The rise of party flagbearers vs independents

___________________

OPINION

According to preliminary reports, independent candidates in several areas outnumber those running under political party tickets in nominations for local council positions.

This trend is likely to continue in contests for parliamentary seats and even the presidency. Out of the 220 individuals who picked presidential nomination forms this year, only a small fraction are affiliated with established political parties.

In fact, fewer than 10 parties are fielding presidential candidates. These include the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), the National Unity Platform (NUP), Democratic Party (DP), National Economic Empowerment Dialogue (NEED), Alliance for National Transformation (ANT), Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC), and the Common Man’s Party (CMP).

On the surface, Uganda appears to have a reasonably active multiparty system. Yet beneath the surface, the numbers reveal something different: Political parties are creating room for independents.

Curiously, in the presidential contest, the defections that often follow primary battles have not produced a surge of independents.

The reason is simple: In most parties, the presidential ticket is reserved for specific individuals. The real battleground is in parliamentary and local council races, where competition for the party flag is intense. However, those who have opted to contest for president as independents may be responding to failure to be accommodated by political parties, an indicator of the need for a more inclusive political system.

The high number of independents reflects a hangover of individual merit politics, which operated from 1986 to 2006, when political parties were restricted, and candidates stood as individuals. This was the movement political system, where aspirants had to campaign on their track records, including what they had done in their communities, their professional achievements, their behaviour, and what they promised to deliver. Voters made their choices based on individual merit, not party loyalty.

That system had its critics, but it offered something many Ugandans still recall with nostalgia: Tempered competition. Candidates did not have to endure divisive party primaries and demonstrate party loyalty. They were elected on their own merit, and it was inclusive.

Maybe that is why it is believed that Parliament under the movement system was dominated by brilliant legislators, and the quality of debate was great.

By contrast, in the multiparty era, party affiliation often acts as a shield. A weak candidate can still win by virtue of their party’s strength.

NUP demonstrated this in 2021, when the excitement around its emergence propelled little-known candidates to victory in Buganda.

The voters’ loyalty was to the party, not necessarily to the individual on the ballot. To win seats, some old politicians, especially from DP, joined NUP. But also, some new entrants who were not scrutinised got elected and made no contributions during debates either in Parliament or local councils.

NUP, the leading opposition party, has opted to select candidates through an internal administrative assessment rather than open primaries. However well-intentioned, it raised accusations of bias, manipulation, and favouritism.

Consequently, contested outcomes and a swelling number of disgruntled members are opting to stand as independents. This trend is most visible in Buganda, NUP’s stronghold, where securing the party ticket is as good as securing victory, at least as per the 2021 polls.

For aspirants who fail to get endorsement, running as independents becomes the only option, even at the risk of expulsion from the party.

In other parts of the country, however, NUP does not face the same pressure. There, competition for the party flag is less fierce, and in some areas, virtually non-existent.

It means individuals easily get party tickets; there is no competition. In fact, NUP and some opposition parties have been actively persuading individuals to take up their tickets simply to ensure visibility on the ballot.

The ruling NRM, on the other hand, has institutionalised internal primaries. But these contests are routinely marred by irregularities: voter bribery, intimidation, ghost voters, and violence.

These flaws drive many defeated aspirants into the independent column.

The outcome is often bizarre: In certain constituencies, voters are presented with an “NRM vs. NRM” choice, as the official flagbearer squares off against an independent with strong party ties.

Yet NRM has managed this dilemma with political pragmatism. Instead of alienating independents, it has historically accommodated them, striking informal pacts to consolidate its numbers in Parliament and local councils.

This arrangement has allowed the party to maintain its numerical dominance. It is important to note that independents are fully within their constitutional right to contest. Uganda’s electoral laws recognise them as legitimate candidates. However, the growing tide of independents carries implications that go far beyond individual ambition.

The central question is whether Uganda’s multiparty system is functioning as intended. Each election cycle sees more independents than before, suggesting that political parties are failing to manage internal democracy, resolve disputes fairly, and inspire loyalty among their members.

In theory, multiparty politics should strengthen democratic accountability by offering voters distinct ideological choices and well-organised platforms.

Uganda’s political parties’ inability to manage internal competition is pushing more aspirants to run as independents, undermining multiparty democracy.

Parties are beginning to notice. NUP has already sounded a stern warning: Any member who defies the party and runs as an independent will be expelled.

NRM has issued similar pronouncements, although in practice, it prefers a softer approach to avoid alienating independents who could still bolster its numbers after the election.

The dilemma for Uganda’s political parties is clear. If they take a hard line against independents, they risk fragmenting further and losing critical seats. If they embrace independents, they risk weakening political parties and boosting individuals.

Political parties have to learn to manage internal democracy transparently and credibly lest independents continue to multiply during every election and undermine the growth of multiparty democracy.

Uganda’s 2026 general election is shaping up not just as a contest between NRM and NUP, or government and opposition, but also as a referendum on the strength of political parties themselves.

If the independents dominate seats in Parliament and local councils, then Uganda may as well revert to the movement system where individual merit is supreme.

X @dmukholi1

Email-dmukholi@gmail.com