COVID-19: How to survive the pandemic and thrive

Apr 14, 2020

While it is possible that we might settle back into our usual routines after the pandemic, the post-pandemic era could bring a few lasting changes with it.

COVID-19

By Gabriel Olila

First, if you are reading this article via a hard copy newspaper, shame on you! While it is unlikely that digital media will completely replace print in our lifetimes, I think these times require that we minimize the risk of infection associated with using hard copies of anything, especially if our lives are to return to normal by July 2020.  

Africa started 2020 with a positive economic outlook, as outlined in the Africa Growth Initiative's annual Foresight Africa report. The same air of positivity pervaded many other publications from the AfDB and the World Bank, among others. However, the COVID-19 pandemic is already undermining positive projections for trade, tourism, remittances, financial markets, and consumer and business sentiment.

As highlighted in the April 2020 Bank of Uganda Monetary Policy Statement, consumer-facing sectors have suffered due to social distancing and uncertainty, manufacturing has declined as the inflow of raw materials slows, trade has also seen a decline in external demand plus supply chain disruptions, while service sectors such as finance, insurance, and ICT are affected by the general stall in business activity and investment. The pandemic is expected to impact the Ugandan economy negatively.

Aside from its seasonality, the tourism sector (7.7 percent of GDP) will be one of the obvious sectors hardest hit. An important source of foreign exchange in Uganda, it employs close to 700,000 people. Foreign currency inflows and remittances from the diaspora will drop following the global shock from the pandemic, further straining the economy. A drop in FDI flows, as a result of the coronavirus, is also anticipated accordingly. Government's lost revenues are expected to be impacted with about 42% of all the tax collected in Uganda coming from international trade.

As one of the top ten African net exporters of basic food, medical and pharmaceutical products, Uganda is unlikely to face high inflation as a result of the pandemic. But considering Uganda's unique set of circumstances; limited fiscal capacity, a highly informal economy with many MSMEs, a poor, young and rapidly urbanising population, plus a constrained health system, we will have to be especially focused and creative in our response to the crisis.

According to an April 2020 McKinsey Report, governments should: establish state-of-the-art national nerve centres to coordinate crisis tracking and response efforts; prepare for a potentially rapid surge of cases by ensuring that there are adequate testing facilities, hospital beds, ventilators, and health professionals.

Food supply chains have been affected. Price stability and the supply of priority products should be ensured. For this, access to essential services such as telecoms and utilities must be maintained. It is likely that casual, temporary and contract jobs might be lost so government will need to protect jobs it can protect and support affected communities, particularly the most vulnerable populations, through social safety-net mechanisms—including hand-outs of food, cash transfers, etc.

For a look at some possibilities in this regard, I refer you to an April 2020 policy brief by the Centre for Development Alternatives (google it!). Depending on the gravity of the situation, government might consider offering a stimulus package(s) to maintain financial stability and help businesses survive the crisis—particularly those in strategic industries; identify opportunities to urgently reduce non-essential spending; and start evaluating post-crisis scenarios. 

The Private sector should: encourage remote work, safe working facilities and strict isolation of suspected cases. Supplier engagement, demand assessment and adjustments of production and operations will ensure business continuity. Customers often ignore survey and feedback requests; well, now businesses have a real chance to engage with their markets and customers - now is the time to make offers, ask them to complete lengthy online surveys and feedback forms, etc. In any case, we are at home! Stress-test financials, reduce your energy consumption and print trail. If you have been wanting to reduce printing at the office, now is the time to experiment; innovate, innovate, innovate! Also, work hand-in-hand with government to manage and mitigate the crisis. 

Third sector organisations should consider repurposing funding towards COVID-19 response and recovery efforts; incentivizing and helping the government to make smarter investments—both to address the immediate needs of the pandemic response, and build resilient healthcare and economic systems for the future. Technical assistance to government for the development of effective fiscal and business stimulus packages will be crucial including the design of new financial instruments to support businesses and countries - solutions spanning liquidity, re-insurance, conditional cash transfers, etc.

NGOs could boost access to critical healthcare supplies (such as testing kits and masks); the capacity of the healthcare system (including increasing the number of hospital beds); and the availability of healthcare professionals. The third sector could also boost resource mobilization for many bold new pan-African or regional initiatives underway to address the pandemic.

While it is possible that we might settle back into our usual routines after the pandemic, the post-pandemic era could bring a few lasting changes with it. Expect an obvious flight towards digital platforms for most basic transactions. Take this time to ponder your digital business strategy deeply. Jobs are likely to get ‘softer' with more google docs, Teams, Zoom, etc.

Many Ugandan start-ups are already benefiting from the surge in transactions via their digital channels according to a recent article by the International Trade Centre. Myefti, the Online Butchery, Bringo Fresh, Xente and ChapChap, AkelloBanker, ClinicMaster, Makanika Dot Com, Safeboda, Kola Studios, Yunga Tech, Kaino and Swipe2pay, I salute you!

Funerals happening during this period are remarkably less burdensome; the industry that has formed around death, marriage and the marking of other turning points in life will have to think seriously about the resilience of their models as the market responds to these new possibilities, especially if the current situation lasts till July.

Curious about the possible legal implications of this pandemic for employment, insurance, etc? Have a look at the FAQs circulated by MMAKS Advocates so you can have a more focused discussion with your lawyer/insurance provider. Families will be more creative about "quality family time".

Analytical skills, data science and programming knowledge will become even more desirable for those recruiting, so consider carefully what you would like to study in school.

Essential services could rise in status especially in more developed countries. If you want to go for kyeyo (that quality of kyeyo), now might be the time to start your online application for a passport.

Citizens in the developed world will demand more from their governments in terms of value for taxes, social protection, etc - maybe we will too. Business owners are realising who really works in their offices; expect to see more lay-offs, outsourcing, etc.

Donors will start to see some of the gaps in their development approaches; expect a renewed focus on the basics: health, education, WASH.

"Workshops", "Seminars", "Capacity-building", watch out! True Churches and worshippers will emerge stronger. I also expect lots of "Corona babies", can't wait to welcome you guys! You will enter a world where no one is exempt from handwashing, from the eldest down to you!

The writer is an international development expert

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