Here are take-aways from Kawempe North byelection

By John Kakande 

KAMPALA - As the dust from the Kawempe North byelection settles down, it is important to reflect on the lessons learnt and the emerging salient electoral issues. 

The NRM has rejected the results and is considering challenging the victory of Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola, the flag-bearer of the National Unity Platform (NUP). 

President Yoweri Museveni said a criminal investigation has kicked off in the byelection due to alleged ballot stuffing, altering results, destruction of ballot boxes at Kazo-Angola and Kawempe Mbogo mosque zone, campaigning at the polling stations, intimidation and violence. 

What is clear, though, is that the byelection results did not differ from the long-established electoral pattern for Kampala city. Nalukoola won the elections with 17,764 votes against 8,593 votes received by the NRM flag-bearer, Faridah Nambi. 

In the 2021 elections, NUP’s Muhammad Ssegirinya (deceased) polled 41,197 votes, while NRM fl ag-bearer Tom Johnfi sher Kasenge came third with 6,946 votes behind Sulaiman Kidandala who polled 7,512 votes. 

Kidandala, currently incarcerated in South Korea, stood as an independent candidate after NUP opted to give the ticket to Ssegirinya. 

In the 2021 presidential election, NUP presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine polled 391,787 votes (72.8%) in Kampala against 128,658 votes (23.9%) received by Museveni. 

In the election for the district woman MP, Shamim Malende (NUP) polled 314,865 votes against 94,870 votes received by Nambi (NRM). 

Therefore, the Kawempe North byelection results suggest that there has not been any big shift in the support for the NRM and the Opposition. The byelection campaigns showed the NRM has not changed its worn-out political massaging. 

John Kakande

It is notable that the byelection registered a very low voter turnout, much lower than 50% of registered voters. While byelections have generally registered low voter turnout, it is important to note that for Kampala, it is emerging as a pattern. 

Since this is an Opposition stronghold, it is the Opposition that is more adversely impacted by low voter turnout. In the 2021 presidential elections, there were 1,280,409 registered voters in Kampala and only 43% voted. 

Although Bobi Wine received 72.8% of the vote in Kampala, the figures merely came to 391,787 votes. If there was high voter turnout, Bobi Wine could have received a million votes in Kampala. 

A similar pattern was witnessed in Wakiso district which, in 2021, had 1,154,857 registered voters. Out of these registered voters, only 49.7% actually voted. 

Although Bobi Wine received 75.6% of the votes in Wakiso, they totalled only 425,002 votes. With very high voter turnout, Bobi Wine could have polled close to a million votes from Wakiso. 

Thus, he could have bagged close to two million votes from Kampala and Wakiso. During the Kawempe North byelection, the Electoral Commission instructed that there should be no vehicles without registration number plates in the constituency on the voting day. 

This seems to have been ignored and some of the security elements appeared to be taking instructions, not from the Electoral Commission, but from elsewhere. 

There were reports that some goons freely gained access to some polling stations and destroyed ballot boxes as the vote counting was about to kick off in Kazo-Angola and Kawempe-Mbogo zone. 

This is unsettling. It was reported that the goons appeared to be in touch with some government big-shots who were involved in the electoral process. 

Is it possible these big shots had personal motives to mess up the exercise, after pocketing the campaign money and failing to deliver victory for the NRM candidate? 

The writer is a veteran journalist