Tenfold growth strategy: Opportunity or moment that could be missed

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OPINION

By Robert Mpuuga

At a recent community gathering, a speaker explained Uganda’s ambition to grow its economy tenfold; from about $50b today to nearly $500b by 2040, through a deliberate focus on agro-industrialisation, tourism, mineral development (including oil and gas), and science and technology. As the discussion opened, a small business owner asked a direct question: “This sounds good, but will people like us really benefit? And how different is this from other government plans?”

It is a fair question, one that will determine whether Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy becomes a transformational success or another well-intentioned policy that benefits only a few.

To its credit, the Government has taken the unusual step of bringing this conversation to churches, communities, and ordinary citizens. This reflects an understanding that economic transformation must be inclusive.

But inclusion will not happen automatically; it will depend on how businesses respond and how you and I get involved.

The strategy signals a fundamental shift: From a consumption-driven economy to one that is export-led, industrial, and investment-driven. This is not a minor adjustment; it is a complete rewiring of how value will be created in the economy. And with such shifts come both opportunity and risk.

The opportunity is clear. Growth will be driven by agro-industrialisation, oil and gas, tourism, and technology. These sectors will generate new demand, new markets, and new financing flows. Businesses that align early will grow rapidly.

But the risk is equally real. Businesses that remain informal, undercapitalised, or focused on low-value trading may find themselves left behind as competition intensifies and standards rise. In agriculture, for example, the future is not in raw production, but in processing, storage, and export aggregation. In oil and gas, the opportunity lies not only in extraction, but in the vast supply chain that supports it. In tourism, value will increasingly shift toward experiences, mid-market offerings, and digital platforms. In manufacturing and trade, success will come from import substitution and regional expansion.

The common thread across all these sectors is this: Value will shift to those who can organise, scale, and deliver consistently.

This raises an important question: Are businesses and leaders preparing for this shift?

Positioning for this new economy will require deliberate action. Businesses must move beyond basic trading into value creation. They must formalise their operations, maintain credible financial records, and build structures that can attract financing and partnerships. They must also think regionally, not just locally.

Equally important is the role of finance. As the economy transforms, banks are increasingly positioning themselves not just as lenders but as partners in growth; supporting businesses with trade finance, working capital solutions, foreign exchange services, and structured financing aligned to these emerging sectors.

Beyond funding, there is also a growing need for financial literacy and business capacity building. Many financial institutions and development partners are expanding training programmes to help businesses understand how to structure their operations, access markets, and utilise financing effectively. Entrepreneurs who invest time in building this capacity will have a significant advantage.

Ultimately, the tenfold growth strategy will not fail for lack of ambition. It will succeed or fail based on execution, by both the government and the private sector. For business owners and business development professionals, the choice is clear. This is either a once-in-a-generation opportunity to grow with the economy, or a moment that passes, leaving only a few to benefit. The difference will not be the strategy itself, but how businesses respond to it.

The writer is a treasury and financial markets practitioner and director of sustainability at the Association for Business Development Professionals Uganda