A New Vision poll conducted three weeks to the January 14 elections predicted that the National Resistance Movement (NRM) party presidential candidate, President Yoweri Museveni, would win the race. The poll also placed the National Unity Platform (NUP) flag-bearer, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, in second place.

On Saturday January 16, Electoral Commission announced Museveni winner after he polled 58.64% of the votes against that of Kyagulanyi who garnered 34.83% of the total vote.

The poll predicted that Museveni would win by 53.9%, but Kyagulanyi would defeat him in only one region — Buganda. The January 16 results indicated that Kyagulanyi won in Buganda, even though Museveni also garnered a sizeable number of votes in the area.

The Vision Group’s opinion poll also indicated that many issues remained unsolved in the central region, including land evictions and grabbing and rising unemployment, which affected the NRM support in the region.

On the battle for the parliamentary seats in northern Uganda, the poll indicated that the race was mainly between the ruling NRM and independents, with opposition contenders, such as the Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) dominating in the Lango sub-region.

The polls showed the battle for parliamentary seats in the northern region was dominated by incumbents in the sampled districts of Apac, Adjumani, Kotido, Moroto, Arua, Amolatar, Gulu, Kitgum, Lira, Zombo, Pader, and Nakapiripirit. The poll rightly predicted that the First Deputy Prime Minister and incumbent, Gen. Moses Ali, was leading with 84%. Ali won the race.

In Amolatar district, poll results projected NRM was in charge of the political trajectory, with all respondents sampled saying they preferred James Olobo for the Kioga North MP seat. Olobo won the seat. For Kioga County, the polls also predicted that NRM’s Anthony Okello was leading with 58%. Okello emerged as the winner.

In Moroto Municipality, the polls predicted that NRM’s Adome Lorika was leading with 90%. Lorika was announced the eventual winner of the January 14 polls.

In Arua, the poll predicted that the battle for Arua was largely an NRM affair. In Ayivu East, NRM’s Geoffrey Feta was in the lead with over 65% against Isaac Ayikobua of NUP. Feta was announced as the winner. In Arua Central, the polls indicated that NRM’s Jackson Etima was leading the incumbent, Kassiano Wadri, of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT). Etima won.

In Kampala, Vision Group poll predicted that opposition contenders and new entrants into the race for MP were leading the battle for parliamentary seats in all the constituencies sampled.

In Nakawa East, the poll indicated that the mayor for Nakawa division, Ronald Balimwezo was leading the five-member race with 57%.

Balimwezo, who was the candidate for NUP, won the race, defeating the incumbent and Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) flag-bearer, Michael Kabaziguruka, and seasoned politician and former MP for the area, Frederick Ruhindi, who was the NRM candidate.

In the newly created Nakawa West, the poll indicated that the NUP spokesperson, Joel Ssenyonyi, was in the lead against independent candidate Kenneth Kakande, Margaret Zziwa Nantongo of the NRM, and FDC’s Wilberforce Kyambadde. Ssenyonyi emerged as the winner.

For the Kampala Central seat, the polls rightly predicted that it was a tight two-horse race, with NUP’s Fred Nyanzi Ssentamu, having a slight edge over incumbent Muhammed Nsereko, the survey showed. Poll results show that Nyanzi was leading with 51%, while Nsereko, who is contesting as an independent candidate, was at 49%. When the margin of error is put into consideration, the race between Nyanzi and Nsereko was too close to call.

Nsereko emerged winner with a small margin.

In Kawempe South, the polls predicted NUP’s flag-bearer, Muhammad Ssegirinya, in the lead with 88%, while incumbent Latif Ssebagala was at 12%. Ssegirinya was announced winner, defeating seven candidates.

For Kawempe South, the polls predicted that NUP’s Bashir Kazibwe, was in the lead, followed by FDC candidate and incumbent Mubarak Munyagwa. Kazibwe trounced Munyagwa.

In Rubaga North, NUP’s flag-bearer Abubaker Kawalya was predicted as leading by the polls. Kawalya defeated NRM’s Beti Kamya, who is also the lands minister and the incumbent, Moses Kasibante.

