Why Museveni won, Kyagulanyi lost

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OPINION

By David Mukholi

As Ugandans headed to the polls on January 15, the defining question was simple: which candidate best reflected the country’s lived reality and future prospects? In the end, President Yoweri Museveni won, as the economic and political story unfolding across Uganda presented a stronger, more convincing case for continuity than the opposition’s call for change.

The 2026 elections became a referendum on stability versus uncertainty, visible progress versus aspirational promises. To understand why President Museveni — the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate — won and Robert Kyagulanyi lost, one must examine the economic and political realities that shaped voter perception.

Visible development

Across Uganda, economic change is no longer abstract. Large-scale investments are visible, a signal of confidence in Uganda’s stability and trajectory. Industrial parks in Namanve, Mbale, Kapeeka, Soroti and elsewhere are producing goods that once dominated import shelves, including iron sheets, cement, electronics, processed foods, beverages and household essentials. The “Made in Uganda” label is now common.

Perhaps, no symbol captured this transformation better than Kiira Motors’ Kayoola EVS electric bus. Designed and built in Uganda, it completed a 13,000km exhibition journey to South Africa and back home, securing orders and international attention.

For many Ugandans, these developments are not statistics. They are jobs in factories, trucks on newly paved roads, expanding towns, improved electricity supply, businesses and new markets for produce. This tangible progress formed a powerful political message, one that President Museveni consistently emphasised and that a large percentage of the electorate affirmed at the ballot.

Recovering economy

A few stories illustrate Uganda’s recovery better than coffee. Once neglected, coffee is today booming for many. Last year, Uganda exported 8.4 million 60kg bags, becoming Africa’s leading coffee exporter. This growth reflects expanded cultivation, farmer incentives and sustained government interventions such as Operation Wealth Creation, which distributed millions of seedlings nationwide.

This success contrasts sharply with the earlier decades when the Coffee Marketing Board’s monopoly delayed payments and discouraged farmers. Liberalisation reversed this trend, ensuring prompt payments and market-based pricing. Rising coffee incomes now translate directly into higher household purchasing power, particularly in rural areas where most voters live.

Gold has emerged as another pillar. Last year, Uganda’s gold exports reached sh18.23 trillion. With new deposits and the launch of the Wagagai large-scale mine in Busia, gold is now refined locally, adding value, creating jobs and boosting foreign exchange earnings.

Together, coffee and gold accounted for 76.8% of Uganda’s total exports last year, underpinning gross domestic product growth projected at between 6.5% and 7%, with the potential to reach double digits once the oil production begins this year. Tourism is yet another revenue earner growing due to improved security and stability.

Politics of livelihoods

The NRM’s 2026-2031 manifesto, boldly titled Protecting the Gains, directly challenged the critics who argue there are no achievements to defend. From his opening campaign rally, President Museveni framed the election as a choice between safeguarding the tangible progress and risking reversal. Central to this message was the Parish Development Model (PDM), a programme under which individuals get sh1m to start income-generating projects.

According to the NRM manifesto, 4.1 million households have benefited from PDM funds. Of these, 48% invested in livestock enterprises such as piggery, goats, cattle, sheep and poultry; 45% invested in food and cash crops, including coffee, tea, maize, cassava, onions, bananas and Irish potatoes; while 7% supported other income-generating activities. For these households, Protecting the Gains is not a slogan; it is about safeguarding livelihoods already built and incomes already improving.

This framing proved politically powerful. For voters who have expanded farms, started small businesses or increased household income through government-backed programmes, continuity represented security. Disruption, however well-intentioned, carried real risk.

Kyagulanyi and his National Unity Platform (NUP) chose to contest these gains, insisting there were none. While his promise of a better Uganda was emotionally appealing, it leaned heavily on aspiration rather than demonstrated economic experience. For many voters, particularly those already benefiting from the existing programmes, his message was good to hear but difficult to trust.

Uganda’s elections are rarely decided by rhetoric alone. They hinge on livelihoods. When factories reopen, exports rise, electricity stabilises, roads reach villages and incomes grow, incumbents gain political advantage.

President Museveni’s campaign approach, which focused on teaching Ugandans practical ways to get out of poverty through production, value addition and income generation, resonated strongly with the voters. By contrast, Kyagulanyi’s pledge to scrap the PDM shocked many, and his grievance-driven messaging and broad promises were less convincing to voters.

Stability and political choice

Uganda’s political history remains a silent but influential voter. Political turmoil delayed economic recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction, holding back development. Power generation now exceeds 2,000MW, road networks connect Uganda to regional markets.

Where Kyagulanyi fell short

Kyagulanyi energised some voters and articulated frustrations around corruption, unemployment, human rights and inequality. However, several factors limited his reach:

1) Limited rural penetration: Uganda’s electorate is predominantly rural, where improvements in farming, infrastructure and markets are widely associated with the NRM era.

2) Economic messaging gap: His campaign emphasised political reform and human rights more than economic continuity, creating uncertainty among voters whose incomes depend on current programmes.

3) Perception of inexperience: The NRM framed the contest as tested leadership versus unproven change, a convincing message.

4) Stability versus change narrative: For many Ugandans, “change” evokes memories of chaos, a perception Kyagulanyi struggled to overcome.

President Museveni’s victory was not merely a triumph of incumbency but a validation by the majority of the electorate that Uganda is on an upward economic trajectory. Kyagulanyi’s message of change could not outweigh the confidence that many Ugandans have in the current direction.

Uganda’s story is still unfolding. Stability, industrialisation, exports, innovation and oil promise further transformation. Voters chose continuity, not because all is perfect, but because the progress they see today gives them confidence in tomorrow.

So, on voting day, credibility mattered most. The side reflecting the majority’s lived experiences carried the day, giving President Museveni a fresh mandate.

The writer is a journalist

X: @dmukholi1

dmukholi@newvision.co.ug