DP REBELS: STRANDED OR SCHEMING?

POLITICS|ELECTIONS|ANALYSIS

Since People Power pressure group supremo, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, unveiled his party - the National Unity Platform (NUP) a fortnight ago, the vocal MPs from DP, who are opposed to the Norbert Mao's leadership, have been missing in action. Many hoped they were at the centre of People Power, but they were nowhere at the unveiling of NUP.

TO JOIN NUP OR RETURN TO DP?

According to analysts, the rebels have two feasible options - either to join NUP or return to DP on bended knee, a choice that seems difficult for them - at least for now.

Crafting a political decision out of the delicate situation that DP rebels are in, political analysts say, has caused unending headaches for the rebels - Butambala County MP Mohammed Muwanga Kivumbi, Busiro East MP Medard Sseggona Lubega, Mukono Municipality MP Betty Nambooze, Masaka Municipality MP Mathias Mpuuga, former deputy Lord Mayor Suleiman Kidandala, Emmanuel Ssempala Kigozi and Matia Lwanga Bwanika.They are weighing their political cards ahead of the 2021 elections.

"They have political beef with Mao. This partly explains why they were expected to join Bobi Wine's party, NUP. However, they are now sitting on the fence, partly because they were left out of the NUP executive. They also do not entirely trust some people on the NUP executive, especially the executive secretary, Davis Lewis Rubagonya," a senior opposition politician told New Vision yesterday. He added that their return to DP is now the most feasible option, but might not come easily.

"The other option would be for them to join the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), just like their leader, the Lord Mayor, Erias Lukwago, did recently. However, some individuals, such as Muwanga and Mpuuga, are not on good political terms with the FDC kingpin, Dr Kizza Besigye," the source added.

For the DP rebels, joining FDC would be the last resort. A big number of them were close associates of Winnie Kiiza when she was Leader of Opposition in Parliament and were involved in manoeuvres against the leadership of Patrick Oboi Amuriat. Kiiza has since quit FDC.

DP TALKS WITH REBELS

To kick-start their return to DP, New Vision has established that clandestine talks between Mao and the DP rebels, led by Sseggona, Muwanga Kivumbi and Mpuuga, started this week on Monday.

By engaging Mao, an insider, who is privy to these ‘return to DP fold' talks, said yesterday that the DP rebels are trying to insulate themselves against the unexpected political backlash that Kyagulanyi has unleashed with his recent declaration that: "You are either with us or against us." Kyagulanyi and the NUP spokesperson, Joel Senyonyi, have said no one can belong to two different parties at the same time.

Before People Power pressure group metamorphosed into NUP, the DP rebels had anticipated they would use the DP structures, coupled with the People Power slogan, to wrestle their way back to Parliament.

Giving a possible hint on what is going on within DP, Sseggona this week urged Mao not to "abandon" or "neglect" DP members ahead of the 2021 general elections.

However, on Tuesday, Mao, said he expects many politicians, including the rebels, to do what he described as "wheel-alignment" and return to their original political bases.

Asked what their next move is, some of the rebels said although the situation is tough, they will manoeuvre out of it.

THE CASE FOR THE REBELS

DP publicity secretary Kenneth Paul Kakande, also a DP rebel, cites lack of internal democracy as the sticking point that has complicated their political journey with Mao.

"The DP president has a signed agreement to cooperate with the People Power leadership, but he has negated it and gone ahead to declare himself presidential candidate even without endorsement from the delegates conference. Once you raise the issue, he pushes you out. We are negotiating with Kyagulanyi on the way forward, especially on how to support him without losing our identity," Kakande said.

HAVE IDEOLOGIES CHANGED?

This political catch22 is not only limited to the Sseggona group, but even with the JEEMA party. Some key leaders who were solidly linked to Bobi Wine's People Power are finding it hard to adjust to the NUP idea. One of the JEEMA top leaders posted a statement on social media blasting Kyagulanyi for trying to "swallow" their party.

Henry Kasacca, a political pundit and executive director of the Dialogue and Democratic Training Centre, argues that returning to DP is the best choice for DP rebels, just like their counterparts in the National Resistance Movement (NRM), who recently apologised to President Museveni, the party chairperson, and returned to the fold.

During the NUP launch, Kyagulanyi maintained that the party is the political arm of the People Power pressure group, vaguely implying that some of his close allies like Asuman Basalirwa, the JEEMA president, can concurrently maintain their party identity and also enjoy the People Power support.

It is hard to say whether the DP rebels, without returning to the main DP fold, will enjoy similar treatment. Section 8 of the Political Party and organisations Act enjoins political parties and their flag-bearers to use only recognised political party symbols.

Although the Muwanga Kivumbi group agrees that by institutionalising People Power into a party as a vehicle ahead of the 2021 general elections, Kyagulanyi played his cards well, it seems the development completely threw the DP rebels off-balance. After securing the 2016 re-election in Butambala, Muwanga blamed Museveni's victory on the collapse of The Democratic Alliance (TDA) and led a crusade that drummed up support for a solid arrangement to tackle 2021.

Muwanga, who previously supported Besigye, abandoned him during the TDA and, like other DP leaders, supported Amama Mbabazi. Muwanga was also angered by Besigye's move to campaign for an FDC parliamentary candidate in Butambala.

Muwanga further argues that when they started out opposing Museveni in 1996 in the Uganda Young Democrats, a DP youth wing, they hoped that one among them would rise to the occasion. Unfortunately, he added, over the years, the firebrands have been consumed by the various political waves.

Even ousting Mao from the DP presidency for them to take charge of the party has failed. So, like the old adage goes, if you can't beat Mao, join him.

INSIDE NUP-DP POLITICS

Insiders argue that the DP rebels had initially agreed to cross to NUP, but changed course.

For majority of the rebels, their reelection largely depends on the DP structures they have established over the years. It is uncertain that if they switch to NUP they would go with the DP structures in their respective constituencies.

So, in order to consolidate their political future and DP identity, Kasacca argues, getting back into the Mao base, however much they loathe him, could be the natural choice for them.

"All these people want to remain politically active and I am sure through dialogue, DP can accommodate their interests and also use this move to reorgansie as a political force," he said.

For some rebels, such as Kidandala, who expressed interest to contest for the Kawempe North seat, NUP has already endorsed Latif Sebaggala, who recently crossed to NUP. For Sebaggala, it was easy to cross because he contested as an independent in the 2016 general elections after cutting ties with DP.

KYAGULANYI SPEAKS OUT ON HIS ASSOCIATES LINKED TO NRM

There has been fears among some DP rebels and other opposition forces that Kyagulanyi's close associates in NUP have links with NRM or even security establishment.

But Kyagulanyi argues that his team should be judged by their current actions, and not their past.

"Our deputy executive secretary, comrade Aisha Kabanda, is a former RCC. When I first interacted with her, some people cautioned me not to trust her or bringing her close, but see what incredible work she is doing for the forces of change.

"Likewise, when I met our executive secretary, comrade Rubongoya in 2016, he was an NRM supporter, who disagreed with many things there, but like many other people, he remained part of them. At some point, he made the conclusion to step out of NRM and together with other friends, we started the People Power Movement," Kyagulanyi added.