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How about the Kenya—Ganda confederation?

For a long time, the President has been insistent and passionate about East African integration, often flaunting the 1964 Uganda Argus newspaper with the headline, ‘FEDERATION THIS YEAR’. However, President Museveni is growing older, and the East African Federation dream is growing thinner.

Duncan Abigaba.(Courtesy)
By: Admin ., Journalist @New Vision

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OPINION

By Duncan Abigaba

Recently, while wishing the First Lady a happy 78th birthday, President Yoweri Museveni said he was praying to God to take them to 100 years, so that they, among other good things, could see the birth of the East African Federation, which he termed the Insurance of Africa against any future domination.

For a long time, the President has been insistent and passionate about East African integration, often flaunting the 1964 Uganda Argus newspaper with the headline, ‘FEDERATION THIS YEAR’. However, President Museveni is growing older, and the East African Federation dream is growing thinner.

The East African Community (EAC) is a long-dreamed-of coming. It started with baby steps during the colonial period in 1900, when Mombasa was established as a customs collection centre for Uganda. In 1905, the East African Currency Board was set up to issue currency for Kenya and Uganda. In 1917, Uganda and Kenya formed a Customs Union, which Tanganyika later joined in 1922. In 1948, Uganda, Kenya and Tanganyika formed the East African High Commission to manage common economic, transport and research services.

In 1961, the trio formed the East African Common Services Organisation (EACSO), which served as a regional administrative body, bridging the gap between colonial rule and independent governance. EACSO oversaw the East African Posts and Telecommunications; the East African Railways and Harbours, where my late grandfather, Blasio Marunganwa, served as the chief accountant based in Nairobi; the East African Airways; the East African Air Aviation Services; and the East African Development Bank. In 1967, EACSO transformed into the EAC headquartered at Arusha, and ran a common market, common customs union and a common currency board. In 1977, EAC collapsed due to the different economic and political systems and disagreements over the benefits accruing from the common service organisations.

When Uganda stabilised under President Museveni in 1993, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania signed an agreement to revive the East African Co-operation. In 1997, the agreement was upgraded into a treaty, and on November 30, 1999, the treaty establishing the EAC was signed.

EAC set out a four-point agenda: customs union, common market protocol, monetary union and political confederation. The community has since expanded to include Burundi, DR Congo, Rwanda, Somalia and South Sudan. While progress has been registered on the first two, the last two remain significantly behind schedule. The only possible shot at a confederation while President Museveni is still here is the Kenya Uganda confederation, which Prof. Ephraim Kamuntu called Kenya Ganda during the recent NRM MPs retreat at Kyankwanzi. Why Kenya Ganda?

For a long time, Kenya has held Uganda’s hand on both the economic and political journeys. When Uganda was in political turmoil, Kenya provided a haven and livelihood to thousands of Ugandans seeking asylum. And when there was an economic breakdown due to Idi Amin’s irrational economic policies, Kenya supplied Uganda with necessities, including soap, sugar and salt.

Under President Museveni, and with Kenya’s economic co-operation, Uganda’s economy has expanded twentyfold since 1986, from a net importer of basic commodities to a net exporter of most consumer goods, rivalling Kenya’s economic numbers. In 2022, Intra-EAC exports amounted to $6,366.27m while Intra-EAC imports amounted to $4,544.63m (EAC Trade and Investment report, 2022). In 2024, the trade between Uganda and Kenya exceeded $1.5b, with Kenya serving as Uganda’s largest export destination. Uganda exported $527m to Kenya, including tea, milk and ceramics, while Kenya exported $951m to Uganda, including cement and refined petroleum.

Currently, Kenya and Uganda are undertaking the $6b Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) project, with Kenya’s side surveying and compensating the 369km Naivasha-Malaba route, while Uganda is undertaking similar activities on the 273km Malaba Kampala route. The SGR will reduce the cost and time of cargo movement between Mombasa port and inland East Africa. We want to see Museveni happily retired at Rwakitura in a vibrant and secure East African Federation, but it seems he will not until he births the federation. We will leave this to the diplomats.

The writer is a graduate of MA in international business of the Higher School of Economics — Russia, and a former presidential assistant

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