Global tensions push coffee future prices higher as Uganda’s farmers gain

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Global coffee prices have surged on the international market following geopolitical tensions that disrupted a key global shipping route, triggering higher prices for both Robusta and Arabica coffee and boosting returns for Ugandan farmers.

Joshua Himbisa, a coffee farmer and trader from Rwampara in western Uganda, is enjoying the fruits of his garden. He said that as farmers, they are doing well and urged people to plant more coffee.

“Coffee is not bad. Last season, the prices climbed up to sh15,000 per kilogramme for Fair Average Quality (FAQ) Robusta coffee. We expect that prices will even be better in the season we are entering,” he said.

According to the latest market update, the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), which tracks Robusta coffee futures, closed significantly higher.

The May 2026 position settled at $3,625 per tonne, equivalent to about sh13,452 per kilogramme. At the same time, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in New York, the benchmark for Arabica coffee trading, also recorded a sharp increase.

The May 2026 Arabica contract closed at 291.90 US cents per pound, translating to roughly sh23,913 per kilogramme.

Analysts attribute the sudden rally in coffee prices to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The conflict involving Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for global trade.

The narrow waterway serves as a major artery for shipping, particularly for oil and other commodities. Its disruption sent shockwaves across global supply chains and significantly affected transportation costs.

According to a market analysis report by the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), the closure of the strait pushed up global shipping rates, insurance premiums and fuel costs, factors that quickly fed into commodity markets, including coffee.

As a result, the ripple effects have already reached coffee-producing countries, including Uganda, where farmers are experiencing improved farmgate prices.

In the local market, farmers selling Fair Average Quality (FAQ) Robusta coffee are now receiving between sh12,000 and sh12,500 per kilogramme, reflecting the stronger international demand.

Farmers dealing in Arabica parchment are earning even higher prices, with returns ranging between sh14,500 and sh15,500 per kilogramme.

Similarly, Dried Uganda Arabica (DRUGAR) coffee has also registered a price increase, with clean coffee selling between sh14,000 and sh15,000 per kilogramme.

Market data further shows that trading activity remains strong. Registered sales from the previous trading day indicate that 4,579 bags of Robusta Screen 15 were sold at a highest price of 182.00 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately sh14,399 per kilogramme.

Coffee remains one of Uganda’s most important export commodities, and global price movements often have a direct impact on farmer incomes.

Bernad Sabiti, an expert from Besmark Coffee Company, noted that because coffee is traded internationally, the sector is highly sensitive to external shocks such as geopolitical conflicts, weather disruptions and fluctuations in shipping costs.

“Whatever happens in the international market affects the local market too. Because of the Gulf War, the costs of transport are high, and the supplies are squeezed, pushing prices up. So, yeah, we are enjoying some increased price moments, and even the dollar rate is affecting the coffee market,” he said.

He said that with the current market rally driven by global logistics disruptions, Ugandan farmers could benefit from improved earnings in the short term if the upward trend in global prices persists.