What next for Winnie Kiiza?

From the political vantage point of the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM), the exit of former Leader of Opposition and Kasese Woman MP, Winnie Kiiza, indicates that she has sensed, like any seasoned political actor would, that the ground is slippery.

Yet going by insiders within the Opposition, her exit is part of the large grand scheme of a planned replacement of Maj. Gen Mugisha Muntu as the national coordinator of the Alliance for National Transformation (ANT).

As the rebellion against the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party by pro-Muntu Opposition MPs intensifies, analysts say, the political calculations have also intensified ahead of the forthcoming 2021 general elections.

"Winnie Kiiza supports Muntu. Her mate Yokasi Bihande is chairman ANT (Kasese). Kasese has been supporting FDC. MPs there are dragging feet because the ground is slippery. Something is cooking," Ofwono Opondo, the Government spokesperson, said.

So, what is cooking in Kasese?

As the fall out between pro-Muntu MPs and FDC takes centre-stage with defections starting to manifest, analysts say, for Kasese, the political terrain has shifted a great deal since Kiiza led the FDC capture of the district during the 2016 general elections.

For instance, in April last year, President Yoweri Museveni, addressed a bi-partisan rally in Bukonzo West, where the area MP, Godfrey Katusabe, an FDC MP, attended and shared light moments with the NRM party national chairperson.

"I am glad we had a successful bi-partisan gathering," he said during the rally at Karambi Primary School in Bwera Town Council.

This rally came against the backdrop of an Operation Wealth Creation (OWC) drive around Kasese and the Rwenzori sub-region that was led by the coordinator of OWC, Gen. Caleb Akandwanaho aka Salim Saleh.

"FDC has been popular in Kasese ever since that protest vote was cast against NRM in 2016. But, the NRM never sat back after the set back. They have been on ground, dolling out all sorts of house-hold income generating programmes, as a mechanism of buying back the lost love, and trying to find out why they lost miserably in Kasese," a seasoned political leader in Kasese, who closely follows events in the district, said.

"For many FDC leaders in the district, the NRM approach, especially the willingness to carefully understand why they lost the 2016 elections to FDC in the area, and the cracks within FDC, have complicated the political ground," he added.

According to the NRM Kasese district councilor, Lucas Buhaka, the ex-Opposition Leader, popularity within the district had soared in many scores, especially going by her poignant role she played when the Obusinga Bwa Rwenzururu (OBR) palace was raided in November 2016.

Given the NRM mounted presence and come back in Kasese, some elders such as Rev Canon Josephat Kiiza argue that Kiiza could land a big job in Museveni's Government.

Yet some polticial analysts such as Henry Kasacca from the Dialogue Centre of Uganda, the anticipated cross-over to ANT party could have informed Kiiza's decision to quite elective politics.

"FDC, in my view, despite the inroads by NRM, is still strong on ground in terms of party structures. Therefore, going against FDC, could be a political disaster for her if she sought re-election. So, to save herself from embarrassment, she opted for a soft-landing," he said, adding that ANT has not consolidated presence and mounted formidable structures in Kasese.

The other aspect, Kasacca added, is that Kiiza has projected herself as a promoter of People Power movement, a pressure group headed by Kyadondo East MP, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine, which Kasese people do not understand.

However, in her statement declaring her exit from elective politics, Kiiza said: "In 2006, I made mention of the fact that my predecessor had overstayed in power, and I promised never to take the same path. In 2016, I informed a section of my campaign team that this would be our last term as District Woman MP."

She added: "In 2017, I met a few Kasese elders and confided in them about the same intentions. Since then, I have been meeting up with mentors and friends about the same matter. We did not arrive to this decision today, it has been a process. It's simply a time for a fresh look!"

Yet for some insiders within the Opposition, in her professed ‘new look', Kiiza is perhaps pointing at Muntu's wider game plan.

"The FDC has to deal with grassroots rebellion. There is also the fall-out as FDC declines to receive nomination forms for pro-Muntu contenders, who are yet to cross to ANTI party. So, what do you do if you are Winnie? Like a sword of Damocles that is held by strand of hair, she had to announce before the sword cuts her political career within elective politics," an FDC Kasese MP told New Vision yesterday.

"However, her husband [Yokasi) Bihande being a close friend of Muntu, it is very difficult for her to cross to any other party other than Muntu's. Actually, it is her husband who introduced her to politics, and Bihande being a classmate of Muntu at Makerere University, it is very difficult for her not to join Muntu's party," the FDC MP added.

However, analysts argue that given her presumed popularity, it would have been prudent for Kiiza to cross to ANT and retain the Kasese Woman MP seat for ANT, which badly needs to show presence in the next Parliamentary representation.

According to some ANT insiders, Kiiza's exit from elective politics has been planned over time by Muntu.

"As Muntu joins the race for president in the 2021 general elections, the party will need a national chairperson, who will be elected during the planned delegates' conference next month. This means that Winnie will be the natural choice," a source close to the political machinations with ANT said.

According to Article 7 (7) (4) of the constitution of the ANT party, the national chairperson is banned from seeking any elective position at the national level because the job is akin to a chief executive of the party.

So, could this be Kiiza's game plan?

"Her role in the anti-age limit protests during her tenure as Leader of Opposition pointed to good organizational skills. You can't be weak and deliver the entire Kasese district to Opposition in a hotly contested election?  So, her organizational skills are not questionable, and she would be the perfect choice to lead Muntu's party," a member of ANT said.

Within Kasese, her supporters also share the same sentiments.

 "Whoever succeeds her, be it from FDC or the ruling NRM, should be knowledgeable in legislation, patriotic to the district and the country and able to command a following,"  Buhaka  said, adding that Kiiza was able to command political support across the poltical divide because she never antagonised other ethnic groups, who include the Basongora, Banyabindi and Banyagwaki. 

According to the acting OBR prime Minister, Gadi Mbayahi Bakwanamaha, Kiiza's decision "was the right to do." 

"But the people of Kasese have lost and should pray to the Lord to give them a suit bake replacement from whichever political party. As a cultural institution we are proud that our subject has left power gracefully. Other leaders in Kasese should emulate her," Mbayahi said.

Yet some people in Kasese argue that her exit was good riddance.

"As an individual, she has achieved for herself and her family but not the community," Anna Muhindo, a retired teacher in Kasese said.

Asked about her next move, Kiiza said yesterday that she had not quit politics, but rather taking a sabbatical leave.

"I also want to participate in electing another leader who will succeed me," Kiiza, 47, said, adding that her 15-year parliamentary career, has prepared her for bigger things ahead.

Kiiza, who said she was grooming another woman to take over from her, however declined to divulge her potential successor.

"In the event that my successor comes from another political party other than the FDC, I am ready to work with her. Since, the start of my current term, have been nursing the idea to leave. It is not something that came to me by accident," she said.

So far, twelve aspirants have declared intentions to replace Kiiza.

They FDC include FDC stalwart and  Kasese district Social Service Secretary, Ruth Kabugho, NRM's Doreen Lhusenge, Esther Kimbwembwe, who represents Kinyamaseka Town Council and Sarah Ithungu Baleke, daughter-in-law to Uganda's ambassador to the DR Congo, James Mbahimba, among others.