Making electricity stable public good is foundation to Uganda's tenfold growth strategy

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OPINION

By Imam Mugisha  

The Ugandan government, through the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development, set a bold target to increase the size of the economy from about $50b in the 2023/24 financial year to $500b by 2040. This tenfold growth strategy is anchored in four primary sectors: agro-industrialisation, tourism development, mineral development, as well as science, technology, and innovation, collectively referred to as the ATMS. 

Issues in energy access, transition and the creation of pathways for clean energy use, as well as their adoption, are some of the central debates surrounding Uganda’s quest for the tenfold growth strategy. These are key enablers for Uganda to achieve her vision of “A Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country” by 2040. However, the goal of expanding Uganda’s economy tenfold is ambitious.

While attainable, realising this target demands thorough strategic planning, substantial investments, a deliberate and dedicated effort to address the likely bottlenecks, such as the low rural electrification, weak grid infrastructure, high costs for consumers, reliance on weather-dependent hydro power, outdated transmission lines and financing gaps for renewables, among others, are still affecting Uganda’s universal electrification agenda. 

For a strategy that is entirely built on electrification, what remains unclear is how this strategy can succeed when electricity is still a luxury for tens of millions of Ugandans (40%).  

Electrification is the backbone of Uganda’s Vision 2040 and her tenfold growth strategy, as explicitly stated by the available policy document. In the arrangement, electricity is expected to power clean cooking, electric mobility, digital services, industrial growth and emissions reduction. However, this tenfold growth strategy is bound to collapse if the power system meant to put it forward remains unstable. 

Talking about electric power unreliability, in 2025 alone, Uganda experienced frequent power outages and localised disturbances. These were due to ongoing issues with ageing infrastructure, system overload, and significant vandalism. Each incident plunged Uganda into darkness, sometimes reducing supply to near zero. 

Figures from Uganda’s rural communities also contradict the present, as only about one third of rural residents have access to electricity. For the millions constituting the rest, darkness is normal. Modern energy consumption per capita remains low, around 30 times lower than the average in advanced economies. Poverty reduction promises tied to energy access will only remain aspirational unless rural electrification moves faster. 

Another worrying part of it is not ambition but assumption. The tenfold growth strategy assumes institutional capacity that Uganda has not yet built. Electricity distribution companies are still financially distressed and operate in controversial ways. Metering issues also persist. Tariff debates still exist. Regulatory enforcement is uneven. These are all governance failures. 

Uganda does not need to abandon its tenfold growth strategy, but to be true to ourselves, honesty matters. Fixing the power sector should not be a side issue, for it is the necessary foundation for attaining a tenfold growth strategy. Without stable, affordable and accessible electricity, industries will not scale, clean cooking targets will be aspirational, and our development agenda will remain theoretical. 

Uganda’s development agenda cannot be achieved by theoretical targets alone. It can only be achieved when our plans reflect a remedy to a situation at hand, when electricity stops being a privilege or a luxury to millions of Uganda and becomes a stable public good. And until then, Uganda may achieve her development ambitions. 

Uganda’s Vision 2040, the National Development Plan, and Energy Transition Plan all place energy infrastructure at the heart of the country’s economic transformation. The Government’s target of achieving 52,000 megawatts of installed capacity by 2040, through a diversified energy mix of hydro, solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear power, reflects the scale of anticipated demand. 

Over the past decade, Uganda’s electricity sector has undergone a significant transformation. The country’s installed generation capacity has more than doubled from approximately 850MW in 2014 to over 2,052MW in 2025. Despite all these developments, access to electricity remains low. 

In conclusion, expanding Uganda’s economy tenfold is a daunting yet achievable goal. It requires a multi-faceted approach that combines strategic investments in key critical sectors, continued strengthening of the fundamentals of growth, namely infrastructure development, technological development, human capital enhancement and sound fiscal management.  

Overcoming entrenched challenges such as rampant blackouts, shutdowns, high electricity costs, tariff debts and metering issues. With the right and effective policies, strong government commitment, as well as broad public support, Uganda can realise its economic potential and achieve not just high but also shared growth 

The writer is a Natural Resource Economist