Let the budget tackle economic challenges to achieve Vision 2040

trueBy Mwaka Emmanuel Lutukumoi

“If you are born poor, it is not your mistake, if you die poor, It is your mistake” Bill Gates once taught us. Uganda is still rated among the poorest countries in the world though with amazing development, peace and stability.

Uganda, ordinarily, must after the 52 years of independence, seen equivalent development with some Asian countries like Singapore, how development was arrested by war, conflict and lack of addressing economic challenges.

Currently, our population has bulged from about eight million from 50 years ago to over 35 million (2014 census), with a total GDP of sh67trillion/$25b and per capita of sh1.7m/ $628.

Ordinarily with good economic policies from 1962, we must have achieved the vision and dream of 2040, of taking Uganda away from Peasantry to a modern, prosperous and industrialised country 10 years ago. But not all is gone since the biggest obstacle- stability/ security is secured. Uganda has had its nasty past cocktailed by war and insurgents, with state making being the art of war.

The immediate economic challenge of Uganda is not a new model to be adapted but rather a strategic move to raise agriculture, productivity, reduce subsistence and increase house hold income, facilitate structural transformation of the economy to create more decent jobs, improve export and performances.

Our balance of trade is poor because we consume more than export. These will help reverse the reverse growth, where Agriculture constitutes 76% of employment sector, Service 22% and Industry a paltry 5%. This is the reverse of development of USA, Europe and East Asia. From 1987 Uganda has had tremendous reforms but we need now more growth than reforms.

Uganda must also reverse the mistake of adopting Say’s Law that “Supplies creates demand” Jean Baptist say (1767-1832), we should reverse it that “demand must create supply”, this will see us produce more and supply more thus altering the poor balance of trade.

Critically, excessive liberalisation has made it impossible for government to do business. We must note that we have not only open free market but also free-for all markets. This has made us vulnerable to other countries operating in Uganda. Indians, Kenyans and now Chinese are taking advantage of this. In the integration, the Kenyans are taking comparative advantage on transport and services. They have taken banking, transport and hotel business. They have dominated in business, with consumerism mentality, the Uchumi and Turskeys have taken Ugandan’s aback.

Uganda has excelled in building peace in the region. However it has been like a good village fighter who doesn’t search the pocket of the one he has defeated. However other countries proved aggressive, after each defeat, you get them in South Sudan, in Somalia and others completely taking charge of the economics. They are indeed great village fighters who believe the world is but a jungle.

Resent research shows that Uganda has over democratised and politicised development decision, making it difficult to transform the economy and sustain growth.  This must change and decisions after 2016 elections will no doubt address this gap. Uganda must immediately stabilise gate farm prices and reduce post-harvest loses like immunisation to children, encourage agro processing and punitively fight the corrupt.

Besides we need to let our budget tackle Agro processing, Agri-business, assembly plants and cottage industries since 76% of our population is still employed by Agriculture. The efforts by government to improve household income through operation wealth creation will no doubt improve household income of Ugandans, making Uganda a country that will not grow rich with poor citizens.

The country has a task to revisit its economic models, besides benefits that will accrue by emphasis on infrastructure, Energy and Industry. We will quickly achieve vision 2040 sooner than later.

The writer is Deputy RDC of Lira district