Opposition cracks help Nigerian president tighten grip

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A wave of defections from Nigeria's major opposition parties has swollen the ruling party's ranks, strengthening President Bola Tinubu's hand with less than two years to go until the next general elections.

Dozens of opposition politicians, including two sitting state governors, a former vice president and scores of federal and state lawmakers, have jumped ship since Tinubu took the reins of the west African country.

Critics accuse his government of fostering disaffection among the ranks of the opposition, while analysts warn the defections could allow the president to tighten his grip on power by weakening Nigeria's democracy.

Tinubu's All Progressives Congress (APC) and its rival Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) have traded places in power since the country returned to democracy in 1999, following decades of military rule.

The tide of desertions is further fraying the traditional two-party system while strengthening 73-year-old Tinubu's position and that of his party with only around 20 months to go until the next presidential vote.

Governors of two southern oil-rich states -- Akwa Ibom and Delta -- recently dumped the PDP for the APC. Both states have been PDP strongholds since 1999.

Vice President Kashim Shettima, more than a dozen APC state governors and tens of thousands of party members formally welcomed Akwa Ibom governor Umo Eno at a carnival-like weekend ceremony held at a 30,000-seater sports stadium.

Eno has said he was switching parties for the sake of his state and "the need to support our president... to finish the bold and audacious economic reforms that he has instituted".

The PDP and its fellow opposition Labour party are riven by internal wranglings which many of the defectors have cited as a reason for switching sides.

One-party state fears

The APC already commands a majority in the 469-seat national assembly. With the latest defections, the ruling party boasts of 23 out of 36 state governors while the PDP has 10. Other opposition parties have one each.

University of Lagos politics professor Bamidele Olajide told AFP the principle and philosophy behind politics in Nigeria "is what I call spoils politics. People are there for what they can get".

Other experts say the defections will further erode trust in the government and tilt the country towards one-party rule.

"This can only be addressed when we have strong and functional institutions and electoral process that cannot be undermined by powerful individuals," said Hamzat Lawal, the founder of the Connected Development NGO.

For his part Tinubu has dissociated himself and the APC from the opposition party infighting, while insisting that a "one-party state is not in the offing".

Voters 'not defecting'

Tinubu himself was in opposition for nearly 20 years after Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999.

He was instrumental in the formation of the APC, bringing together a few opposition parties in 2013.

Two years later, he pushed former president Muhammadu Buhari to a victory, which ended 16 years of rule by the rival PDP.

Yet all is not rosy in Tinubu's party, despite the flow of new members.

For one, it is not clear if the influx will translate to ballots among the tens of millions of disillusioned voters.

Many Nigerians are angry at the president's policies, blaming them for inflicting financial pain on ordinary Nigerians during the country's worst economic crisis in a generation.

Nasir El-Rufai, a former APC governor of northwestern Kaduna state, quit the APC in April for a smaller opposition Social Democratic Party, citing "internal dysfunction" for his exit.

For him, the gale of defections will not improve Tinubu's chances of re-election, if the president chooses to run again.

"The Nigerian people, those that actually vote, are not defecting (from the APC)," El-Rufai told journalists last month.

He is now championing a coalition aiming to dislodge the APC in the next general elections, and teamed with leading opposition figures, including former vice president Atiku Abubakar, to form the All Democratic Alliance (ADA).

The party, which they hope will oust Tinubu in 2027, is yet to be registered.