Why Uganda’s orphan population is declining

KAMPALA - Uganda’s orphan population has registered a slight decline over the past two decades, but stark regional disparities and overlapping vulnerabilities continue to put millions of children at risk, a new government report shows.

The Orphans and Other Vulnerable Children Monograph 2024, released by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) on Thursday in Kampala, indicates that orphans now account for 12.9 percent of the child population, down marginally from 13.2 percent in 2002.

Despite the decline, the scale remains significant, with an estimated three million children having lost one or both parents.

Data from the 2024 national census reveals a pronounced regional imbalance, with northern Uganda bearing the heaviest burden. 

The Madi sub-region — covering Moyo, Adjumani and Obongi districts — recorded the highest prevalence at 20.1 percent, meaning one in five children is an orphan. Karamoja and West Nile followed at 19.3 percent and 18.3 percent, respectively.

In contrast, Kampala and Teso sub-regions posted the lowest rates at 9.3 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively.

Beyond parental loss, the report highlights deep educational and economic vulnerabilities. 

Only 30 percent of orphans aged three to five are enrolled in school, while just over half of those aged six to 17 are attending. 

Additionally, one in five orphans aged five to 17 is engaged in child labour, often at the expense of education.

The monograph also tracks trends in child motherhood — defined as girls aged 10 to 19 who have given birth. 

Nationally, the rate declined from 4 percent in 2002 to 1.5 percent in 2026. Bunyoro sub-region recorded the highest prevalence at 2.2 percent, followed by Lango at 1.9 percent, while Kampala had the lowest rate at 0.7 percent.

Child marriage among girls aged 10 to 17 has also dropped to 1.49 percent.

However, Prof. Jovan Lubaale, a co-investigator on the report, flagged a worrying rise in early marriage among boys. 

He linked the trend to disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, noting that many boys who entered informal work during lockdowns opted not to return to school, choosing immediate income over education.

Responding to the findings, Aggrey Kibenge, the permanent secretary of the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development, said the government is shifting towards a more inclusive child protection model. 

While the National Child Policy 2020 recognises all children as inherently vulnerable, he stressed that those in extreme conditions — including refugees, street-connected children and children with disabilities — remain a priority.

Kibenge said government is developing a national social registry to improve targeting of support programmes and is in discussions with the finance ministry to establish a special grant for households caring for children with disabilities.

He also acknowledged the growing challenge of street children, particularly from Karamoja, noting that a comprehensive strategy is being developed to address its root causes.

Development partners welcomed the report but called for more detailed data.

Dr. Moses Sichei, the chief of social policy at UNICEF, described the report as a critical tool for implementing the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child, helping government identify and reach the most vulnerable children.