On the recent fluctuations in coffee, cocoa prices
Coffee and cocoa prices are fluctuating, but the current market adjustment does not signal a disappearance of demand for either commodity, writes Frank Tumwebaze
Frank Tumwebaze. (File)
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OPINION
By Frank Tumwebaze
Ugandans, recently, I have been receiving concerns from farmers, traders and stakeholders about the ongoing fluctuations in the prices of coffee and cocoa, which have understandably caused worry among key stakeholders in these important agricultural value chains.
I wish to convey my sympathies to some farmers and traders who might have been affected. Indeed, the international commodity markets (including for coffee and cocoa) are experiencing a period of adjustment and volatility. However, the current price fluctuation should not be interpreted as a disappearance of demand for coffee or cocoa. It is largely a response to changing expectations in global supply and inventories.
Coffee and cocoa are internationally traded commodities. Their prices in Uganda are, therefore, influenced not only by what happens on our farms, but also by production, inventories, weather, shipping, currencies, consumption and buying decisions in major producing and consuming countries.
In the case of coffee, the international market has recently come under downward pressure because of increased availability from major producing countries, particularly Brazil and Vietnam. The August — September 2026 market analysis reported by Barchart shows that coffee prices have been under pressure as Brazil’s harvest comes to market and Vietnam’s exports increase. The International Coffee Organisation has also projected increased global coffee production, while USDA projections point to further growth in global production in the 2026/27 season.
By September, 3, 2026, Arabica coffee had fallen to a five-week low of about $3.03 per pound, while Robusta was around $3,426 per tonne. Our price analysts attributed the immediate pressure partly to increased Brazilian exports as that country’s harvest approached completion. This tells us that the current price movement is not unique to Uganda. It is part of a wider international market adjustment.
The same applies to cocoa. Cocoa prices have also experienced substantial fluctuations. Reuters reported on September 3 that London Cocoa prices fell 5.9 per cent in one session after reaching a one-year high, while New York Cocoa also declined by 5.9 per cent.
On September, 18, Barchart reported that December New York cocoa had fallen about 7.1% in one day to a seven-week low, largely on expectations of increased near-term supplies. Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest for June 2025-June 2026 had increased by 30%, while shipments in the current international cocoa marketing year were also substantially higher than the previous year.
These developments have contributed to the recent correction in international cocoa prices.
The ministry has been closely monitoring both the international market and the domestic farm-gate market. Comparing the same period this year with the same period last year.
In September 2025, average farm gate prices closed at:
-Robusta Kiboko: Sh6,000-sh7,000/ kg
-Robusta FAQ: sh13,500-sh14,000/ kg
-Drugar: Sh13,500-14,000/kg. The first half of September 2026 indicative market prices stood at:
-Robusta Kiboko: Sh5,000-sh6,000/ kg
-Robusta FAQ: Sh11,500-sh12,000/ kg
-Arabica parchment: About sh15,500-sh16,000/kg; and
-Drugar: Sh14,000-sh14,500/kg. The change in Robusta FAQ prices, which is the more appropriate benchmark for comparing commercial quality coffee, is sh2,000 per kilogramme, which translates to about a 14.5% decline. For Arabica coffee, however, the situation is different. For example, for Arabica parchment, the price change moved from sh14,500/ kg in 2025 to sh15,750/kg in 2026, gaining about 8.5%.
There is also a domestic supply issue that needs to be understood. Uganda has experienced a prolonged period of drought and unusually high temperatures in several coffee growing areas, including parts of Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule, Luwero and other regions. The resultant water stress has affected coffee flowering, cherry development, bean filling and, ultimately, processing out-turn and quality. It is estimated that the adverse weather conditions have contributed to an out turn that is approximately 10 per cent below the normal average in affected areas.
The impact of this drought on coffee production at farm level has been felt at the national level. Uganda exported 846,376 bags of 60kg in July 2026, compared with 997,105 bags in July 2025, representing a decline of 15% in volume. Export earnings also declined from $250.7m to $204.1m, a reduction of about 18.6 per cent.
Consequently, traders are becoming more cautious and selective in the way they offer prices to different quality categories. Farmers bringing well-dried, properly harvested and good-quality coffee may be offered a substantially better price than one bringing immature, poorly dried or mixed coffee.
Even with this situation, most serious to note is that our farmers are not close to making losses! A price decline is not the same thing as making a loss. A farmer who was receiving shs13,750 per kilogramme last year and is now receiving sh12,500 has experienced a reduction in income per kilogramme, but this does not automatically mean that the farmer is producing below cost.
Profitability depends on the farmer’s production costs, productivity per acre, quality, post-harvest handling and the form in which the coffee is sold.
Uganda’s coffee farming business models show that farmers who improve productivity and undertake basic value addition can break even when the price of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) is at sh7,000.
Farmers affected by severe drought may experience considerable financial loss. Farmers and coffee players should not lose courage. The resilience of Uganda’s coffee industry still makes coffee production and associated value chain activities more lucrative and profitable. The sector has also continued to attract international demand because of the quality and distinctiveness of Ugandan Robusta and Arabica. Uganda now has a national coffee brand that markets us globally.
Coffee and Cocoa remain extremely sensitive to weather. Brazil, Vietnam, West Africa and other major producing regions will therefore continue to influence international prices.
For Uganda, our priority is to restore and protect production following the recent drought. The return of adequate rainfall, combined with good agronomic practices, should help improve flowering, cherry development and the quality of subsequent harvests.
Coffee consumption globally remains substantial, while cocoa processors and chocolate manufacturers continue to require reliable supplies. The present cocoa correction is partly being driven by improved supply expectations and higher inventories, but weather and production risks remain.
It is, therefore, reasonable to expect a slight price recovery and stability over the coming six months.
Government is not sitting back. MAAIF will continue to monitor international and domestic coffee prices and provide indicative market information to farmers and stakeholders; Strengthen coffee production and productivity, including rehabilitation and establishment of new coffee gardens; and support recovery mechanisms to improve farmers’ resilience to drought and other climate shocks;
To our farmers, do not panic. Do not harvest immature coffee. Do not compromise quality. Farmers can increase their returns considerably by moving from raw Kiboko into better processed and graded coffee.
To traders, continue buying and supporting farmers and maintain transparent and quality-based pricing. Uganda’s international reputation is a national asset. Protect the quality of Ugandan coffee and cocoa in international markets.
The Government recognises that price stability alone is not enough. We must also address the underlying production challenges facing farmers, particularly the effects of drought, prolonged dry spells and access to inputs.
Government is implementing a number of measures to support farmers to recover from the effects of adverse weather, mitigate future climate risks and increase productivity and incomes.
Currently, the Government is supporting farmers with fertilisers and other productivity-enhancing inputs in key producing regions. The fertiliser being distributed under the Presidential Directive is intended to subsidise and improve access to inputs, restore soil fertility and improve crop productivity.
Uganda is strengthening irrigation as a major response to climate variability. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries is working together with the Ministry of Water and Environment and other relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies under an inter-ministerial approach to expand access to water for agricultural production. We shall continue to scale up irrigation schemes across the country and promote smaller and farmer-managed irrigation systems.
Under the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project, farmers are being supported with improved planting materials, appropriate technologies, water management practices and knowledge that enables them to adapt to changing climatic conditions.
Uganda remains an important producer and exporter, and the fundamentals of our coffee sector remain strong. Government, through MAAIF, will be announcing (in the short and medium term) more strategic interventions to support farmers and all other actors in our beverage crops (coffee and cocoa) value chains.
I thank you.
The writer is the Minister for Agriculture Animal Industry and Fisheries