Why Bobi Wine is in the race for president

Kyadondo East MP, Robert Kyagulanyi's early declaration of running for president in 2021 is of concern to Opposition political parties and individuals.

Popularly known by his stage name, Bobi Wine, the MP seems to have decided to go alone. Yet, the Opposition is mooting plans for a sole presidential candidate as a strategy to defeat President Yoweri Museveni and NRM in the next election.

DP is weaving the one presidential candidate strategy. It started by dealing with internal conflicts. As a result, the Uganda Young Democrats, the party's youth wing has reunited with the party.

And splinter factions like the Social Democratic Party, National Development Party and Truth and Justice have accepted to coexist in one party. There has also been a talk about DP-People Power union.

As this process is going on, Bobi Wine self-proclaimed leaders of ‘People Power' is on his own journey jeopardising DP's bid for a joint candidate.

By declaring his decision to stand for president, Bobi Wine is telling the Opposition that he has the strength and resources to run for the top job without them. Also it is a statement that he is the best choice.

Therefore, if they want a discussion about a sole candidate, they will hold talks with him and also consider him for the position.

Basically, there are four superficial factors that could have influenced his decision, which also sheds light on what politician he is. One, when he won the Kyadondo East seat in 2017 as an independent, he beat both the NRM and FDC flagbearers.

As expected, of a party chairman President Yoweri Museveni attended the final rallies to campaign for William Ssebalu, the NRM candidate. Though not the party boss Kizza Besigye, former FDC president and presidential candidate rallied support for Apollo Kantinti.

Besigye is the defacto leader of the Opposition. Also having unsuccessfully ran for president four times, he has become an elder of the Opposition and accepted as its face.

Even with participation of the political heavy weights rallying support for their candidates, Bobi Wine won the race. This could have instilled confidence in the musician turned politician and tempted him to decide to run for president.

Having defeated FDC candidates in a largely pro-FDC constituency, he thinks he is accepted by Opposition supporters (across the country) and these will be a base for him to win. And also by defeating the ruling party candidate makes him think the race for president will be a walkover as well.

Two, 2018 by-elections - Bugiri Municipality and Arua Municipality- gave him a feeling of invincibility after his involvement in the campaigns, so he believes, resulted in a loss for NRM and FDC.

Asumani Basalirwa (JEEMA) and Kassiano Wadri (Independent), who won the Bugiri and Arua seats respectively, were in the race with NRM and FDC candidates backed by their party officials.

Bobi Wine could have used this to decide to declare his candidature early. He was the chief campaigner for both candidates. But it is still contested whether it was a result of their personal strength or his backing that earned them victory. It is a fact, the two politicians are known figures in Uganda politics and stood against weak candidates fielded by NRM and FDC. Therefore, it is possible that with or without him they could have won.

The third factor is the talk that he has become the face of the Opposition. This stems from the fight he put up in Parliament during the debate on the Constitutional Amendment Bill in 2017. He emerged as the leader. The trade mark red beret fits him well and the slogan - People Power rolls off his lips musically.

It has become his ‘thing'. Increasingly he seems to be contesting for the position of face of the Opposition with Besigye. His followers have read this clearly, that is why they are targeting the former FDC leader. Besigye himself knows this, but he is downplaying it so that he is not seen as antagonising the young politician.

International limelight is the fourth factor that could have influenced Bobi Wine's decision to run for president without talking it over with Opposition leaders.

Following the fracas in Arua during the final by-election campaign rally in 2018, his arrest and alleged torture thrust him into international limelight. He was projected as a young politician who has emerged to challenge President Museveni.

To the international media and community, the arrest, incarceration and charging in court were interpreted as persecution. Also to them these actions portrayed a government in panic, which regaled Bobi Wine to think he is strong enough to take on President Museveni, if he stands, in the next election.

2021 election will be interesting.

Twitter:@dmukholi1