Experts push for stronger oversight as Uganda prepares for oil and gas expansion

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Uganda’s imminent entry into commercial oil production is sharpening calls for stronger governance, fiscal discipline, and regional cooperation to safeguard long-term development.

The warning emerged at the National Performance Review Conference (NPRC), where policymakers and development experts took stock of the country’s progress toward its development agenda.

Uganda is on track to begin its first commercial oil production in July 2026, with output projected to peak at about 230,000 barrels per day within two years, according to the Ministry of Energy.

Oliver Agho Bamenju, second vice chair, Bureau of the African Regional Forum on Sustainable Development, who is also an executive committee member of the Parliamentarians for Global Action (PGA) and a Cameroonian legislator, cautioned that Africa’s experience shows resource-rich countries can still face poverty and instability when institutions are weak.

Oliver Agho Bamenju, second vice chair, Bureau of the African Regional Forum on Sustainable Development. (Courtesy)

He pointed to Central Africa’s experience under the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) as offering practical lessons on how regional cooperation and institutional coordination can help manage shared challenges related to natural resources, security, and development.

Established in 1983, ECCAS is one of the African Union-recognised regional economic communities under the African Economic Community framework.

Agho said regional blocs are increasingly moving beyond trade integration to deeper collaboration in security, climate resilience, and financial stability.

“For us to achieve shared prosperity, regional blocs must go beyond trade agreements and build strong, resilient systems,” he said.

The three-day conference, convened by the Office of the Prime Minister from April 15 to 17 at Speke Resort Munyonyo, brought together senior government officials, development partners, civil society, academia, and private sector leaders.

Agho highlighted ECCAS cooperation in maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea—where member states coordinate intelligence and joint responses to threats—as a model East Africa could adapt in managing shared resources such as Lake Victoria and the broader Indian Ocean corridor.

He warned that oil wealth can quickly become a source of instability if poorly managed, citing fiscal volatility and overdependence on extractives in several resource-rich economies.

“With new oil discoveries in the region, strong fiscal discipline and diversification will be essential to avoid the resource curse,” he said.

He also flagged persistent financing gaps for small and medium enterprises, noting that many remain stuck between microfinance and commercial lending.

He proposed regional guarantee mechanisms, similar to those used in ECCAS, to expand access to credit and support entrepreneurship in East Africa.

On monetary integration, Agho said Central Africa’s shared currency arrangement has helped maintain macroeconomic stability, urging the East African Community (EAC) to prioritise strong institutions as it advances toward a monetary union.

Beyond economic reforms, he called for the integration of gender-responsive and climate-sensitive approaches into national planning to strengthen inclusive resilience.

The conference comes as Uganda pursues an ambitious plan to grow into a $500 billion economy by 2040 under Vision 2040 and the Tenfold Growth Strategy, which aims to expand GDP from about $50 billion within 15 years.

Opening the conference, Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja said the government has strengthened results-based management systems to improve implementation of national priorities and service delivery.

She said the forum provided an opportunity to assess progress, identify gaps, and refine strategies across sectors.

“This conference is not merely a routine engagement; it is a strategic platform for honest reflection on where we are succeeding, where we are falling short, and what corrective action is required,” she said.

Nabbanja added that the findings will inform policy implementation and strengthen accountability across government institutions, linking the discussions to the recent leadership retreat in Kyankwanzi focused on discipline, patriotism, and results.

Lisa Chesney, head of the Local Development Partners’ Group and British High Commissioner to Uganda, urged faster implementation of development priorities, warning that global financing constraints and declining donor support are slowing progress.

She said while Uganda is making gains, accelerated execution will be critical if national and global targets—including the Sustainable Development Goals—are to be achieved by 2030.

Other speakers included the deputy executive secretary of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, Mama Keita, who congratulated the Government of Uganda for the great initiative. ECA stand ready to accompany Uganda for her social and economic transformation drive. 

On his part, the United Nations resident representative in Uganda outlined and enumerated the support of the various UN agencies to the development of the agenda and joined his voice to commit UN agencies to keep supporting the development progress in Uganda.

Fabrice Davide, First Vice Chair of the Bureau of the African Regional Forum on Sustainable Development, who doubles as junior Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Livestock, in Mauritius, speaking on behalf of the Southern African Region, outlined some of the efforts in the Southern African Region that could be replicated in EAC and Uganda. 

Sering Falu Njie, in the office of the vice president of the Gambia, who is the third vice chair of the Bureau of the African Regional Forum on Sustainable Development, shared some best practices from the West Africa Region.