Economy moving in line with the NRM Manifesto

By Paul Busharizi

In the last year the Government wrestled inflation down from record highs to more manageable levels but in the process dampened economic activity, but raised hope for a recovery in growth to targeted levels.

In April inflation had slowed to 3.4% from 20.3% a year ago in line with the NRM’s pledge to maintain macro-economic stability. In October 2011 inflation hit a 19 year high of 30%.

The dramatic rise in prices was triggered by regional food shortages that put pressure on Uganda’s supplies, a simultenous rise in oil prices and campaign related spending at the beginning of 2011.

Prompt action by the central bank to mop up excess liquidity, with higher issues of treasury bills and bonds and to discourage lending, by raising its central bank rate, while widely unpopular was the medicine required to slow down price increases.

The central bank fended off calls to ease up on their attack on inflation, which to their credit they shrugged off to deliver on a promise to bring inflation under the targeted 5% by year end 2012.

This success has come at a steep price to the Ugandan businessman.

Rising lending rates as a result of the Bank of Uganda action have not only discouraged borrowing, but has seen existing loans becoming more costly to service, the net effect of which has been loan defaults and attachment of mortgaged properties by the banks.

A cursory analysis of the top banks shows that bad loans as a proportion of total assets doubled in 2012 compared to the previous year.

As a result business activity has dampened in the last year.

Economic growth slowed to 3.4% in 2012 from 6.6% the previous year. It is expected that that this financial year which ends in June, the economy will grow by 5%.

This is far short of the stated aim of growing the economy by 10% a year.

However it is not a hopeless situation as Uganda continues to tick of projects that will make this ambitious growth target a reality. The improved economic sentiment can probably be attributed to an increase in power generation, with the coming on line of 250 MW from the Bujagali dam last year.

Prior to Bujagali’s complete commissioning last year day-long load shedding had set in and the country was relying on expensive diesel power plants to bridge the deficit.

Last year an additional small hydropower dams came online – Bugoye, Buseruka and Nyagaka, adding 30MW to the grid.

Uganda’s installed generation capacity is now about 700MW.

The tenders for the construction of the 700 MW Karuma dam in northern Uganda is currently tied up in a messy procurement process. Expectation is that the bottlenecks will be cleared and a contractor will be in place by year end.

It is projected that it will take six years to build the dam.

Other infrastructure developments in the last year is the completion of 27455 km of road. During the period the Kampala-Mityana, Kampala-Gayaza-Zirobwe, Kabale-Kisoro-Bunagana and Jinja-Bugiri roads were completed.

At least 700 km of road construction and rehabilitation is ongoing  including the new Kampala-Entebbe super highway as well as on the new Jinja bridge. All this has been made possible by the country’s increasing capacity to finance its own expenditures.

This financial revenues of sh7.2 trillion are expected and it is projected that next year collections will be up to sh9.3 trillion or 75% of the sh12 trillion budget.

This is in line with the NRM’s target to raise revenues to 18% of GDP from the current 13% where it has remained for the last decade or so, and also to fully finance the budget from local resources by 2016.

This is also particularly critical in the light of recent donor aid cuts.

Last year donors announced a $300m (sh780b) cut in budget support in reaction to revelations of graft in the Office of the prime minister and in the public service ministry. Though under a tenth of the projected budget most of this money goes towards development projects – building roads, schools and health centres and may stall many critical projects.

A total of more than sh50b went missing in the prime minister’s office – meant for relief activities in northern Uganda and another sh100b went unaccounted for in the public service ministry, being money meant for pension payments.

A parliamentary inquiry as well as a wide ranging police case have been instituted to get to the bottom of the scam, part of preconditions to a return to donor budget support.

In oil sector the Government passed into law two pieces of legislation that will regulate the licensing, production and value addition in the oil industry.

A third law to govern the management of the revenues will be incorporated in the public finance bill, which will incorporate oil revenues as part of the government revenues and plan for them within the context of the national budget.

