A wave of political mistrust has engulfed MPs

With cracks widening in the armouries of the four main political parties in Uganda, many MPs are sitting on the fence, with majority tilting towards the idea of forming a new formation ahead of the 2026 elections.

Currently, all four main parties, the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), the National Unity Platform (NUP), the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), and the Democratic Party (DP), are clogged with internal contradictions.

The only difference, political experts said, is that some are subtle, while others have already come to the fore.

Analysts added that if these splits continue to widen, we might see the Kenyan kind of political alliances whereby factions and main parties agree and form certain movements of sorts for particular elections.

“You can’t rule out that we shall also soon be like Kenya in that we don’t have political parties but we have political formations towards elections and that is where it ends,” Frederick Ssempebwa, a law professor, told Saturday Vision.

For the NRM, the power struggle is between the old guards and the young Turks who are determined to take over from President Yoweri Museveni in the next elections.  They are led by the senior presidential advisor on special operations, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who is known in political circles by his initials, MK.

Within NUP, the split is between the moderates in Parliament led by their opposition leader, Mathias Mpuuga, who is also the Nyendo-Mukungwe Division MP, and the hardliners at the secretariat in Makerere Kavule, led by party president Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine.

The NUP radicals want Mpuuga to be part of dramatic news headlines by taking a militant position on pertinent issues to accelerate their pace for regime change but he is not giving an inch.

Although publicly, senior NUP officials, Kyagulanyi and Mpuuga inclusive, downplay their disagreements over strategy for causing regime change, insiders within the young party say these disagreements are growing.

In April, Mpuuga told the media that his party’s move to impose a two-term limit on elective posts would force some of its good politicians to join other parties or stand as independents.

Analysts say if NUP’s senior officials fail to resolve these growing disagreements about the strategy, they could result in a total split and what is going to be very determinant is how the question of the Leader of Opposition (LOP) is resolved come December.

“If there is a change that is made in the person who holds the position of Leader of Opposition, it could set NUP on a rocky path but if Mpuuga stays in that position, maybe it will calm down the situation,” one political commentator told Saturday Vision.

The FDC struggle for power has also reached a point of no return. The split, which initially was over “dirty state money”, but later metamorphosed into a protracted party control battle, pits the party president, Eng. Patrick Amuriat, and secretary general, Nandala Mafabi, who is also the Budadiri West MP, against spokesperson, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, who is also the Kira Municipality MP, and deputy party president and Kampala Lord Mayor, Erias Lukwago.

FDC leaders spilt over 'dirty money'

Dr. Kizza Besigye, the FDC founding president, is also at the centre of this sharp disagreement that has degenerated into personal attacks and turned the party headquarters in Najjanankumbi, Kampala, into a bed of unrest.

In DP, the split is between the party leadership of Norbert Mao and a group of seven MPs, led by Bukoto Central MP, Richard Sebamala, and Buikwe South MP, Dr Lulume Bayiga. 

This rift was widened by a deal Mao sealed with the NRM in July last year that saw him appointed Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs, and his secretary general, Gerald Siranda, elected as one of Uganda’s nine representatives to the East African Legislative Assembly.

CLANDESTINE MEETINGS

Already, Saturday Vision has learnt that political actors, mainly MPs, have triggered clandestine meetings to actualise the idea of building a formidable new formation ahead of the 2026 general elections.

The Kasambya County MP (NRM), David Kabanda, who is also the deputy spokesperson of the MK Movement, confirmed the development, noting that within their meetings, the lawmakers that are plotting a new formation have cast their net as wide as possible in order to catch as many change-seeking forces as possible.

 “The MK Movement welcomes all and our main objective is to have a peaceful transfer of power from the old guards to the young ones in 2026. So, there are some people in the opposition who are saying they have fought for change and failed to see any progress in the opposition and so these are the people we are looking forward to forming a new formation with,” he said.

The MK Movement has already struck deals with some NUP MPs such as Jimmy Lwanga (Njeru Municipality) and Dr. Twaha Kagabo (Bukoto South).

Kabanda said, it also sealed deals with DP’s main faction led by Mao and his deputy, Fred Mukasa Mbidde.

