Why Mbabazi is considered a better TDA choice

By Moses Mulondo

The Democratic Alliance (TDA) national candidates committee has ranked former prime minister, Amama Mbabazi as the best choice for a joint opposition presidential candidate to challenge NRM’s President Yoweri Museveni.

It is upon that background and other factors to be expounded in this article that TDA will today most likely announce Mbabazi the flagbearer.

But the decision has become more complicated after Besigye’s supporters led by MPs Patrick Amuriat, Odonga Otto and Jack Sabiti disrupted a TDA meeting in Bugolobi and forced Besigye out of it asking him to quit.

Following these incidents, there is now a new debate ignited by Justice Forum (JEEMA) president Asuman Basalirwa that TDA fields more than one presidential candidate to deny President Museveni a winning percentage of 51%.

The committee ranked former FDC leader Dr. Kizza Besigye as the second best choice. This means although there are four candidates in the race, it has become a two-horse race.

It will however be an uphill task to convince Besigye’s supporters, who passionately believe Besigye is the most popular candidate, going by recent opinion polls.

Although Besigye is very popular among the ordinary opposition members, he is not popular among the top brass of the opposition not only because he is not a good team player but also because of past friction he has had with them.

There is also a general fear among other opposition parties that if Besigye takes the flag it would give FDC an edge over them in the 2016 general elections. This is the major reason why most of the stakeholders of the other opposition parties have chosen to back Mbabazi who is an independent candidate.

The other shortcoming about Besigye is his consistent ‘no reforms no elections’ campaign which is widely seen as no longer feasible considering that parliament closed the window for reforms and went into recess until after the general elections.

This campaign makes many opposition leaders fear risking the TDA flag with Besigye who is on record to have repeatedly said he would never stand for presidency again if the current Electoral Commission headed by Eng. Badru Kiggundu is not disbanded for a new one agreed upon by all stakeholders.

The other common argument is that Besigye’s personality, which is associated with anger.

It is further argued that Mbabazi's vital networks within the ruling NRM and various state institutions including cabinet and security forces can provide the necessary capacity for the coalition to defeat President Museveni.
 

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There are four candidates in the TDA race, but Mbabazi and Besigye are the favorite. (Credit: Mary Kansiime)

Intelligence information that has leaked in the media and other fora like the IGP Kale Kayihura’s leaked tapes have been linked to Mbabazi’s camp and it is believed that such sensitive information can be greatly used in bringing down a regime.  

Besigye’s other disadvantage is the fact that he has lost the contest three times with declining support evidenced by his score of 37% in 2006 and 26% in the 2011 election.

It is also widely believed that since the opposition requires a lot of resources to successfully compete with the NRM which uses a lot of money in campaigns, having Mbabazi who is reportedly having more financial muscle than his contenders would make the alliance more competitive.

Mbabazi’s personality of fair good looks, smiles, calmness even when in storms, exceptional confidence and being a team player/organization with various groups charged with responsibilities like lawyers, communication experts, and private security give him an edge over Besigye and other contenders.

Unlike Besigye who made a grave mistake in 2011 of saying he would withdraw UPDF from Somalia which scared away the international community from him, Mbabazi mastered the art and significance of international interests and this has reportedly attracted many development partners to support his presidential bid.

Throughout history, international interests of giant western countries have caused the rise and fall of many African leaders.

The TDA summit has a very difficult choice to make between Besigye who is ranked the most popular in opinion polls, and Mbabazi who has been ranked the best choice by the TDA candidates’ selection committee.

This dilemma gives justification to each of the two candidates to pull out of TDA, claiming the choice has not been fair.

Whichever choice TDA makes between Mbabazi and Besigye or any of the four candidates, it is as certain as day follows night that some stakeholders will not come to terms with the final choice. Some of Besigye’s supporters have already indicated publicly that they will pull out of TDA if Besigye is not given the flag.

Conservative Party (CP) president John Ken Lukyamuzi also threatened to pull out of the coalition if the flag is given to Mbabazi who still claims to be a member of NRM.

Lukyamuzi thinks the flag should be given to someone who belongs to the traditional opposition like Besigye or Mao.

Going by the internal friction and sharp disagreements that have characterized the process, the most likely aftermath of the TDA choice for a joint presidential candidate is disintegration.