Why 2026 poll is democratic melting pot

_______________

OPINION

By Immanuel Ben Misagga

In the raw aftermath of any election, the world rushes to crown a victor and bury the vanquished. Headlines, such as why so and so won and so and so lost, are commonplace.

Well, the 2026 Ugandan general election has not been any different in the media headlines. Yet, to view January 15 merely through the lens of President Museveni’s seventh-term victory and the National Unity Platform’s (NUP) reduced parliamentary numbers is to miss the profound and potentially transformative political evolution unfolding before us.

What we witnessed was not a static repeat of 2021, but a dynamic contest that brought out the best in both NRM and the opposition.

This is the sign of a maturing political arena, and it presents a critical opportunity for national progress, if both sides are wise enough to seize it.

NRM Strategic Correction

The NRM entered this race with its greatest vulnerability being the perceived stance of a long-standing leader. Yeah, 40 years in power. Their response was not complacency but correction. They meticulously studied the “wrongs” of the 2021 general election that catapulted NUP as a political force and the grievances from within the party.

So, their strategists, led by the pragmatic Speaker of Parliament Anita Among, engineered a campaign that, in the end, has consolidated their base and shrewdly exploited the opposition fractures. Among helped NRM pull out several independents to clear the way for her party candidates.

Just like the African National Congress in South Africa after the rise of Julius Malema’s breakaway Economic Freedom Fighters, NRM has proved in the 2026 election that it is a learning institution, adapting to survive and maintain its dominance.

Mass Mobilisation

Throughout the campaigns, the NRM candidate paid less attention to his opponents but focused on areas that have eluded his Government, such as commercial agriculture, industrialisation and poverty eradication. We should not forget that, before the campaigns, he was fresh from a countrywide Parish Development Model tour. The two-month campaign was a mere continuation of the mass mobilisation en route to the January 15 finale.

On the other side, I have noted that NUP and its principal, Robert Kyagulanyi (Bobi Wine), faced the Herculean task of transitioning from a protest movement into a credible, nationwide government-in-waiting.

NUP Missteps

To their credit, they have successfully solidified their position as the principal opposition force, annihilating breakaway factions and firmly owning their narrative as the “new breed.” Their surge in the court of public opinion is undeniable. However, in the crucial work of building a broad, cohesive coalition, cracks emerged.

For instance, NUP secretary-general Lewis Rubongoya had no business contesting as an MP without resigning his position. As it turned out, him and his deputy, Aisha Kabanda, spent most of the campaign period canvassing for their own votes instead of making strategies for Kyagulanyi.

This denied NUP the perfect strategy. The fact that both Rubongoya and Kabanda lost is a classic testament of expanding effort at the wrong task (both of them died at the same time on the front line, opening up the front door).

The very act of solidifying their core may have cost several other NUP candidates vital constituencies, and this should be a lesson in the delicate balance between purity of message and the arithmetic of power.

Rethink for 2031

The 2026 election setback should be a precursor for NUP to form a think tank manned by multi opposition strategists to evaluate their performance and design a watertight strategy for 2031.

So, where is the win-win in this result? There are so many positives to take from all sides.

NRM Mandate to Deliver

For the NRM, the win is a clear but costly mandate. It is a mandate that comes with an explicit invoice: the electorate has shown that discontent can be organised.

The victory is a licence to govern, not to ignore. The “corrected wrongs” from 2021 must now translate into tangible, inclusive governance that addresses the very issues NUP and the opposition so effectively highlighted on the campaign trail. Stability is their prize, but accountable delivery is their new imperative.

I lost count of the number of times Among addressed this matter at the NRM rallies during the campaign. And she was not alone. Richard Todwong, the party secretary-general, always tagged along.

For NUP and the opposition, their people spent the campaigns fighting their own MP battles. Nonetheless, they have been stress-tested. They now possess an invaluable experience and an understanding of their strengths and, more importantly, their fault lines.

I have observed that NUP’s reduction in MPs [provisionally from 58 in 2021 to 48 in 2026] is not a death knell but a diagnostic report. 

It reveals where coalition-building failed, where messaging resonated or faltered and what it truly takes to convert popularity into plurality across Uganda’s diverse political landscape.

Kampala and Wakiso combined may have more than three million voters and 12 MPs, but in political calculations, it is more significant to win over Karamoja-Sebei’s representation of more than 20 MPs with 300,000 voters. That is the reality.

There is no doubt the NUP momentum is real, but it now requires engineering to convert it into sustained electoral power.

How else can one explain the absence of a single successful NUP candidate north of Karuma?

So, the path forward demands strategic solutions from both sides for the ultimate benefit of Uganda in the years to come.

For the NRM, it ought to use this term to institutionalise systems, not just personal authority or glorification. Actively create visible, bipartisan channels for addressing national issues like youth unemployment and service delivery. A confident ruling party should welcome a strong, constructive opposition as a partner in national development, not just as a foe to be diminished.

For the NUP, the answer lies in building, not just rallying. The next five years must be a relentless project of institutional development beyond the magnetism of its leader. Deepen policy frameworks, nurture grassroots structures across all regions, and master the art of strategic alliance-building. Learn from the ANC-EFF dynamic: initial shockwaves must mature into sustained, broad-based pressure.

Lastly, for our democracy, there is a need to formalise the “correction” mechanism. Civil society and the electorate must champion a new norm where post-election analysis focuses on evolution, not just victory.

We need platforms that dissect why votes shifted, holding both sides to their promises and analysing their adaptations with the seriousness of a national audit.

What 2026 has gifted Uganda is the blueprint for a competitive, responsive multi-party democracy. The electorate has shown it is watching, learning and shifting its expectations. The trend is indeed international: power is never permanent, and opposition is never futile. It is a pendulum.

The 71% win for President Museveni demonstrates that the NRM have corrected their wrongs for now. Kyagulanyi and the NUP now hold the blueprint to correct theirs by 2031. This healthy, tense and dynamic tension is not the crisis of a nation, but the forging of one.

So, let us hope both sides read the results not as a final score, but as instructions for the next, more demanding level of our national contest. The true winner, in the end, must be Ugandans.

My grandfather in Kifuuta, Kyotera district, used to tell me how an egret keeps cattle but it never eats meat or drinks milk; it’s the cat that enjoys both yet it doesn’t know where the pasture is located and never minds cattle feeding.

The writer is a concerned citizen