Uganda has the forecast; what it needs is action
The SOND weather forecast offers Uganda an opportunity to prepare for floods, landslides and disease outbreaks before they overwhelm communities and health services, writes Dancan Muhereza.
Dancan Muhereza. (Courtesy)
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OPINION
By Dancan Muhereza
Uganda knows the rains are coming. The question is whether the country is prepared for what comes with them.
Last month, the Department of Meteorology under the Ministry of Water and Environment released the September-October-November-December (SOND) seasonal weather forecast. The outlook indicated that most parts of the country are likely to receive near-normal to above-normal rainfall, with some areas expected to continue experiencing rainfall into January 2027.
For many Ugandans, good rains are usually welcome news. Farmers anticipate better harvests, water sources are replenished, and pasture improves. But when rains become prolonged and intense, they can quickly transform from a blessing into a national emergency. Floods, landslides, disease outbreaks, damaged infrastructure and disrupted livelihoods often follow. The real question, therefore, is not what the weather will be. It is what the weather will do.
That question matters particularly for Uganda's health system.
The country has experienced the effects of heavy rains before. During the 2023-2024 El Niño period, flooding and landslides affected communities in several parts of Uganda, damaging infrastructure, disrupting transport and placing additional pressure on already stretched public services. Those experiences should have taught us an important lesson: disasters do not become crises because of the weather alone. They become crises when institutions fail to prepare.
Many health facilities already operate under significant constraints. Staffing shortages, medicine stock-outs, limited ambulance services and inadequate infrastructure remain challenges in many districts. When floods wash away roads or landslides cut off communities, access to healthcare becomes even more difficult. Patients struggle to reach facilities, health workers face transport challenges, and deliveries of medicines, vaccines and laboratory supplies may be delayed.
At the same time, the demand for health services often rises during periods of heavy rainfall. Flooding can contaminate water sources and increase exposure to waterborne diseases. Stagnant water can create conditions that favour the spread of other climate-sensitive illnesses. Communities affected by displacement, property destruction and income loss often require additional health and social support at precisely the moment when health services are under greatest pressure.
The burden is not shared equally.
Women, children, older persons and persons with disabilities are often among the most affected during weather-related emergencies. Women and girls may face particular challenges when flooding disrupts access to sexual and reproductive health services. Interruptions to family planning, antenatal care, safe delivery services and HIV treatment can have serious consequences, especially in rural and hard-to-reach communities.
This is why preparedness cannot begin after roads have been washed away and health centres flooded. By then, the opportunity to prevent the worst impacts has already passed.
Fortunately, Uganda has one advantage many countries lack: advance warning.
Meteorological authorities have provided an early forecast. The information exists. What remains is turning that information into action.
District leaders, health officials and disaster-management structures should already be asking practical questions. Which health facilities are most vulnerable to flooding? Which communities are likely to be cut off if roads become impassable? Are emergency medicines adequately stocked? Are referral systems functional? Are there plans to maintain essential services if facilities become inaccessible?
Equally important is coordination. Climate-related emergencies do not respect institutional boundaries. The Ministry of Health, Office of the Prime Minister, Ministry of Water and Environment, local governments, humanitarian organisations and development partners all have a role to play. Effective preparedness depends on how well these institutions work together before disasters occur, not after.
Communities also need to be at the centre of preparedness efforts. Early warning messages are only useful if they reach people in forms they can understand and act upon. Information about weather risks, disease prevention, safe water practices and emergency response measures should be communicated clearly and consistently, particularly in districts with a history of flooding and landslides.
The forecast therefore presents both a warning and an opportunity.
It warns that the coming months could bring significant health and humanitarian challenges. But it also offers a rare chance to act before disaster strikes. Too often, Uganda's response to extreme weather begins when lives have already been disrupted, and damage has already been done. Forecasts are treated as information rather than as a trigger for preventive action.
That approach must change.
The measure of preparedness is not how quickly institutions respond after a crisis happens. It is whether they take action while there is still time to reduce the impact of that crisis.
The rains are coming whether Uganda is ready or not. The country's health system cannot stop them. But it can prepare for their consequences.
The SOND forecast should not remain a weather advisory filed away on government shelves. It should serve as a call to action. If Uganda uses the warning wisely, communities will be better protected, health services will be more resilient and lives will be saved. If not, the country risks repeating lessons it should already have learned.
The writer is Project Officer-Climate Change at Reproductive Health Uganda