Will NRM team win back Kampala?

Without a single Member of Parliament in the five divisions that make up Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA), the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) goes to the 2021 general election as the underdog in Kampala district and its metropolitan areas.

This bitter fact has sunk in well with the party leaders, but they are not leaving their political fortunes in the capital to fate. They are working round the clock to change the trajectory.

Last week, unveiling a team of coordinators, President Yoweri Museveni tasked the group under his personal assistant, Molly Babalanda, with recruiting a maximum of five campaign agents in each village across the country, but with special emphasis on Kampala and Wakiso.

This followed the decision of top party organs to clear Museveni as NRM's sole presidential candidate after the party nomination process. Alongside Museveni, NRM will also be rallying support for 10 other candidates that are carrying its flag to Parliament.

In its primary elections on Friday (September 4), NRM picked Achiles Lubega in Makindye West, Elijah Owobusingye in Makindye East, John Fisher Kasenge in Kawempe North and Solomon Mayanja in Kawempe South to carry its flag.

The others are Frederick Ruhindi in Nakawa East, Cedric Babu Ndilima in Kampala Central, Margaret Nantongo Zziwa in Nakawa West and Faridah Nambi for Kampala District Woman MP. Beti Olive Kamya is for Rubaga North while Charles Male is in Rubaga South.

Although Museveni won the 2016 election with 60.62% of the total vote against Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) candidate Dr Kizza Besigye's 35.61%, he trailed his four-time rival in Kampala and Wakiso Museveni got 30.9% of the votes cast in Kampala and 36.76% in Wakiso, compared to Besigye's 65.9% and 59.97%, respectively.

The NRM also lost all parliamentary seats to FDC's Mubarak Munyagwa in Kawempe South, Ibrahim Kasozi in Makindye East, Nabilah Naggayi Sempala for Kampala District Woman MP and Nakawa Division to Michael Kabaziguruka.

Democratic Party's (DP) Allan Ssewanyana took Makindye West, while independents Muhammad Nsereko, Moses Kasibante, Latiff Ssebagala and Kato Lubwama dominated Kampala Central, Rubaga North, Kawempe North and Rubaga South, respectively.

Yet in 2011, the margin of votes Besigye got in Kampala was minimal, at 46.86%, against Museveni's 46.08%.

The NRM also had MPs Nsereko, Ruhindi in Nakawa and John Ssimbwa in Makindye East. Political analysts argue that NRM's consistent struggle in Kampala is not peculiar to Uganda alone, because opposition parties in Africa generally find higher levels of support in urban areas, which enjoy a more attractive information environment.

However, communications assistant at the Government Citizen Interaction Centre (GCIC) Ahmed Kateregga draws parallels between the 2016 and 2011 elections to point at the administration of KCCA as pivotal to NRM's loss in the previous election.

"In 2011, Museveni shared the spoils with Besigye, but 2016 was unique due to the lack of proper public relations in KCCA. Enforcement officers were extremely high-handed and brutal, they did not only cause emotional pain, but also led to loss of jobs as they drove the vulnerable off the streets, but this change," Kateregga said.

He added: "The streets have changed in terms of infrastructure designs, to accommodate the vendors and the vulnerable.

Namirembe Road can now be used as favourably by pedestrians and street vendors." Following the enactment of the KCCA Act in 2010, the KCCA budget was more than doubled, from about sh40b annually, to sh500b by 2015, to cause transformation.

Museveni, after losing Kampala, blamed the KCCA executive director, Jennifer Musisi, for being high handed in dealing with the people in the city. Musisi has since resigned.

After swearing-in as President, Museveni swang into action and launched a charm offensive to win over strategic opponents and the young population.

As part of the grand scheme to revive NRM's glory days in Kampala, Museveni was quick to woo and appoint opposition politician at the time, former Rubaga North MP Beti Kamya and DP's Kampala District Woman candidate Florence Nakiwala Kiyingi to ministerial positions.

Kamya had lost the 2016 race for Rubaga to Kasibante, but Museveni appointed her Minister for Kampala and she, in turn, pledged to galvanise 90% support for him.

Nakiwala, a former minister for youth in Buganda Kingdom, had also lost to Nabilah, but she was to play a crucial role under a similar docket in the central Government as state minister for youth and children.

The duo has now beaten party members in the just concluded primaries, to carry flags in Rubaga North and Bukomansimbi district. Realising that the youth constituency is going to be a major battleground in 2021, Museveni was quick to demonstrate how he intends to deal with the unemployment crisis.

Besides government poverty alleviation programmes, such as the Youth Livelihood Programme, Skilling Uganda and Emyoga Funds, Museveni, in 2017, went on the trail, donating start-up cash and machinery to youth groups of welders and carpenters in Kampala and Wakiso. He directly supervised the project run by State House Comptroller Lucy Nakyobe, but he was not yet done.

Museveni also started the Presidential Initiative on Skilling the Girl-Child Project, where thousands of young people graduate annually with skills in cosmetology, tailoring and crafts making.

This, the presidential assistant on media management, Farouq Kirunda, says is going to be central in repositioning NRM in Kampala. "Museveni has support, but we have not been capitalising on it, that is why in 2021, we have a special team of campaigners, who are not politically active, to do for him the door-to-door campaign strategy.

This, coupled with the young people that he has directly lifted out of poverty, I am confident victory will be ours," Kirunda said. Museveni last won Kampala in 1996, defeating DP's Paul Kawanga Ssemogerere with 160,925 votes against 105,882, but he has maintained a firm grip on Buganda, in general.

However, in 1998, DP's candidate Nasser Ntege Ssebaggala, deriving support from the urban poor, was able to beat NRM's Christopher Yiga in the mayoral race. Yiga was the incumbent.

His stay was short-lived, after being jailed in the US, but in the ensuing byelections in 1999, Ssebaggala's campaign manager, the late John Ssebaana Kizito, beat NRM's Wasswa Ziritwawula.

The mayoral position oscillated between Ssebaana and Ssebaggala, until 2011, when another DP member, Erias Lukwago, took over as Lord Mayor, in a hot contest with now Busiro South MP Peter Sematimba. KCCA councillor in Kyambogo, Bruhan Byaruhanga said although Museveni has an independent campaign team, winning 2021 will depend a lot on the candidates as well.

"In volatile areas, like Kampala, people give voters a choice, vote for me and any president you like, but that is wrong, so the candidates will be instrumental. "They also have to reach out to their defeated opponents because they also have followers they influence, so unity will be key," Byaruhanga said.