Uganda faces rising climate pressure as rainfall becomes unreliable

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A new government report has raised concern over Uganda’s growing vulnerability to climate change, warning against continued heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture amid increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.

The report, the National Population and Housing Census (NPHC) 2024 Community Module, shows that 97.2% of parishes rely on rainfall for farming.

Compiled by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and released on April 8, 2026, the report warns that this dependence is becoming riskier as weather patterns shift.

According to the findings, 75.7% of parishes now experience irregular rainfall seasons, making farming less predictable and increasing the risk of crop failure.

The report also highlights the impact of these changes on communities, noting that about 63.7% have experienced famine, while 63.1% have faced drought conditions.

It notes that climate change is no longer occasional but increasingly frequent across the country. In addition, 41.8% of parishes report rising temperatures.

Agriculture under pressure

The findings show that farming communities are struggling with multiple challenges beyond climate change.

For example, it notes that in crop farming, more than 94% of parishes report problems such as crop diseases, limited land and lack of improved seeds. In livestock farming, 93.1% report animal theft, while 92.5% face pests and diseases.

The report also points to environmental loss. Wetlands exist in 66% of parishes, and forests in 43.9%, but these ecosystems are shrinking due to human activity.

Encroachment is reported in 50.5% of wetlands, 36.4% of water bodies, and 26.1% of forests and woodlands, weakening natural protection against floods and droughts.

The report says Uganda must invest more in irrigation and water management systems to reduce dependence on rainfall. It warns that expanding “water for production” infrastructure is now urgent to protect food security.

It concludes that climate and environmental pressures are among the most urgent challenges facing communities and require immediate attention.

What the study covered

The NPHC was generated from the National Census Report 2024 and assesses the availability of key services at parish level.

It looks at health and education facilities, financial services such as banks and mobile money, and social conditions, including crime and domestic issues. It also gathers data on the prevalence of various crimes, including theft and burglary, while documenting sensitive social issues like domestic violence, child neglect and harmful traditional practices.

By collecting this information at the parish level, the module provides a roadmap for policy interventions like the Parish Development Model, allowing the government to allocate resources based on the specific social and economic needs of each community.