Funding crisis sparks new HIV infections, warns Global report

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If US-supported HIV treatment and prevention services collapse entirely, UNAIDS estimates that an additional six million new HIV infections, and four million additional AIDS-related deaths could occur between 2025 and 2029.  This, according to the 2025 Global AIDS Update.

The report was launched by UNAIDS on July 10, 2025, in Geneva/Johannesburg under the theme: AIDS, Crisis and the Power to Transform. 

The report shows that a historic funding crisis is threatening to unravel decades of progress unless countries can make radical shifts to HIV programming and funding.

The director of planning and strategic information at the Uganda AIDS Commission, Dr Vincent Bagambe, said that if the external fund dries up and the Government does not step up, the country will see a spike in new HIV infections.

This is because people living with HIV will not get their medication, and without treatment, more AIDS-related deaths will occur.

“This is the reason Uganda AIDS Commission continuously engages Government. Interventions that help to prevent HIV transmission need funds. HIV prevention and treatment were largely funded by partners,” he said.

Uganda contributes to the budget for treatment, drugs and laboratory monitoring. While the other component comes from Global Fund and PEPFAR.

“If the external funding reduced, Uganda would not be able to cover the treatment gap without an increase in the budget,” he said.

Call to Action

The global HIV response cannot rely on domestic resources alone. In regard, the 2025 Global AIDS Update urged the international community to come together to bridge the financing gap, support countries to close the remaining gaps in HIV prevention and treatment services, remove legal and social barriers, and empower communities to lead the way forward.

Dr. Bagambe noted that the cost of providing HIV services is enormous. The budget for providing HIV services is more than half of the health services. Therefore, without partners Government would struggle; consequently, affecting the quality of services.

He further noted that external funding should not have dried up suddenly, but reduced gradually.

“So as the donors pull out, Government is systematically taking up the component that partners have been shouldering,” he said.

On January 20, 2025, US President Donald Trump signed several executive orders, including the fund freeze that has greatly affected HIV prevention and treatment services across the globe.  

UNAIDS emphasises that every dollar invested in the HIV response not only saves lives, but also strengthens health systems and promotes broader development goals.

Since the start of the epidemic, 26.9 million deaths have been averted through treatment, and 4.4 million children have been protected from HIV infection through vertical transmission prevention.

The burden

Globally, in 2024, 630 000 people died from AIDS-related causes - 61% of them in sub-Saharan Africa. Over 210,000 adolescent girls and young women aged 15 to 24 acquired HIV in 2024 - an average of 570 new infections per day.

Bringing it closer to home, the Epi-data country estimates for December 2023 reveal that HIV prevalence among the adult population (15-49 years) has continued to decline. It is now at 5.1% from 5.5% in 2020.

The prevalence is still higher among women (15 to 49 years) at 6.6% compared to men in the same age bracket at 3.6%. This according to the annual Joint AIDS Review report 2023/2024.

Overall, there has been a declining trend in the new HIV infections from 46,000 in 2020 to 38,000 in 2023. Worth noting, the majority were adolescent girls and women, contributing about 30% of the new infections. 

In 2020, the country was registering 21,000 AIDS-related deaths, which is a slight reduction from 20,000 in June 2024, against the 2025 target of 10,800.

An estimated 1,492,410 people were living with HIV as of December 2023.