Will the opposition undo NRM's dominance in Parliament in 2021?

Oct 14, 2020

Opposition parties always have multiple candidates in one constituency against an NRM one which disadvantages them

According to the revised roadmap issued by the Independent Electoral Commission, nominations for parliamentary candidates are supposed to take place on Thursday and Friday.

Whereas the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) has lined up candidates to contest for all the 517 (excluding the 10 army MPs) parliamentary seats for the next (11th) Parliament, no single opposition party will be able to field candidates in all the constituencies.

Talking to New Vision on the NRM plans for the next Parliament, the NRM spokesperson, Emmanuel Dombo, said: "NRM is the only party in Uganda that offers candidates for every elective position in the country."

On how NRM is likely to perform in the 2021 parliamentary race, Dombo said: "We hope to win between 70% and 80% of the total seats in Parliament. We do not expect to go below 70%. Actually, we expect to win more seats than we have currently because while the NRM has been winning more ground, the Opposition has been weakening."

Teso now NRM stronghold

Dombo cited the example of Teso which he said was previously dominated by FDC but has in the recent past become an NRM stronghold after FDC lost most of the constituencies it used to hold there.

Citing the poor performance of the Opposition in the last three general elections, Dombo scoffed at any imagination that the Opposition can win the majority of the seats in the 2021 general elections.

The FDC deputy secretary-general, Harold Kaija, informed New Vision that the party has prepared and paid nomination fees for 260 parliamentary candidates.

Kaija, however, clarified that the number of 260 excludes the incumbent MPs who they have asked to pay nomination fees for themselves.

This means that in total FDC is likely to have about 280 parliamentary candidates. This implies that FDC, the current leader of the Opposition in Parliament, will not be able to field candidates for 237 parliamentary seats.

It is, however, important to note that a big number of the current 36 FDC MPs abandoned the party and decided to contest as independents while others joined other political parties.

"Our target is to get not less than 100 seats. We have done due diligence to ensure we field candidates of high quality. We have also made inroads in places such as Ankole, Teso, Busoga, Bukedi, and Karamoja," Kaija said.

FDC deputy secretary-general, Harold Kaija.

Democratic Party (DP) secretary-general Gerald Siranda told New Vision that they have prepared a total of 144 candidates who will be nominated to contest for parliamentary seats. This means DP will not be able to field candidates for 373 parliamentary seats.

Siranda said: "We have given you what DP can contribute, where we have strength. UPC can also win a majority in Lango. FDC can also bring more where they are strong. Alliance for National Transformation (ANT) will bring more where they have strength. And National Unity Platform (NUP) will also win in several constituencies."

On whether he sees a possibility of opposition parties winning more seats than NRM, Siranda said: "If we had an arrangement where each opposition party fields where it is stronger, it would be possible. If we had done that in the previous polls, the age limit removal by President Museveni would not have succeeded because we needed just an extra 20 MPs to stop it."

The acting national co-ordinator for ANT, Alice Alaso, said they have 200 parliamentary aspirants who have expressed interest in contesting on their party ticket.

"The only challenge we have is we do not have money to pay their nomination fees. We would need sh600m to pay the feed for 200 aspirants. We had thought that since we now have four MPs who joined our party, we would be able to benefit from the taxpayers' money given to parties with MPs, but the EC told us it does not apply to us. JEEMA has only one MP and gets sh30m every quarter," Alaso stated.

On how ANT is likely to perform in the forthcoming parliamentary elections, Alaso said: "We are fielding quality candidates. We hope to win as many. We are fronting candidates whose values are not questionable. We are optimistic that their messages will resonate with a big number of voters."

The chairperson of NUP's electoral commission, Mercy Walukuba, told New Vision that their parliamentary aspirants are slightly over 380. This implies that NUP will be fielding more parliamentary candidates than any other opposition party.

It is important to note that since most of the Government's decisions have to be approved by Parliament, the side that gets more legislators can always have its wishes approved by Parliament.

In the last three general polls that have been held in Uganda since the country transited into a multiparty political dispensation, the NRM has been winning most of the seats with its percentage share oscillating between 65% and 70%.

An assessment of the composition of Parliament since 2006 indicates that the number of opposition MPs has been declining in percentage terms.

For example, whereas the number of legislators has drastically risen from 319 in 2006 to 458 currently, the number of MPs belonging to the leading opposition party of FDC has been fluctuating between 41 and 36.

Political researcher Dr Frederick Golooba-Mutebi said: "I would be greatly surprised if the NRM dominance in Parliament changes in 2021. It is highly unlikely because of many reasons.

"NRM MPs have been increasing over the years partly because of the political gerrymandering done by the Government to create more constituencies in the NRM strongholds. Secondly, the NRM government deliberately does many things to keep the Opposition weak, including not allowing them to implement their political activities."

Mutebi also believes that if the various opposition parties had succeeded in working as one political bloc, they would have been able to significantly increase their numbers in Parliament.

"For now, among opposition parties, it is only NUP that is giving some hope. It seems they have edged NRM out of the youth segment of the population. NUP is sponsoring more parliamentary candidates than any other opposition political party. But NRM is still better placed to manipulate its way back into dominating Parliament."

The executive director of Research World International, Patrick Wakida, said: "In this country, it is difficult to be in the Opposition because the State is bent on crushing the Opposition.

Opposition politicians are fought by state agencies such as the army, the Police, DISOs, and RDCs. The environment is, therefore, too hostile for the Opposition to generate the capacity to win more seats in Parliament than the ruling NRM party."

More independents MPs

Wakida, who often carries out research on Uganda's political processes and trends, predicts that there will be more independent MPs than opposition MPs in the next Parliament.

"Independents will increase significantly in excess of 100 MPs. This is because NRM has had bogus primaries which have prompted many who lost to run as independents and also because the Opposition has not only been disorganised but also lacks the required resources," Wakida explained.

One other factor that various analysts keep pointing out is that opposition parties always have multiple candidates in one constituency against an NRM one which disadvantages them as their votes are divided.

It is also important to note that since the country returned to the multiparty political system in 2006, the NRM controls parliamentary seats for special interest groups such as workers' MPs, those representing people with disability, and youth MPs. Even when it comes to women MPs, the Opposition has always fielded fewer candidates.

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