Negotiations are on-going on how to evacuate the oil. Government insists that it wants a sizeable refinery bigger than 30,000 barrels a day, which approximately our current national demand, while the investors would rather have a smaller refinery and evacuate the remaining crude oil via pipeline.

Meanwhile it is expected that at least $10b will have to be invested in the western Uganda oil fields before they reach full production.

Going by the current level of progress industry expect do not expect any oil to be commercially produced before 2016.

During the current period, arbitration between Uganda and oil explorer Heritage Oil & Gas in the UK, in which capital gains tax by the explorer is in dispute, it was ruled that an earlier decision in the tax tribunal for Heritage to pay its dues was upheld.

And to bring it all together the government launched the Vision 2040. The document envisions that we will be middle income country by 2040 with per capita income of $9500, which will be achieved by achieving an average annual economic growth rate of 8.2%.

The economy has shown itself to be resilient in the face of a difficult economic environment but for the time being the worst seems behind us.

3 THINGS ABOUT THE ECONOMY.

• Negotiations are on-going on how to evacuate the oil. Government wants a refinery bigger than 30,000 barrels
• In April inflation had slowed to 3.4% from 20.3% a year ago in line with the NRM’s pledge to maintain macro-economic stability
• There are so many infrastructure developments

By Charles Etukuri

Why Museveni Still stands out

There are few politicians in Uganda as fascinating as President Yoweri Museveni. Largely regarded as a model of modern African leadership, Museveni came to power after a protracted guerrilla war to establish the rule of law that he launched in 1981 which culminated into the overthrow of Tito Okello on January 26, 1986.

When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) Government came to power, the country was in ruins. He immediately set to work; faced with the enormous task of rebuilding the country that was largely in ruins following the war and looting, a dwindling agricultural economy which was the back-borne of the country and a marauding gang of defeated soldiers who were on rampage looting and raping and had made some parts of the country ungovernable as they tried to launch another war to bring themselves back to power.

Today his successes and achievements override the negativity his opponents associate with overstaying in power. Ugandans are proud that President Museveni has been able to achieve a feat no other Ugandan President did. He has successfully brought the army under control and galvanised the nation into one.

President Museveni shows the NRM party symbol as supporters welcome him during a by-election in Jinja in 2011
 

Character

Those close to him say he is a politician of his own merit, a resilient actor who does not give up easily, very patient and efficient but also very ruthless and relentless in the pursuit of his dreams; a character some people would say portrays him as a dictator, but is what he needs to be if he is to succeed in the tough political environment that Uganda now finds itself in.

Museveni has been able to transform the NRM into a formidable political vehicle and today, it is not possible for anyone to operate inside the Movement and challenge his hold because of his unreserved popularity.

His biggest contribution was the spearheading the enactment of the 1995 Constitution. The Constitution was a landmark document that guarantees the rights and freedoms of citizens in this country.

The army

The history of the army in Uganda has been dominated by a factionalised force controlled along tribal, religious and ethnic lines but today the ragtag National Resistance Army under the leadership of Museveni has been successfully transformed into a national army and named the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces. It is a success a national army with a cohesive sound administrative structure where promotions are based on merit not tribal inclinations.


Model in Africa

At a regional level, he is respected and being one of the most senior leaders he commands a lot of respect. He has also emerged as a model of modern African leadership and has been a force for stability, not only in Uganda, but in the Great Lakes Region. Uganda has been at the centre of several peace missions and restoration of rule and order, the most recent being Somalia where terrorists were flushed out from key towns.

He is also a liberator and has supported several liberation movements geared towards fighting oppression like the South Sudan People’s Army which fought for the independence of South Sudan.

International relations

President Museveni has also successfully been able to reestablish relations with bilateral and multilateral donors. Through this relationship, the donors have constantly supported the country’s budget and the money channelled through to support the masses through different government programmes. These relationship has of recent been affected by claim of massive corruption but the government is working to restore it again.


