Uganda's poverty rate drops to 16.1% — survey

KAMPALA - Uganda’s poverty level has reduced from 20.3% in 2019/20 to 16.1% in 2023/24, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) survey shows. 

The National Household Survey (UNHS) report 2023/24 was officially released on Thursday, May 15 at Hotel Africana in Kampala, by finance state minister (planning) Amos Lugoloobi. 

It also indicated that the population living below the absolute poverty line in rural areas decreased from 23.4% to 19.4%, while in urban areas it decreased from 11.7% to 10.3%. 

The absolute poverty line measure for Uganda is $1 or about sh3,600 per person per day. 

The survey also indicated that seven million people are living below the absolute poverty line, with the Karamoja sub-region having the highest rate of 74.2%, which accounts for 13.4% of the national poverty. 

Poverty also increased in Teso from 21.9% to 29.8% and in Elgon from 13.2% to 14.1%, while it greatly reduced in Acholi from 67.7% to 20.5% and in Kigezi from 27.8% to 11.1%. 

Poverty also decreased from 29.4% to 18.9% in Busoga, 23.4% to 18.8% in Lango, 13.2% to 3.2% in Ankole and 13.8% to 9.3% in Buganda North. 

The survey also indicated that food expenditures were higher in rural compared to urban areas. 

At national level, Ugandans spent 44.2% monthly on food and non-alcoholic beverages in 2023/24, while in rural areas it was 52.3% and 35.5% in urban areas. 

When it came to housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 15.9% expenditure was recorded at the national level, while in the rural and urban areas it was 13.8% and 18.1% respectively. 

In terms of regions, northern Uganda saw 52.6% (highest) being spent on food and non-alcoholic beverages, western (51.5%) and eastern (48.7%), while central saw the least (35.9%).

Experts weigh in 

Joseph Enyimu, a development economist at the finance ministry, told New Vision that the decline in poverty is good news. 

“It shows you that government spending has been well targeted and people are taking advantage of the opportunities that it has created, such as good roads and electricity. People have been able to turn those into household enterprises, and the numbers show that those are driving poverty down,” he said. 

On consumption, Enyimu, who is the commissioner for the economic development policy and research department, said the desired trend is that households should spend a lower share of their expenditure on food over time.

“So, if they are spending a higher share of expenditure on food, it means they are left with little money to attend to other essentials of life, which include savings. So, we still need to lower that share of 44.2% of the expenditure being accounted for by food and non-alcoholic beverages,” he said. 

Enyimu also noted that although the overall incomes are increasing, the cost of food is also rising, especially in the urban areas.

“So, we see food inflation being something that the Government will need to pay more attention to make sure that food systems are efficient and that there is a distinction between production for food versus production for export. That balance needs to be gotten well for food security,” he said. 

Dr Sarah Ssewanyana, the executive director of the Economic Policy Research Centre, noted that while poverty and income inequality declined, national figures mask regional disparities. 

“To meet our poverty targets, we must disaggregate and set specific goals for rural, urban and sub-regional areas. Data isn’t just about numbers; it’s about truth, accountability and opportunity,” she said. 

Ssewanyana also said these findings should be utilised to inform targeted policies, budgets and interventions to address inequalities and unlock Uganda’s potential. 

Aggrey Kibenge, the permanent secretary in the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development, said that while poverty seems to be going down, the comparison between the poverty levels in the rural areas vis-à-vis the urban areas is expected. 

“But the comparison is largely to the disadvantage of the rural areas, and in terms of employment and livelihood, the sectors where we have bigger opportunities are mainly service and agriculture. So, we should redirect our efforts towards enhancing participatory involvement in those sectors where opportunities are,” he told New Vision. 

Lugoloobi said development is not about data alone. “It’s about a mother accessing healthcare, a youth getting a job, a child finishing school, a farmer earning from the land. Data must translate into real change in real lives. So, let’s not waste the momentum,” he said. 

The minister also said they have made progress as the Government, but they must leave no Ugandan behind. 

“Let this data guide our actions, strengthen our partnerships and energise our commitment to equitable, inclusive growth. The Government of Uganda remains committed to achieving Vision 2040’s goal to transform every Ugandan from a peasant livelihood into the money economy,” he said. 

Lugoloobi also said the Parish Development Model programme is the principal engine that will get all Ugandans into the middle-income economy. 

“We should not just have enough food for self-use, but also explore the commercial sector through value addition,” he said. 

The executive director of UBOS, Dr Chris Mukiza, said the survey is not only timely, but also necessary in facilitating government planning and policy formulation. 

“This explains why and how much the Government has invested in the production of statistics and development over the years. Data must remain at the heart of Uganda’s development,” he said. 

Mukiza also said he was confident that the data and insights generated will stimulate informed debate and support the attainment of both the national development goals and international development agendas. 

The UNHS is among the many routine surveys that the UBOS undertakes on a regular basis, and the latest is the eighth in the series of household surveys conducted since 1999. 

The immediate latest report was published in 2020. A total of 17,350 households were surveyed from 1,735 enumeration areas, selected using a sampling framework based on the 2014 National Population and Housing Census. 

The primary objective of the survey was to collect comprehensive demographic and economic data to inform policy decisions, track development progress and support national planning frameworks such as Vision 2040, the third National Development Plan, the Sustainable Development Goals and the African Union’s Agenda 2063. 

Inequality on the Gini scale 

The income inequality also reduced significantly in the entire country from 0.413 in 2019/20 to 0.382 in 2023/24 as measured by the Gini coefficient, which is a statistical measure used to determine the extent of income inequality within a population. 

In particular, there was a significant reduction in inequality in the northern region from 0.371 to 0.337 and the central region from 0.412 to 0.369. 

Buganda South, Elgon, Karamoja and Lango registered a significant reduction in income inequality between the two surveys, while Teso registered a significant increase from 0.288 to 0.346. 

Income inequality reduced from 0.428 to 0.304 in Buganda South, 0.372 to 0.303 in Elgon, 0.386 to 0.344 in Karamoja and 0.334 to 0.285 in Lango. 

The Gini coefficient ranges from 0 to 1, where 0 represents perfect equality (everyone has the same income) and 1 represents perfect inequality (one person has all the income). 

Stephen Baryahirwa, the UBOS head of department for social surveys and censuses, said while presenting the findings that Kampala, for example, requires an additional 0.3% of the resources currently being allocated to that area to move the poor above the poverty line.

For Karamoja, he said it requires 31.5% additional resources to move the poor above the poverty line.