Uganda's power sector is a story of progress, not darkness

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OPINION

By Julius Wandera

Gawaya Tegulle’s commentary, “A Year of Darkness, 2025: Many More Dams, Much Less Electricity..." in a local daily of December 28, 2025, raises important questions about Uganda’s electricity sector.

While public debate on such matters is vital, it must also reflect the technical and economic realities that shape the performance of the Electricity Supply Industry. Uganda’s current phase is not a story of failure, but of deliberate restructuring, a transition aimed at securing long-term reliability, affordability, and sustainability.

Tegulle suggests a "paradox" where increased generation has resulted in "less light." On the contrary, 2025 marks the most significant turning point in Uganda's energy history. To characterise it as a "year of darkness" ignores the systemic transition currently underway to ensure long-term reliability and affordability.

1. The “Paradox of Plenty” and Strategic Energy Security

Uganda's installed capacity now stands at 2,052.6 MW following the full commissioning of the 600 MW Karuma Hydropower Plant. Mr Tegulle's suggestion that this is "theoretical power" misunderstands how energy systems evolve. In energy planning, generation must always lead demand. This deliberate surplus ensures the “spinning reserve” needed to guarantee energy security and attract industrial investment.

Indeed, this surplus has already attracted large consumers, including new data centres that require up to 500 MW. Uganda's electricity sector is no longer planning for survival; it is planning for industrialisation.

The Tangible Impact of Isimba and Karuma HPPs

The suggestion that new dams have not translated into more electricity is contradicted by the grid’s performance metrics. Before the Isimba Hydro Power Plant (HPP) was commissioned in late 2018, Uganda’s installed capacity stood at 963 MW. The addition of Isimba (183 MW) and the subsequent full commissioning of Karuma HPP (600 MW) in June 2024 steered the country’s capacity to 2,007 MW.

More importantly, the energy actually dispatched to the grid—the electricity consumers use—has risen sharply. In 2018, dispatch was 4,078 GWh. By 2024, following the full integration of Karuma, this jumped to 6,623 GWh. In 2025 alone, Isimba and Karuma contributed approximately 27% of the total power to the grid. To date, Isimba has contributed a cumulative 6,647 GWh, while the newer Karuma has already added 2,022 GWh. These are not "idle" assets; they are the backbone of our current supply.

2. Reliability Challenges and Grid Modernisation

The recent power interruptions are not evidence of failed generation, but rather of a distribution network that's in need of modernisation and significant investment. The Government's takeover of distribution through UEDCL in April 2025 was a structural reform aimed at resolving this very issue. To support this, the Government has already secured USD 100 million for immediate grid reinforcement, focusing on replacing fragile infrastructure and expanding the "Path of Light" to the West Nile and Northern regions, a practical step toward long-term reliability.

3. Tariff Modernisation and Consumer Protection

The assertion that electricity is a "luxury" is contradicted by the facts. The Lifeline Tariff (UGX 250 for the first 15 units every month) continues to protect low-income consumers, reaching over 200,000 households. ERA has also maintained the Declining Block Tariff for manufacturers and the Cooking Tariff (UGX 412 per unit) to promote the use of clean energy.

With Karuma’s commissioning, the weighted average generation tariff has actually decreased, and ERA’s transparent quarterly tariff reviews ensure these savings are progressively passed on to consumers.

4. Ending “Deemed Energy”

Mr. Tegulle's concerns regarding the so-called "paying for darkness" refer to the historical challenge technically known as "deemed energy." This challenge has been systematically addressed. The completion of 400kV transmission lines from Karuma to Kawanda and Olwiyo, along with the construction of the Agago substation, has eliminated key bottlenecks that once forced Uganda to pay for unused power. The focus is now on developing more power generation facilities as demand is rising at an unprecedented level.

Conclusion

Building a resilient power sector is an engineering and financial marathon, not a sprint for political optics. The year 2025 does not represent “darkness,” but rather a year of rationalised efficiency and strategic realignment, where short-term inconvenience gives way to long-term stability. I invite readers to monitor the sector's progress through the published tariff review and sector performance reports, available at www.era.go.ug.

Uganda is not slipping into darkness; it is powering toward an inclusive, data-driven, and secure energy future, one that lights every home and fuels every industry by 2030. It is stepping into a well-planned, state-led future where electricity catalyses socio-economic transformation, lights every home, and fuels every industry by 2030.

The writer is the Director, Corporate and Consumer Affairs at Electricity Regulatory Authority