When order outlasts chaos: Why Museveni matters for Uganda’s future

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OPINION

By Boaz Byayesu, Virginia, USA

In January 2026, Uganda will once again stand at critical political and economic crossroads. After nearly four decades of leadership under President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, the central question facing the electorate is not simply who should govern next, but whether the nation can afford the risks that come with untested leadership at a moment when regional instability, fragile growth, and global headwinds converge.

Uganda’s track record under Museveni is not merely history to be debated, but a living argument about the dangers of gambling on ambition without experience.

Stakes of 2026

When Museveni’s National Resistance Army marched into Kampala in 1986, Uganda was a broken state. The economy had collapsed, the rule of law was in tatters institutions had disintegrated, and the country bore the scars of Idi Amin’s brutal dictatorship and Milton Obote’s failed second presidency. Since 1986 to this day,

Uganda has moved from being a state of anarchy to socio-economic and political stability; from a state of despair to a state of hope; and from absolute poverty to being a land of opportunity.

Uganda’s GDP growth that year stood at a mere 0.39 percent, and GDP per capita hovered around 330 US dollars. Within a generation, the economy recorded growth rates above ten percent in 2006, and per capita income nearly tripled to close to 1,000 US dollars by 2024. These shifts were not accidental. They were the result of painful reforms, disciplined macroeconomic management, and a leadership style that prioritized stability over disorder.

Recovery and Stability

Uganda sits at the heart of the Great Lakes region, a zone defined by volatility, genocide in Rwanda, coup d’états and civil wars in Burundi, repeated wars in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and civil strife in South Sudan. Since 1986, Uganda itself has faced internal convulsions, including the Lord’s Resistance Army insurgency, yet has emerged as a regional stabilizer rather than a failed state. Uganda contributes to peacekeeping in Somalia, South Sudan, and the Congo.

Museveni’s chairmanship of the Regional Oversight Mechanism for the Peace, Security, and Cooperation framework in the Great Lakes underscores Uganda’s centrality in regional diplomacy, based on his sound experience in armed conflict resolution and his tested and proven capabilities in solving political problems and challenges. In a region where the absence of order often leads to state collapse, Uganda has remained intact, functional, and influential.

Vision and Patriotism Julius Nyerere of Tanzania often argued that education and privilege impose a duty to serve the collective good. Leadership, he warned, should never be a matter of chance or selfish pursuit. Uganda’s history confirms this truth. The chaos of the 1970s and 1980s was fuelled by personal ambition overriding national interest. Museveni’s tenure, for all its controversies, has been anchored in a larger vision of national unity and regional order.

The lived experience of navigating crises, wars, and regional negotiations to create and maintain peace, reliable security, socio-political and economic stability, fundamental freedoms, and steady progress cannot be replaced by slogans or shortcuts.

Today’s untested aspirants, such as Bobi Wine, Nandala Mafabi, and Amuriat Patrick Oboi, speak passionately about change. Yet the substance of what they can realistically deliver remains uncertain.

Uganda is increasingly becoming the nation its people deserve. Ugandans are happier, healthcare systems are strengthening, education investment is rising, and inequality is steadily declining. The foundations laid over nearly four decades—economic recovery, regional influence, infrastructure expansion—offer a platform that can be built upon.

Leadership in East Africa

Leadership in East Africa has followed varied trajectories. Julius Nyerere united Tanzania, and he instilled a moral and national purpose, though constrained by economic scarcity. Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, Tanzania has registered notable economic growth within a tightly controlled political environment. Kenya’s William Ruto presides over a more open democracy with a vibrant private sector but recurrent episodes of electoral tension, GenZ riots and economic volatility.

Museveni’s Uganda sits between these models: more open than Tanzania, more stable than Kenya, militarily stronger than neighbours, and a consistent contributor to regional peace, as the renowned battle-hardened, professionally competent, and disciplined UPDF is always called upon to intervene, confront, and settle the ceaseless armed conflicts in the troubled region.

South Sudan’s Salva Kiir presides over a fragile state, where intermittent conflict and weak institutions highlight the consequences of leadership untested in crises. By contrast, President Museveni’s Uganda demonstrates how stability, continuity, and crisis-tested leadership can transform national fortunes. His long record of war experience, regional diplomacy, and state-building brings a foresight and risk management capacity that political newcomers simply cannot match.

From Collapse to Growth Uganda’s macroeconomic progress is evident. From near-zero GDP growth in 1986 to consistent expansion in the 2000s and 2010s, the nation has strengthened fiscal institutions, modernized infrastructure, and positioned itself as a regional hub for trade and investment. Oil production, finally poised to come onboard, promises further growth, projected at over seven percent annually in the near term, with potential double-digit expansion as projects mature. These achievements underscore the importance of continuity in leadership to safeguard ongoing investments.

Why Stability Matters

The next phase of Uganda’s development, 2026 to 2031, will hinge on preserving continuity. Political disruption could derail oil and infrastructure projects, scare off investors, and unsettle fragile institutions. Uganda’s youth population is expanding, unemployment remains high, and climate pressures strain agriculture. Handling these challenges requires seasoned leadership.

Museveni’s critics may decry authoritarianism, yet under his hand, Uganda has avoided the implosions that have plagued neighbours. To gamble with that stability now is to risk sliding backwards into turbulence that Ugandans still vividly remember. In East Africa’s troubled landscape, tested experience, proven security credentials, and a track record of resilience remain Uganda’s strongest guarantees.

In the end, the choice before Ugandans is not between Museveni and perfection, but between continuity under a proven, steadfast leader and the perils of a leap into the unknown. History shows that political experiments in fragile states can be catastrophic. Stability, competence, and a defined national purpose have carried Uganda from the brink of collapse to steady progress under Museveni. That is not a record to be discarded lightly. In the years ahead, Uganda must press forward with what has been built, not gamble on starting over.

The writer is a Ugandan based in Virginia, USA