Uganda at China-Africa crossroads: Turning trade ties into industrial transformation

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OPINION

By Derrick Kansime Kamugisha

As the Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo concluded on June 15, 2025, in Changsha, Hunan Province, its significance reverberated far beyond exhibition halls. Held under the theme “China and Africa Work Together to Achieve Modernisation,” this year’s expo marked a decisive evolution in the trajectory of China-Africa relations, transitioning from symbolic engagement to pragmatic, long-term economic cooperation.

For Uganda, it was not just another diplomatic event, but a moment of strategic clarity and a timely opportunity to align its industrial ambitions with one of the most tested development pathways of the 21st century. With over 30,000 participants, 4,700 enterprises, and cooperation projects amounting to over $113.9 billion announced, the expo showcased more than just trade and investment opportunities. It emerged as a platform where diplomacy was translated into real industrial possibilities.

Uganda’s participation was notably assertive and aggressive. Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja held bilateral talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening cooperation. Wang highlighted a striking 90% increase in Uganda’s exports to China in the first quarter of 2025, a figure that not only reflects momentum but also underscores the growing relevance of Uganda in Beijing’s African economic diplomacy.

These discussions were more than just ceremonial. They were anchored in the framework of the “Ten Cooperation Plans” proposed by President Xi Jinping, encompassing critical areas such as infrastructure, digital transformation, and youth innovation. For Uganda, these represent not abstract pledges but actionable pathways to shift from raw commodity dependence to dynamic industrialisation. As the country confronts structural challenges such as unemployment, trade imbalances, and infrastructural gaps, the Chinese model, adapted with local specificity, offers a viable roadmap. Indeed, the lessons from China’s transformation are compelling.

From an agrarian economy in the 1970s to a global industrial powerhouse today, China’s rise has been fuelled by deliberate policy choices: investing in large-scale infrastructure, developing special economic zones, streamlining bureaucratic procedures, and strengthening vocational education. These themes were visibly reflected at the expo, where exhibitions spanned clean energy, construction machinery, smart agriculture, and e-commerce.

The relevance of this study to Uganda is unmistakable. With a young population and vast untapped resources, the potential for industrial take-off is immense, but only if supported by the right institutions and strategies. The development of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) in locations such as Namanve, Kapeeka and Mbale can serve as magnets for foreign investment, technology transfer, and manufacturing. By aligning these efforts with Chinese firms that already have a proven record on the continent, Uganda can de-risk industrialisation while accelerating productivity growth.

However, industrial transformation must also begin from the ground. Agriculture, which employs the majority of Ugandans, remains largely subsistence-based. The Changsha Expo’s emphasis on agricultural modernisation offers timely insights. The technologies showcased were not theoretical, ranging from drone-assisted irrigation to post-harvest cold storage and mechanised tools. The embryos were ready for transfer. By partnering with Chinese institutions and firms in agricultural equipment manufacturing and training, Uganda can build a more resilient, higher-value food system.

Crucially, this modernisation must be accompanied by human capital development. One of China’s overlooked advantages is its strong investment in technical and vocational training aligned with industrial demand. Uganda must follow suit. By scaling up vocational training programs and linking them with local and Chinese firms operating in Uganda, the country can ensure that its youthful workforce is equipped with the skills required for 21st-century manufacturing, agro-processing, and logistics.

Moreover, the Expo introduced a critical new frontier: digital trade. The “China-Africa Famous Brands” exhibition, which celebrated successful Chinese ventures in Africa, underscored the growing importance of branding, certification, and digital visibility in Africa.

This is a wake-up call for Uganda’s entrepreneurs. To thrive in global markets, especially China’s, Ugandan products, whether coffee, vanilla, or shea butter, must meet global standards in packaging, quality, and traceability. E-commerce platforms now enable small producers to reach international markets, but only if they are supported by digital infrastructure and appropriate regulatory frameworks. Therefore, while the opportunities are clear, the true test lies in the execution. It is not enough to sign memoranda of understanding or issue joint communiqués.

Uganda’s institutions, particularly the Ministry of Trade, Uganda Investment Authority, and Parliament, must now coordinate implementation. This includes following up on signed agreements, conducting feasibility assessments, securing investor commitments, and ensuring that projects under the Belt and Road Initiative are aligned with Uganda’s Vision 2040. Local governments must play a proactive role in ensuring that infrastructure projects have community support and deliver local value.

Importantly, Uganda should not attempt to copy China’s model. As Wang Yi emphasized at the expo, African nations must pursue development paths suited to their own conditions. The future lies not in imitation but in adaptation. While China built its early growth around export manufacturing, Uganda may find its comparative advantage in a more hybrid model that combines green energy investments, agro-industrial corridors, regional trade logistics, and digital innovation. This tailored approach allows Uganda to leapfrog the traditional stages of industrialisation, embracing technologies and partnerships that align with its goals.

The 2025 Expo was therefore not merely a trade event; it was a declaration that Africa, and Uganda in particular, is no longer on the periphery of the global economic discourse. It is at the centre of new development thinking, which prizes infrastructure, entrepreneurship, and industrial value chains over extractive dependencies and donor-driven aid models. For Uganda, the path forward is defined not by passivity but by proactive and strategic engagement.

As President Xi Jinping once remarked, “The future of China-Africa cooperation is as broad as the vast land of Africa.” Uganda stands at the threshold of a new era in its development. Whether it walks through that door will depend on its willingness to act boldly and strategically and to embrace cooperation, not as charity, but as a partnership of equals.

From the gleaming pavilions of Changsha to the factory grounds of Namanve and Kapeeka, the message is clear: Uganda has entered a new era. Whether this becomes a story of transformation or a missed opportunity depends on the decisions made today. The opportunity to industrialise, diversify exports, and build a resilient economy is within reach. What remains is the political will, institutional coordination, and public-private commitment to make it happen. As the continent moves toward shared modernisation with China, Uganda must rise not as a follower but as a co-architect of its own destiny, forging a future built on production, innovation, and prosperity for generations to come.

The writer is a PhD Candidate with University of Technology, Beijing, China

derrickansime@gmail.com