Africa can turn global trade disruption into an opportunity for reform

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By Allen Sophia Asiimwe

At the recent GTR East Africa conference in Nairobi, one question stood out: how can East Africa position itself more strongly amid shifting global trade patterns?

Over the past five years, the region has navigated successive disruptions that have reshaped supply chains and trade flows. The Covid-19 pandemic drove ocean freight rates up by 500% between 2020 and 2021. The Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed wheat prices up by 55% and disrupted fertiliser supplies across African markets. The Red Sea crisis compounded these pressures.

UNCTAD's 2024 analysis found that supply chain lead times increased by 35% as vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days to shipping journeys and reducing effective global container capacity by about 9%.

Import costs rose, delivery windows narrowed, and business planning became less predictable. A 2024 Descartes survey found that 62% of global supply chain leaders now regard large-scale disruption as a permanent feature of global trade.

For East Africa, these disruptions have tested the resilience of economies where trade contributes at least 50% of GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yet disruption is also accelerating investment in regional trade, alternative corridors, digital trade systems and intra-African market integration.

Shortening supply chains is creating new impetus for industrial capacity to serve growing regional demand. More importantly, the disruptions reinforce the need for trade systems that are faster, more predictable and more connected. East Africa is already responding with notable momentum.

The UN Economic Commission for Africa projects that the region will lead the continent in GDP growth at 5.8% in 2026, while intra-African trade has rebounded sharply, expanding to $220.3 billion in 2024. UNECA’s 2025 Economic Report on Africa estimates that full implementation of the AfCFTA could increase continental GDP by $141 billion and lift intra-African trade by $276 billion by 2045.

Targeted investments in trade infrastructure have delivered tangible results. One-stop border posts, corridor upgrades and customs modernisation have significantly reduced transit times, with over 15 OSBPs generating more than $63 million in annual savings and cutting border crossing times by 70% - with Busia showing a reduction from 14 hours 20 minutes in 2011 to 3 hours 40 minutes in 2017. Independent ODI research shows dwell-time reductions of up to 74% at major crossings, reinforcing the scale of efficiency gains.

Sustaining these gains demands continued scale. World Bank research shows that 75% of delays in moving goods across borders stem from facilitation inefficiencies rather than physical infrastructure gaps- meaning much of the friction costing East African businesses time and money is solvable.

UNCTAD’s 2024 Economic Development in Africa Report found that non-tariff barriers restrict African trade three times more than tariffs, while road transport costs account for up to 29% of intra-Africa trade costs compared with just 7% for trade beyond the continent. In a volatile global environment, certainty is a competitive asset. Economies with efficient, predictable trade systems attract investment, adapt faster and grow more sustainably.

 At TMA, we see four priorities shaping the region's competitiveness in the years ahead and a catalyst for deeper structural transformation.

 The first is efficiency, driven by investment in both physical infrastructure and digital trade systems. Where agencies operate in silos, delays persist; where systems integrate, throughput improves. Coordinated border management, integrated customs platforms and real-time cargo tracking have already reduced clearance times across several corridors. At the Port of Mombasa, road and traffic management upgrades have reduced travel times by nearly half. The next frontier lies in scaling these gains through smart corridor systems, data integration and advanced analytics.

The second priority is trusted trade documentation. As markets integrate, the ability to verify certificates quickly and securely becomes a market-access imperative. Exporters depend on standards certification, certificates of origin and sanitary and phytosanitary documentation to trade efficiently.

With TMA's support, Kenya has developed the Integrated Export and Import Certification System- a digital platform that streamlines certification, automates processes and enables real-time verification across agencies - improving transparency and reducing administrative friction.

TradeMark Africa-supported digital systems have delivered reductions in certification time of up to 78% and costs of up to 91%. The AfCFTA's Digital Trade Protocol reinforces these gains, establishing the regulatory backbone for trusted digital documentation across African markets.

 The third priority is market access and standards. African producers are increasingly diversifying beyond traditional export destinations, strengthening regional value chains and expanding intra-African trade. But access depends on efficient certification systems.

In Mozambique, TradeMark Africa has supported the rollout of the ePhyto system, enabling exporters to obtain phytosanitary certificates digitally and reducing processing times from as long as 12 days to two to three days. Such reforms improve reliability, strengthen confidence among trading partners and help exporters sustain market access.

 The fourth priority is cross-border payments. Many small businesses still face avoidable costs and delays when trading across borders. The African Development Bank estimates Africa’s annual trade-finance gap at more than $120 billion, disproportionately affecting SMEs, which account for over 90% of enterprises and more than 60% of jobs across the continent.

Payments through traditional banking channels can still cost between 7% and 20% of transaction value and take up to five days to settle. The Pan-African Payment and Settlement System now connects 19 countries through 150 commercial banks and can settle transactions in local currencies within 120 seconds. At TradeMark Africa, we are partnering with RECs and governments to scale cross-border payment solutions for smaller and medium-sized businesses operating across borders.

 What gives confidence is that many of these reforms are already underway. Governments, regional institutions and the private sector are investing in trade facilitation, digitalisation and regional integration at a pace that would have been difficult to imagine a decade ago.

Global trade patterns will continue to evolve. Supply chains will continue to adjust. But these shifts also create space for Africa to strengthen its position within regional and international trade. The task ahead is therefore not simply to respond to disruption. It is to build systems that allow African economies to trade more efficiently, compete more effectively and capture greater value from regional markets.

If East Africa sustains the momentum of reform, it can emerge not only more resilient, but also more competitive in a changing global economy - delivering the growth, jobs and opportunity its people deserve.

Chief of Programmes and Deputy CEO, TradeMark Africa