Global coffee futures prices surge amid Brazil drought

Global coffee futures prices have climbed sharply, driven by dry weather in Brazil and tightening supplies in international markets.

Both Robusta and Arabica coffee futures prices are maintaining strong performance in the global markets, according to data from the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE).

LIFFE indicates that the November to December 2025 contract arbitrage between the London and New York markets widened to 169.84 US cents per pound, reflecting a 45.53 percent price discount for London Robusta coffee.

The November position closed at $4,560 per tonne (approximately sh15.6 million), gaining $80 (about shillings 273,600) from the previous close, while the January position settled at $4,467 per tonne (close to shillings 15.3 million), up by $76 (about shillings 259,920).

Similarly, data from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) showed a strong rebound in Arabica coffee futures, with prices rising sharply on Monday as excessive dry conditions persisted in Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions, raising fears of damage during the critical flowering phase of the 2026/27 crop.

The December position closed at 385.20 US cents per pound, gaining 12.15 US cents, while the March position closed at 366.95 US cents per pound, up by 10.60 US cents compared to the previous session.

On the local scene, Robusta coffee dominated sales, with Robusta Screen 15 registering the highest traded volume at 1,500 bags of 60 kilogrammes each, followed by Robusta Screen 12 at 960 bags.

Among Arabica varieties, Bugisu AA, Bugisu A, and Bugisu PB fetched the highest prices at sh28,666, sh28,591, and sh28,591 per kilogramme, respectively.

At the farm gate level, the October 14, 2025, coffee market analysis from the agriculture ministry showed that the week’s coffee prices remained stable.

Kiboko sold between shillings 6,000 and 6,500 per kilogramme, FAQ (Fair Average Quality) ranged from shillinhs 13,000 to 13,500, Arabica Parchment traded between shillings 14,000 and 15,000, while Drugar Coffee (Clean) fetched between 13,000 and 14,000.

Farmers across coffee-growing regions continue to express cautious optimism despite price volatility. “I have some coffee, and I am planting more. I get money from my Robusta coffee once a year,” said Henry Mitabiro Rutafurwa, a coffee grower. 

He added, “Some money from tea helps me to look after the coffee garden during the months when there’s no income from coffee."

For smaller-scale farmers, financing remains a major challenge. Naboth Nuwagaba, a grower from Western Uganda, noted that “most small coffee farmers with less than an acre get money in advance from businessmen for coffee that is not yet ripe. It helps them buy food and meet daily needs before harvest time.”

Coffee trade performance

In terms of trade performance, Uganda’s coffee exports remain on a positive trajectory.

The ministry’s August sector report revealed that the country exported 855,441 bags of 60 kilogrammes each, valued at $202.8 million (shillings 693.6 billion) at an average price of $3.95 (sh13,509) per kilogram.

Although this represented a US cents 24 drop from $4.19 (sh14,330) per kilogram in July 2025 and a US cents 46 fall from $4.41 (shillings 15,082) in August 2024, the volume exported grew by 2.45 percent compared to the same period last year.

Over the 12-month period from September 2024 to August 2025, Uganda exported 7.9 million bags worth $2.2 billion (about shillings 7.52 trillion), up from 6.7 million bags worth $1.4 billion (shillings 4.79 trillion) in the previous year.

This marks a 17.9 percent increase in volume and a remarkable 58.7 percent rise in value, underscoring the country’s growing strength in the global coffee market.