America's game, Europe's war and Africa's silent sacrifice

By Simon Mulongo

It is clear; the world continues to follow Washington’s lead. Europe, stripped of its American shield, falters, thus revealing its military frailty. 

Africa, vast in resources, is absent in war council, remains a supplier, and not a power broker. It is said power is never debated, it is exercised. 

If Europe wants to fight on in Ukraine, it will do so leaderless, cut off from the force that dictated its military course for decades. 

The Trump-Zelenskyy standoff last Friday shattered Ukraine’s hopes as Trump denied aid following collapsed mineral concessions. By Tuesday, US military aid was frozen, leaving Europe scrambling to form a “Coalition of the Willing”. 

Bold declarations by European leaders could not mask their lack of firepower, exposing North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) as a paper tiger, without the US. 

For years, Europe believed that economic power translated into military dominance. That illusion is now unravelling. 

Despite a $350b defence budget, the continent struggles to meet wartime demands. Russia, with a wartime economy of just $100b, is outproducing all of Europe combined.
 
The numbers tell the story. Ukraine fires 10,000 shells a day, yet European factories produce barely half that. Russian artillery outmatches Ukraine’s, at 3:1. With American air dominance gone, Russia now owns the skies, dismantling Ukrainian infrastructure at will. 

Europe is fighting a war of desperation, not strategy. It is throwing everything it has onto the battlefield, yet it cannot outlast an adversary that has restructured its economy, its industry, and its society for long-term war. 

Wars are not won by bold rhetoric; they are won by production lines, supply chains and raw firepower. Moscow has adapted. The reckless offensives of 2022 are gone. 
This war is no longer about seizing land, it is about exhausting Europe’s will to fight. Russian forces have transformed the war into a slow, grinding campaign. 

They let Ukraine bleed itself dry, forcing Kyiv to burn through its dwindling manpower and weapons. Moscow has secured its economy, redirecting trade towards Asia while solidifying mineral and energy deals with Africa. 

Simon Mulongo

With USAID frozen, Europe is now questioning its limits. The idea of a Ukrainian victory, once declared with certainty, is now whispered with doubt. 

Putin does not need to defeat NATO militarily, he only needs to convince Europe that victory is out of reach. While the world watches Ukraine, Africa has quietly become indispensable. 

This war is not just being fought with soldiers, it is being fought with fuel, minerals and logistics. With Russian gas cut off, Nigeria, Algeria and Angola have become Europe’s energy lifelines. 

DR Congo and Zambia hold the lithium, cobalt and rare earth minerals that Western weapons manufacturers depend on. Russian mercenaries, through Wagner and other proxies, ensure Moscow retains access to Africa’s mineral wealth. 

Africa is not on the frontlines but it is very much part of the war. Europe fights, Russia endures and Africa, as always, feeds the machine — its resources taken, its economies disrupted, its future dictated by foreign conflicts. 

Uganda, like the rest of Africa, walks a tightrope as inflation surges, currency weakens and energy prices get more volatile. President Museveni — the strategist — faces a dilemma: align with Russia, risking Western wrath or embrace the West, jeopardising Moscow ties. 

While this neutrality seems wise, history shows Africa’s perpetual entanglement in global conflict dragged in by fate, not choice. 

This is no longer just a war between Russia and Ukraine — it is a global reckoning. America has not abandoned the fight — it has rewritten the rules. Europe assumed Washington would always lead, now that assumption has collapsed. 

Trump, ever the strategist, has executed the ultimate manoeuvre — stepping back, letting Europe fl ounder and ensuring that when a peace deal finally comes, it will be dictated from Washington, not Brussels. Russia, patient and unyielding, is playing the long game. 

Europe, struggling and divided, is merely trying to hold the line. And Africa, unseen but indispensable, sustains the war from the shadows.

Wars of attrition do not remain confined to their original players. The question is no longer if Africa will be drawn in — it is when and at what cost.

The writer is a governance and security consultant at EMANS Frontiers, Ltd.