Why Museveni won with over 70%

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OPINION

By Haji Faruk Kirunda

Congratulations, Ugandans, upon going to the polls and successfully re-electing President Yoweri Museveni and a new lineup of legislators. The presidential elections brought a surprising turn with President Museveni seeing a rise in both percentage score and numerical votes. From 59.6% in 2021 to 71.2% this time, and from just over six million votes to 7.9 million votes.

My own prediction, as I wrote in these pages, was 70%. Some predicted 80%. In the weekend before the elections, an opinion poll by the Development Watch Centre put President Museveni at 57.19%, while around the same time, the US-based Robert Lansing Institute for Global Threats and Democracies Studies predicted a Museveni win between 65% and 75%. Polymarket, the world’s “largest prediction market” predicted all of 95%.

Every single electoral forecast put Museveni, seeking a seventh term in office, to carry the day. There were counterfeit opinion polls, “cooked” in boardrooms and behind screens, which called the election for the opposition, more so Robert Kyagulanyi of the National Unity Platform (NUP).

Regardless of the predictions by different groups, agencies and individuals, I was confident that the NRM presidential candidate would perform better than ever before. Why? The last time President Museveni scored over 70% was in 1996 when he got 75% against Dr Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere and Muhammad Kibirige Mayanja. In 2001, he got 69% against Dr Kizza Besigye and four others. In the subsequent elections, he scored between 59% and 62%. From a downward or flat trend to an upward one. Thank you, Uganda!

The spike in political fortunes of the President is down to a number of factors. Museveni, as a person, is more experienced, tried, tested and trusted as a statesman. He has been there, done that in elections, and learnt from past contests, which has enabled him to coordinate his campaigns better. On the other hand, his opponents adamantly believe him to be a spent force, underestimate his abilities and NRM’s touch with the grassroots. Result: declining opposition support, weak candidates and a lack of policy idea alternatives to challenge NRM.

Unlike 2021, when the NRM candidate suffered an onslaught of several years because of the age limit controversy, this time there was no excuse for the opposition to malign him before Ugandans, who have seen the President remain physically fit and mentally stable, in stark contrast to the grim predictions of his opponents.

While some thought that he could not campaign, he was able to visit every part of the country in person, unlike in 2020-21 when COVID-19 forced on us “scientific campaigns”, whereby voters did not have a chance to hear from him directly.

On the campaign trail, the President interacted with the populace, giving them a chance to ask questions on matters of importance and report grievances to him for his attention. No other candidate had viable answers to the people’s needs.

Then, the role of the Parish Development Model, this groundbreaking wealth creation strategy introduced during this current term of the NRM Government, has won many hearts for Museveni.

Kyagulanyi was full of rhetoric, offering little hope that whatever change he was drumming up was worth it, or that he was better than Museveni in anyway. Social media has been awash with clips of President Museveni at his best, articulating an intricate range of ideas — from history, politics, economics and service delivery — that other candidates had no chance of challenging even in articulation. You really see a man anointed to lead and to serve.

While Alliance for National Transformation candidate Maj. Gen. Mugisha Muntu and Forum for Democratic Change’s Nandala Mafabi, being senior politicians, attempted to propose some reasonable policy ideas; they lacked the definitive clout and promise of President Museveni.

Ugandans have seen enough elections to know who does not deserve to waste a vote on. Museveni always has the issues as well as the viability to garner support and protect it to form a government. All the other candidates against him come off as adventurers and dreamers without a proper plan for power.

None of the opposition groups had any hope of winning a majority in Parliament. Not even by forming coalitions would they be able to control the House. Without a parliamentary majority, it is useless and impossible to win the presidency. Only NRM fielded candidates in all the 354 direct constituencies.

For district and city women MPs, NRM put through candidates in all the 146 electoral areas in the country.

NRM had 48 unopposed candidates waiting to swear in. NUP had none, and certainly no other opposition party did, either.

Of the independent candidates, the majority were NRM-leaning, which meant that if they trounced party candidates, they would sit with the NRM, ready to impeach any minority bench “president”. Ugandans could see this risk. They did not want to waste their votes on non-starters.

Indeed, the results have put NRM in a clear lead in Parliament, reclaiming seats even in Kampala, where Hajat Minsa Kabanda won Kampala Central against NUP’s secretary-general Lewis Rubongoya, and over 10 other contestants. NRM also won in Kawempe South and Nakawa East, constituencies that have been in NUP hands.

It was also apparent that the previous elections, chiefly those of 2021, were heavily influenced by foreign hands in favour of the opposition.

Ever since President Donald Trump clamped down on interference in local politics by American groups, undue support that was going to disruptive groups, including illegal money and interference using information technology systems, power returned to the hands of Ugandans.

NRM also expertly handled its internal elections, that even where there were fallouts, the party caused dialogue among its members so as not to divide the support base, hence the collective effort towards victory.

The Constitution only requires one to garner 50%+1 to win the elections. Anything above that only affirms dominance, and the higher the percentage score of the winner, the more decisive the mandate.

This should translate to a more stable NRM Government that delivers on its promises and has the ear of every citizen, including those in oppositio,n whose collective gains it promised to protect in its winning manifesto.

Thank you, all Ugandans, for voting President Museveni and the NRM majority MPs. Let’s work together for peace and faster transformation.

The writer is the Special Presidential Assistant - Press and Mobilisation/Deputy Presidential Spokesperson faruk.kirunda@statehouse.go.ug 0776980486/0783990861