What Besigye's opting out as FDC presidential flag-bearer means

Dr Kizza Besigye has officially declared to the nation that he will not be contesting for president in the forthcoming 2021 presidential election. Until yesterday, most Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) members were pressurising Besigye to contest for the fifth time.

This is evidenced by Besigye's posters that had been pinned at the party headquarters by his diehards who attempted to compel him to pick forms as a sign he would be contesting.

During an FDC National Council meeting in 2019, Dr Kizza Besigye told FDC leaders that they had forced him to contest for president in 2016 against his wish.

Dr Besigye has been in the last two years speaking strongly against participating in elections, arguing that President Yoweri Museveni cannot be removed through elections, which he organises.

The party has postponed nominations for the presidential flag-bearer, citing various reasons. Some people suspect the postponement was occasioned by the need to have more engagement with Dr Besigye to persuade him to contest again.

Kilak South MP Gilbert Olanya said: "It is not yet clear who will be the FDC presidential flag-bearer. But the idea that FDC must have a presidential candidate must get out of our minds. Political dynamics keep changing. It does not always have to be FDC to give the Opposition a presidential flag-bearer."

Makerere University political science lecturer Prof. Sabiti Makara said: "Besigye has pulled out because he does not see this as an election. He does not see any possibility of getting a good percentage in a scientific election where he will not be allowed to have rallies."

On what Besigye's decision means for the Opposition, Makara said: "It will weaken the Opposition. It will demoralise many opposition members who have been deriving motivation from Besigye being in the presidential race."

Political researcher Dr Frederick Mutebi Golooba argues that Besigye's departure is good for the Opposition.

"After contesting for president four times unsuccessfully, many people would have wondered what his motivation is if he had contested for a fifth time. It is good he has given way for others to be tested too," Golooba argued.

Many believe that with Besigye out of the race, it will be very easy for the Opposition to agree on a joint presidential candidate.

Mukono Municipality MP Betty Nambooze, who recently joined Kyagulanyi's National Unity Platform, has been the spokesperson of Besigye's pressure group of People's Government. She said: "We don't want to confuse Ugandans by having to choose between two strong candidates — Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi."

OTHER PERSPECTIVES

Many believe that Besigye's departure will give more clout to Robert Kyagulanyi who has been almost at the same level with him in enjoying support within opposition circles.

In an opinion poll conducted by New Vision which was released one week ago, Museveni was leading with 50.06%, followed by Robert Kyagulanyi with 21.16%, and Dr Kizza Besigye in the third position with 6.28%.

FDC deputy spokesperson John Kikonyogo has embarked on efforts of persuading his party members to support Robert Kyagulanyi.

"FDC will have done the Opposition a favour to back Robert Kyagulanyi who is now ranked the best in all opinion polls. That is the best option we have," Kikonyogo argued.

Mukono Christian University lecturer Dr Samuel Kazibwe said: "Besigye had already signalled that he is not coming. I don't think that his departure fundamentally changes the 2021 landscape. Elections here are like a referendum with only two sides. They are always between two leading presidential contenders."

Without a formidable presidential candidate, there is a high likelihood that FDC's performance in the 2021 general elections will be worse than the previous general elections of 2016.