Busiro East, Medard Lubega Sseggona, who is also a senior NUP member argued that they have only seen differences between leaders whenever they are approaching elections and not between the core supporters/voters of the different political formations.

“So, the split in leadership has never split the voters. We need the leaders to work together and let no one tell you that we want to benefit from the acrimony currently in FDC. In NUP, we have values and objectives which would attract people anyway with or without squabbles in the different political parties,” he said.

Sseggona said the wrangles they see in the various political parties are regrettable and very unfortunate.

“We pray and hope that they will be resolved at the earliest but for us we shall remain there to receive anybody from anywhere but that is not the ultimate goal. The ultimate goal is working together, including with the liberal-minded people and progressive brains within NRM, to remove Museveni,” he said.

Asked about the clash of opinion over strategy, Sseggona said: “The approaches and the differences in strategy will always come up and they have all been there with different political formations but at the end of the day, what we agree on is what we do.”

He, however, said this is not to say a breakaway is not possible. “The sponsor for those ones [breakaways] remains Museveni and as long as he remains with sacks of money he has; he will buy off a few and those few will go. We will count our losses and move,” he said.

On his part, Sebamala said every faction in the opposition parties is going to put pressure on the main faction to make sure it relinquishes control of the party.

“However, should that fail, there will be a coalition of independent candidates from DP, NUP and FDC that will be led by a council and that will have a clear vision. It might not be registered as a party but it will be a strong pressure group of independent politicians,” he said.

Asked about unity in his own party, Sebamala said: “There is no unity in DP. There is a leadership that decided to go with President Museveni and the stranded people that I am taking care of, which has seven MPs out of nine.”

Within FDC, Buhweju County MP, Francis Mwijukye, who is also the party deputy treasurer, is one of the MPs who is supports a political gang that has vowed to wrest control of the party away from Amuriat and Nandala.

He said they are waiting for the party’s national council meeting to mob Amuriat and Nandala out of the party.

The FDC national council meeting was summoned this week on Friday, and many expect the meeting to trigger a number of radical changes that could either cause the party to split or create incentives for a new formation to emerge at Najjanankumbi.

“I don’t want to speak about a breakaway now because FDC is still one but anything can happen. One can hang up there as FDC leader, occupy a position, but leadership emanates from the will of the people. If this will is betrayed, then there is no leadership. There must be consensus and convergence of opinions,” Mwijukye said.

Recently Ssemujju said that: “If Nandala and Amuriat take charge of FDC, this party will end up where UPC and DP have ended”.

“In that case, I don’t want to be naïve; if they have taken the party, I cannot claim that I am still FDC,” he added.

However, the Nakaseke South MP (DP), Luttamaguzi Semakula, argued that new formations can happen because “some politicians of today are totally unreliable”.

“But new formations can only work and get the support especially of the masses if all the leaders of such formations are principled. The confusion we have today in all political parties is not about steering our country to a better place; it is about sharing the money they receive from various sources,” he said.

Yet these issues, MPs said are not only exclusive to the opposition parties.

The Woman MP for Kyegegwa District, Flavia Kabahenda (NRM), said that similar issues exisit within the ruling party.

“For me I never get anything new about what is happening now in FDC; it is going to happen everywhere, including in NRM where we call ourselves the mighty party. We have a lot of issues amongst us and President Museveni mentioned them when we were in Kyankwanzi (during the 10-day caucus in May),” she said.

She added: “The President said the people following his son MK are those who are aggrieved in the NRM. So what is happening in FDC happens everywhere because these are human beings and so, some breakaways may happen but if FDC recomposes itself, it may stabilise.”

ANALYST VIEW

Analysts such as John Kakande, who is also a veteran journalist, said that there is every likelihood that the Ssemujju’s group will break away to form a new formation hoping that there will also be breakaway groups from the fractured DP and NUP. 

“So, you could have three groups converging but the question would then arise as to whether they have a viable leader to galvanise the formation because I don’t see Besigye offering himself again for party leadership or even for a presidential candidate the way he has been talking,” Kakande said.

“So, the People’s Front for Transition pressure group that Besigye leads may be the nucleus of a new formation. So, the country may see another party emerging by 2026,” he added.