, where scientists from across Africa gathered for the third summer school of the African Modelling and Analytics Academy for Women, known as AMAX.

The initiative brings together research institutions from East, West, North and Central Africa to strengthen expertise in mathematical modelling and public health analysis.

While the technical language may sound academic, the work is tied to practical decisions that affect millions of people.

Mathematical modelling helps researchers and policymakers estimate how diseases may spread, identify which communities face the highest risk, test vaccine strategies and predict what health systems may need before an outbreak worsens.

That can shape decisions on where vaccines are deployed, how hospitals prepare and which public health measures are most likely to work.

For ordinary Ugandans, those decisions matter.

They influence outbreak preparedness, healthcare planning and how quickly governments can respond when public health emergencies emerge.

The AMAX initiative was created under the Gates Foundation’s Global Grand Challenges programme through the Gender Data Equity initiative.

Its focus reflects a wider concern among researchers that women’s health is still underrepresented in health data and often not fully reflected in policy planning.

At the same time, health emergencies across Africa are becoming more complex.

Infectious disease outbreaks continue to strain public health systems while antimicrobial resistance, where medicines stop working effectively against infections, is becoming a growing concern.

“COVID-19 showed the world that mathematical modelling is not just an academic exercise, it is essential for epidemic preparedness, rapid response, and policy action,” said Prof Amira Kebir, Principal Investigator of the AMAX project.

“AMAX was created to ensure African countries have the expertise and collaborative networks needed to respond to public health challenges while also addressing gender inequities in health data and decision-making.”

The research network is currently focused on five major health issues affecting women and vulnerable populations: human papillomavirus, hepatitis B, COVID-19, antimicrobial resistance and schistosomiasis.

Scientists say these are areas where stronger data and better forecasting can directly improve health outcomes.

Dr Mutono Nyamai, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis in Nairobi, said African institutions need stronger local research systems to solve the continent’s most urgent health challenges.

“This initiative reflects the growing need to build strong local research capacity to develop locally grounded solutions for Africa’s most pressing health challenges,” she said.

“Strengthening expertise in data analytics and mathematical modelling within African institutions will enable countries to respond more effectively to outbreaks and health emergencies through timely, evidence-based decision-making, ultimately saving lives.”

Uganda is part of that network through Mbarara University of Science and Technology.

Its researchers have been collaborating with the Pasteur Institute of Tunis on antimicrobial resistance studies, while other scientists across the AMAX network are working on practical policy questions linked to vaccination, epidemic response and healthcare costs.

One example came from Kenya and Senegal.

Researchers used modelling to assess strategies for controlling schistosomiasis and recommended expanding treatment to children below the age of five.

Another team examined the economic impact of HPV vaccination across several African countries to identify options national health systems could afford while protecting public health.

The Nairobi gathering brought together researchers for lectures, group work, case studies and policy-focused hackathons designed around real challenges ministries of health are facing.

Participants also explored how health economics, ethics and equity should shape modelling so findings can guide practical decisions.

Prof Slimane Ben Miled of the Pasteur Institute of Tunis said Africa’s modelling expertise is growing, but remains uneven across the continent.

“AMAX was created to help close those gaps by strengthening local expertise, fostering collaboration, and promoting shared learning across African institutions,” he said.
He added that the initiative is doing more than training researchers.

“Importantly, AMAX is not only training scientists, but it is also creating a collaborative ecosystem linking researchers, ministries of health, data providers, and policymakers across Africa.”