Museveni has already won the 2021 elections, Opposition should strategise for 2026 

By Dr Nathan Karema

The election season in Uganda is nigh. Last week, the Electoral Commission carried out nominations for the 2021-2026 presidential candidates.

For the first time in almost two decades, Col (Rtd) Dr. Kizza Besigye is missing out on the ballot.

Having amassed great human capital and goodwill in the populace, especially in the countryside, from a cross-section of voters, it becomes apparent that he leaves a big vacuum for the current opposition candidates in the accumulation of public goodwill.

It remains to be seen whether the first-time contenders can amass enough countrywide superstructure and resources to tilt the vote in their favour.

Compare this with the incumbent President Yoweri Tibuhaburwa Museveni.

Nailing his 37th year, he is pushing to have his regime move to a record 42 years. There is no precedent for a Ugandan President having ruled for this long.

So clearly, you can't underestimate President Museveni's ability as an astute politician that has sustained his regime for almost 65% of Uganda's post-independence life.

Also, you can't underestimate the superstructure (political, economic and social) that he has created across the country in this period that would come in handy to ensure he wins the election at all costs.

This superstructure has a personal interest in the election as it sustains the political and financial taps flowing their way. It is only the inexperienced that can write him off as the man to beat in the 2021 election. Also important to note is the advantage of this power of incumbency for his party and personal branding. Everyone who will be going to the polling station in January 2021 knows him, has seen him or at least heard about him.

For the last five years (since the 2016 election), he has been moving to almost every corner of the country, talking to voters, solving problems of the citizens and setting up public infrastructure. He has fixed challenges in traditional institutions, faith-based institutions and individual grievances. This is how broad the power of the presidency can go.

Whoever is the incumbent, therefore, taps into this goodwill that he has created with big players in society, who are torn between either supporting him or at least not fighting him! Having this big brand is certainly a key issue in this scientific, media-based campaign.

Given the spread and ownership of radio and television in the countryside (45.2% for radio and 17.4% for television as per the 2016/17 Uganda National Household Survey), whoever has better personal branding and name recognition in the public domain stands a better chance of winning the vote, not because the voter thinks they are good for the job, but rather because they can't recognise who the other people in the race are.

In the just-concluded Youth Council and People with Disabilities elections, the NRM swept the elections with about 80% of the vote. The NRM won the youth vote with 79.11%, while the Independents got 14.87%. Some of these independents might be NRM leaning and might openly campaign for Museveni. The National Unity Platform came third with 2.36% and FDC came fourth with 1.86%.

That the NRM can sweep the youth elections countrywide puts to question two issues-the assumed popularity of opposition players amongst the youth voting bloc, as well as the spread of party structures for opposition parties as a bloc in the countryside. Both issues are key in not only getting the vote, but also in putting up a mechanism to protect the vote.

Youths are the most volatile voting bloc, so if a person or party doesn't have a presence and goodwill amongst this bloc, they lose not only potential voters, but also potential vote protection squads that would counter the NRM, if at all it harbours any ambitions of rigging the election.

So the question to the parties and individuals standing with President Museveni in next year's election would be ‘where are your voters and which structures do you have to protect your vote from the furthest corner of Abim district to the south most polling station in Kisoro?'

 The other advantage of the power of incumbency is the clarity on the election platform. Museveni is campaigning on the platform of what he has achieved in his almost four decades' rule.

From the restoration of peace in all the corners of the country, to the discipline of the military, to big infrastructure projects and a road network that has tarmac roads moving from Kampala to all directions of the country, to working with his former political and military enemies in his government. So, the incumbent isn't standing on a promise of what he will do, but rather on a show of power of what he has achieved and the promise of ‘I can sustain this, you can't trust my opponents to do so'.

The opposition is campaigning on the premise of what they hope to achieve given the opportunity to lead the country.

Put yourself in the shoes of the voter in the village and tell me whom you would vote for given these two choices.

So in January 2021, Ugandans will go to the polls to answer the question ‘of all the people on the ballot, who is the best alternative to Yoweri Museveni?'

That is the million-dollar question because, for starters, it assumes that Museveni is the constant, the comparison factor, and if an average Ugandan in the countryside doesn't see any face on the ballot that would sustain what Museveni has achieved so far, they will be bound to vote for Museveni, not because he espouses their ambitions and hope for a better Uganda, but rather because the alternatives do not portray to the average man/woman in the countryside that they would do what he has done or at least sustain it.

So the question to answer in this 2021 election is who of the opposition parties and independent candidates would brand themselves to a village voter as the new Museveni so that the voter can use their Museveni fatigue to vote for that suitable alternative? My answer is nobody. Ugandans have been known to vote for stability, not disruption.

They are more likely to vote for a candidate that guarantees what they have achieved than for a candidate who embodies disruption-even positive disruption. It is, therefore, clear that the next vote will be a one man's show, with the incumbent garnering an even better performance than the previous. My word to the opposition does your prep very well and see you in 2026.

The writer is a Senior Citizen and Opinion Leader.
nathankarema@yahoo.com