How Besigye absence is affecting FDC in race for 2021 polls

ELECTION WATCH |

The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has previously organised around the persona of Dr Kizza Besigye to become the biggest political threat to the ruling National Resistance Movement. Political observers say the absence of Besigye from the race could leave the party's fortunes in balance, writes Umaru Kashaka

By press time, the Electoral Commission unofficial tally was indicating that the main opposition party, the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), had fielded fewer candidates for the 2021 general elections than in 2016.

The tally shows a lot of young people in the Opposition standing under the banner of the National Unity Platform (NUP), led by Kyadondo East MP Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine for most electoral seats in the country.

Nandala Mafabi, the FDC secretary-general, told Sunday Vision that there are certain places where they did not fi eld candidates. 

"We have not fielded parliamentary candidates in about 50 or 60 constituencies, and then in other areas, such as Kapchorwa, we got a problem because our secretaries were not available to stamp nomination forms and as a result, people were nominated as independents," Mafabi said.

He added that by the time they learnt about this problem, it was too late for them to rectify it.

Currently, there are 353 constituencies in 146 districts.

Analysts' take

Some FDC officials and analysts say fielding fewer candidates is not surprising because the party has been struggling with its representation in the district councils and Parliament right from around 2016.

"This is merely a continuation of the same trend; nothing is really different.  It is also possible that when Maj. Gen Mugisha Muntu quit FDC, he left with a section of members of the party.  So, whereas these members would have previously run under the FDC ticket, they will now stand as Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) members, which Muntu heads," Crispin Kaheru, an electoral analyst, says.

Kaheru observes that this automatically affects the number of candidates standing on the FDC ticket.  "But at the same time, we have the NUP/People Power factor. With this new kid on the block, many people have actually migrated from different parties to join NUP.  This also partly explains why the number of FDC candidates is low," he explains.

In the run-up to the party presidential nominations, FDC leaders, led by their president Patrick Amuriat and chairperson Wasswa Birigwa, tried in vain to convince Besigye to run again.

After trying four times without success to mount a significant electoral challenge to the National Resistance Movement (NRM) fl ag- bearer, President Yoweri Museveni, Besigye threw in the towel on his bid. 

Instead, he said he would focus on what he termed as ‘Plan B' in order to cause regime change.

"In this plan, we assent that the means to cause that change, to reclaim our influence, is to fight. Plan B is a plan for fighting," Besigye, who was Museveni's personal doctor when they were guerrilla fighters in 1981-1986, said recently.

But he hastened to add that there are different ways of fighting, and that it does not necessarily mean taking up arms against the Government.

However, Prof Gerald Karyeija, the associate professor of public administration and management at the Uganda Management Institute, says sooner than later, they are likely to see Besigye return to the political scene.

"The current FDC leadership is still being overshadowed by Besigye in terms of influence. This gives NUP and ANT more possibilities of growth in positioning and influence, unless they also succumb to internal squabbles of the NRM political machinations," he explains.

Future of FDC

Karyeija contends that the next five years will be for the FDC to reflect on what needs to be done to improve on their performance.

"Unless they have deliberate recruitment strategies, they may end up being more visible at local government level in particular territories and also symbolically showing that we are a multiparty democracy," he explains.

Karyeija says FDC and NUP will struggle to be the leading parties in the next Parliament.

"A number of Democratic Party strategists and MPs joined NUP and they shall try to show how strong they are. They are also seeking to have leadership in Parliament," he explains.

Kaheru says FDC's future depends on how they re-invent themselves as an internally sound and politically vibrant political party.

"How much fi t-for-purpose they are will determine whether or not they will stand a chance of taking state power in future," he says.

But Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political scientist, says we should not be asking about the future of FDC. "We should be asking about the future of political parties in Uganda. For as long as the NRM is in power, political parties shall keep weakening. The behaviour of NRM reflects Museveni's attitudes towards multi-party," he says.

How parties are struggling

Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi, a political scientist, says parties in Uganda, except the National Resistance Movement (NRM), are struggling to raise money, which explains why they are unable to field candidates everywhere. 

"The NRM leaves little space for political parties to raise money. If you look at money given to political parties by the Government, the NRM takes a lion's share because of its numerical strength in Parliament," he says.

The finance ministry recently released sh15b for the five political parties represented in Parliament and NRM took sh12b, FDC received sh1.5b, DP got sh600m, Uganda People's Congress sh300m, while JEEMA, with one legislator, received sh41m.

A row over the allocation of the money has since erupted, with JEEMA president and chairperson of the Inter-Party Organisation for Dialogue, Asuman Basalirwa, arguing that the parties should share the money equally.

 "One reason must be the lack of resources to sponsor candidates and it is also possible that not enough people came up to stand under the FDC flag," he explains.

Golooba argues that it is also possible that the National Unity Platform (NUP) has a lot of youth, some of them professionals, who are willing to use their own resources to contest under the party.

Bobi Wine recently took to his social media platforms to launch a fundraising drive to support some NUP candidates with nomination fees.