Can sh23.9 trillion budget deliver the expected development in Uganda?

Jul 02, 2015

The theme for the financial Year 2015/16 budget is ‘maintaining infrastructure investment and promoting excellence in public service delivery of Uganda’s economy’.

By Sam Mucunguzi

The theme for the financial Year 2015/16 budget is ‘maintaining infrastructure investment and promoting excellence in public service delivery of Uganda’s economy’.

The underlying objective of this theme is to ensure continuous removal of the binding constraints that impede socio-economic transformation and prosperity as identified in the National Development Plan and the NRM Manifesto

The Government’s development policy agenda by selecting three of the nine opportunities identified in the Vision 2040.

Initial discussions point to the selection of agriculture, tourism and mining, oil and gas as the three key development opportunities and infrastructure and human capital development as the two fundamentals in order to achieve the opportunities in economic growth of at least 6% per annum,  maintain annual inflation within single  digits,  maintain foreign exchange reserves cover of at least the equivalent of 4.5 months of imports of goods and services and maintain a real exchange rate compatible with a competitive external sector.

The pace of GDP growth is expected to pick up during FY2014/15 and FY2015/16, growing at 5.3% and 5.8%, respectively. The drivers of this growth include a rebound in agricultural production and a recovery in private demand as households and corporations deleverage and start accessing bank credit.

The question, however, is with 3% of national budget being allocated to agriculture, this assumption is likely to stay on paper for long, unless the Government realises that 80% of the labour force works primarily for themselves or their families, mainly in the agricultural sector. Although most individuals mainly work in agriculture, in rural areas agriculture remains the most important source of income, on average accounting for slightly over half of household income, but non-agricultural household enterprises and wage employment have emerged as important supplementary income sources, accounting for 15% and 14% of average household income respectively.  

 Unemployment is relatively increasing, particularly among those with higher education. Although the majority of Ugandans lack wage employment, few are classified as unemployed.

The unemployment reported by Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) was 4.2% in 2009/10, and 9.4% in 2012/13.  The youth are slightly more likely to be unemployed compared to older workers.  

URA revenue is projected to reach sh10,988.5b in FY2015/16, while NTR is expected to reach sh271.5b. The tax-GDP-ratio is expected to grow to 13.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points on the FY 2014/15 provisional outturn, if it is well allocated to priority sectors, that can trigger development in the country  facilitating private sector enterprise for increased investment, employment and economic growth, effective delivery of infrastructure development and maintenance,  commercialising production and productivity in primary growth sectors, enhancing capacity for increased domestic revenue mobilisation, increasing social service delivery and  enhancing efficiency in government management.

The sector priorities that government ministries, agencies and departments (MDA’s) have identified for implementation in the FY 2015/16 Budget have been crafted in line with the above strategic thrust, with the ultimate objective being to improve the standards of living of all Ugandans.

The budget strategy has, therefore, identified and considered the key emerging issues for the formulation of priorities for the 2015/16 Budget, taking cognisance of the NDP, the NRM manifesto, sector plans and key ongoing government programmes.

All this will remain unattainable, if the lethal corruption is not dealt with seriously as it has proved to be a major constraint to implementation.

According to the National Development Plan, Uganda’s is supposed to grow at an average rate of 7.2% per annum. However, due to the still existing binding constraints, the annual GDP growth for the period FY 2010/11 to FY 2013/14 has averaged 5.5% and is projected to be 5.3% and 5.8% in FY2014/15 and FY2015/16 respectively.

De-linking non-state actors such as the Private sector, Civil Society organisations (CSOs), the media, development partners and the academia from planning, implementation and monitoring of Government programmes affects the budget negatively.

The education and sports sector priorities over the next five years are aimed at enabling the country to offer education as a basic human right with the main goal of equipping learners/trainees with relevant knowledge and skills necessary for socio-economic transformation and development by 2040.

The priorities will broadly focus on providing pre-primary and primary children with literacy, numeracy and basic life skills; producing secondary education graduates with the skills and knowledge required to enter workforce or pursue tertiary and higher education; and providing equal opportunities to eligible students including those from disadvantaged backgrounds to access quality higher or tertiary education.

The strategies to achieve equitable access to appropriate and quality education and training for rapid Transformation of the society and economy of the country will include: Ensuring universal participation in the primary education system, increasing equitable access at all levels of Post Primary Education and Training (UPPET and Skilling Uganda), increasing equitable participation in a coordinated and diversified higher education system.

The fact remains, that sizable number of school age children are still out of school- variously estimated at to be 18% by the latest Uganda national household survey (UNHS) 2013/2014 and 6% by ministry of education and sports ( MOES, 2014a)- the debate is now steadily shifting from expanding access to improving learning.

It is generally agreed among education stakeholders in Uganda that the battle to achieve UPE will not be won until all children that enroll in primary 1 complete the entire primary cycle on time with satisfactory learning outcomes. Recent data from ministry of education, science, Technology and sports and Uganda national examination board show that of the 1, 897,114 million children who enrolled in primary 1 in 2008, only 585,885 sat for the primary leaving examination(PLE) in 2014 (approximately 31% completion rate).

Furthermore among the few pupils who completed Primary 7 and sat for PLE, 68,760 (12%) failed. One out of 10 children assessed in Primary 3, and 7 out of 10 assessed in Primary 7 were able to read and comprehend a Primary 2 level story and solve primary 2 level division (Annual learning assessment Report for 2014-Uwezo).

There is need for temperance, honest in admitting failure and urgency in renewing our focus to improve learning to be able to achieve prosperity for all and vision 2040 with competent youth, for employment regionally and globally, enterprising and innovative but when all these basics are lacking, it remains a dream.

The Government acknowledges that human resource gaps arising out of low staffing levels and absence of critical staff in various sectors has continued to negatively impact on service delivery especially in education, health, agriculture, ICT and local governments in general.

The national debt is increasingly shooting up and borrowing must be regulated and also, timely repay to be highly respected to avoid mortgaging our country in a near feature.

This all is possible with reduced cost of administration; Corruption remains an impediment to development and a barrier to poverty reduction in Uganda. The Accountability Sector has put up measures to combat corruption and enhancing prevention, detection and elimination of corruption that will be realized through; strengthening the institutional and legal framework, capacity of investigation and prosecution function.

The writer is a programme assistant, Tripartite Initiative for Resource Governance in Africa (Tirga)

 

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