Uganda’s coffee future prices defy global slump, remain resilient amid global market shifts

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Uganda’s coffee sector continues to show resilience and strong market performance despite global price slumps triggered by external factors, the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) has revealed in its latest Daily Coffee Market Analysis Report.

International coffee futures prices dipped significantly last week, weighed down by a forecasted bumper Robusta harvest in Vietnam and looming changes to US import tariffs.

However, Uganda's premium coffee varieties remain in high demand, fetching record prices on the local market.

Global coffee markets decline

On the international front, both the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) recorded substantial losses.

At LIFFE, coffee prices closed at sh14,452,360 per tonne ($4,135), down sh1,090,352 ($312), while the January position closed at sh14,291,544 ($4,089), down sh1,087,256 ($311).

The decline is largely attributed to a projected 6% increase in Vietnam’s 2025/26 Robusta coffee production — estimated to hit 29.4 million bags, the highest in four years.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of Robusta, also reported a 7.8% increase in coffee exports between January and August 2025, totaling 19.02 million bags.

Similarly, ICE closed lower across all trading positions. The December position fell by sh50 (14.35 US cents) to sh1,279 (366.50 US cents) per lb, while the March position dropped by sh52 (15 US cents) to sh1,210 (346.25 US cents).

This decline followed news that US lawmakers plan to introduce legislation to remove tariffs on coffee-product imports.

Currently, a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee has tightened ICE inventories, supporting prices until now.

Uganda’s coffee holds strong

Despite global volatility, Uganda’s coffee remains robust — both in volume and value.

Robusta – Screen 15 recorded the highest traded volume, selling 5,854 60-kilo bags, followed by Arabica – Drugar at 2,950 bags, and Robusta – Screen 12 at 2,294 bags.

Premium grades fetched top market prices: Arabica – Bugisu AA: sh27,862 per kilo, Arabica – Bugisu A: sh27,785 per kilo and Arabica – Bugisu PB: sh27,785 per kilo.

These figures highlight Uganda’s continued dominance as a producer of high-quality Arabica coffee, particularly from the Bugisu region.

Minister Tumwebaze commends sector growth

Speaking during a recent press briefing, Agriculture Minister Frank Tumwebaze lauded the sector’s upward trajectory, noting that Uganda’s coffee prices had reached the levels projected earlier in the year.

“I am pleased to confirm to you today that this prediction has come true. Coffee prices have indeed rebounded to the expected levels. This reflects our commitment, confidence in Uganda’s quality coffee by international buyers, and farmers’ resilience,” he stated.

He urged all players in the value chain to build on this momentum.

“As we embrace this positive development, I call upon all farmers and actors in the coffee value chain to continue focusing on maintaining high-quality standards at harvesting, drying, and processing; adopting good agricultural practices; strengthening farmer organisations and cooperatives to enhance bargaining power; and exploring value addition opportunities to reduce vulnerability to international price fluctuations,” he said.