In Makindye West, the polls predicted that the incumbent, Allan Ssewanyana, who is also the NUP flagbearer, was leading with 73%. Ssewanyana beat five other candidates in the race, including Farouq Ntege, Bosco Lusagala, and Abubaker Sserunga.

When respondents were asked why they prefer to vote for Ssewanyana ahead of other contenders, they cited popularity, among other reasons.

“He is popular, has good communication skills, and has mentored youth to get employment,” one of the respondents said.

Mityana

In Mityana Municipality, all the respondents (100%) interviewed said they would vote for NUP’s Francis Zaake who sailed through.

In the battle for Mukono Municipality, our polls gave the incumbent, who stood on the NUP ticket, Betty Nambooze, a 77% lead, followed by DP’s Fred George Kagimu at 17%, and NRM’s Abbas Ssozi at 7%. Nambooze emerged as the winner.

In Mawogola North, the polls predicted that Shartsi Musherure Kutesa, the daughter of foreign affairs minister Sam Kutesa was in the lead. The polls placed Godfrey Aine Kaguta, the brother of Museveni in second place. Aine later withdrew from the race and Musherure was the winner.

In Wakiso district, the polls indicated that the battle for MP seats was largely being led by opposition candidates, with 74% of respondents saying they will vote for FDC’s Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda for Kira Municipality MP seat.

Ssemujju retained his seat.

In Nansana Municipality, all the respondents interviewed said they would vote for NUP’s Musoke Wakayima, who was contesting against MP Robert Ssebunya Kasule (NRM), among others. Wakayima emerged as the winner.

Western Uganda

In Ndorwa East, Vision Group poll predicted that independent candidate Wilfred Niwagaba was leading with 74%, while NRM’s Protazio Beguma was at 26%.

Niwagaba won the race.

In Ndorwa West, all respondents sampled said they preferred the incumbent and finance state minister David Bahati, who contested against seven rivals.

These include ANT’s Samuel Atuhairwe and Geoffrey Mpiriirwe Nzaaana of the FDC. Bahati won.

Mbarara district

For Mbarara South, lawmaker and NRM candidate Mwine Mpaka was predicted as leading the race with 89%, while Emmy Mbareebaki, an independent, was at 11%.

Mwine won.

For Mbarara North, Robert Mwesigwa Rukaari was predicted as leading the race.

He was announced the winner.

Battle for Masaka

In Kimanya-Kabonera, Masaka district, Dr Abed Bwanika, the parliamentary candidate for the NUP, was predicted as leading the race at 79%, followed by the FDC candidate, Kayemba Affayo, at 15% and Robert Assimwe of the NRM at 6%. The other candidates in the race, included Jude Mbabaali, the DP flag-bearer. Bwanika won the race.

In Bukoto East, the polls indicated that NUP’s Ronald Evans Kanyike was leading the race at 69%, while his closest rival, Sarah Babirye Kityo, of the NRM was at 31%. Kanyike won the race.

Still, in Masaka, the respondents sampled within Nyendo-Mukungwe preferred NUP’s parliamentary candidate Mathias Mpuuga at 56%, ahead of DP strongman Fred Mukasa Mbidde, who scored 23%. Sarah Kiyimba of NRM and Peter Sempa, an independent candidate, tied in number three at 10%. Mpuuga won the race.

How the poll was conducted

The Pre-Election Poll is a national public opinion poll study conducted by Vision Group in a five-year interval, towards national general presidential elections.

For this particular poll, Vision Group sanctioned the study with the aim of gauging the perceptions and preferences for all nominated candidates for the position of president, parliamentary seats, and other political ranks at the local and district level.

The research was conducted between November 2 and 14, covering 45 districts across the country, with a target sample size of 5,679 respondents aged 18 years and above.

The sampling of respondents was done with a 95% confidence level, with an error margin of about +/- 0.05 on the compilation of the findings.

Francis Opolot, the project manager and data analyst at Vision Group, said the sample was guided by the Uganda Demographic and Health Survey (UDHS) 2017 data.

Based on the projections, at least 44% of the population is aged 18 and above. The sampling was done at various levels, starting with the district and going all the way through sub-counties, constituencies, parishes, and villages.