Media

One of Museveni’s biggest legacies is the liberation of the media and putting in place media freedom. Uganda today has the most liberal media in the Africa with over 200 FM stations and several independent magazines and newspapers. The media has been allowed to flourish but the biggest challenge now faced is how to streamline and sensitise the media on how best to enjoy this freedom without inciting the masses and infringing on other people rights.

Economy

Throughout his tenure at the helm of the country’s leadership, the Uganda economy has tremendously grown and revitalised. Recently the World Bank praised Uganda for its strong record of prudent macroeconomic management and structural reforms. Museveni’s strong commitment to building local capacity has seen him advocate to value addition and investment of the countries resources in developing locals.

The discovery of oil and its related benefits under the NRM government would be a big boost to the economy in the coming years.

He has spearheaded the construction of markets in local areas through to enable farmer’s access markets. He has also ensured that support for farmers is provided for through the numerous schemes like the National Agricultural Advisory Services and many other interventions.

Marginalised groups

He has also protected the marginalised groups especially women, youth and the disabled and all this are ably represented in key sectors of the economy. Where possible the NRM government has issued special bonuses to enable the marginalised groups compete favourably. For instance, today women admitted to higher institutions of learning are given free additional points.

New laws reserve 30% of local government seats for women, and address women’s rights to land, property, and credit and Uganda was among the first African country to bring women into the mainstream politics. Under Museveni’s leadership a woman Dr. Speciosa Kazibwe held the second most powerful docket in the country. Today so many women head different organisations in the country and also are well placed in key government positions.


Education

On the education sector, Uganda was the first country in the East and Central African region to introduce both free Universal and Secondary education. The Education ministry is among those that have been given the biggest share of the national cake and now efforts are being made to ensure that teachers get salary increment. Several higher institutions of learning and colleges have also been licensed to operate.

Health

On health the biggest challenge the NRM faced was the scourge of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS). But the NRM Government launched a massive campaign against the disease that had killed thousands and left hundreds as orphans. There have been reported cases of increased new infections but overall Uganda has been used as a case of countries that were successful in the AIDS fight and today patients can freely access Anti Recto Viral drugs to lengthen their lives.

The youth

He blends well with the youth and in the wake up of the 2012 March polls, Museveni unleashed a-cappella rap at a student rally. It was recorded and it became an instant hit in several disco halls and boosted his popularity among the youth.

On infrastructure development, President Museveni has been at the helm of lobbying for key donor funding and where there have been shortcomings he has advocated for the use of internal revenue to build infrastructure. Today the present is better than the past in terms of infrastructure.

Several roads have been tarmacked opening up the rural areas. There has been construction of new dams to increase power production for industrialisation to take place and power has been extended to rural areas under the Rural Electrification programme under the Ministry of Energy. New schools and hospitals have been built among others.

Politics

The political space has been opened and several parties registered. Museveni has faced a number of political candidates but has always emerged the winner. Though there have been claims of massive rigging in the elections, Museveni remains favourite because of the choice of political opponents who instead of fighting their opponent, fighting themselves instead.

Museveni has openly come out and advocated for the fight against corruption. He has ensured that the bodies tasked with the fight of this vice remain independent and has appointed credible people to head anti-corruption institutions. The only challenge he faces is the poor coordination among other institutions.
 
By Innocent Anguyo

Uganda's democracy cannot be stopped
Opposition activists take to the streets; the media is awash with caricatures of President Museveni, the court sentences former junior minister of Health Capt. Mike Mukula to four years in jail, Parliament summons Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi over corruption, and Usuk County shuns aged politicians in favour of 19-year old Proscovia Alengot.

Alluding to the above depiction of Uganda today, the country, under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni is a vindication of the adage that the rights of democracy are not reserved for a select group within society; they are the rights of all the people.

In his 2011-2016 manifesto, President Museveni pledged full commitment to promoting and preserving democracy and good governance in Uganda. Indeed, today political pluralism thrives, rule of law soldiers on, devolution is stronger than ever and freedom of expression blossoms.

Ever since the introduction of multiparty politics in 2005 in a bid to magnify political participation in  Uganda, no more than today has the country seen a multiplicity of fora for its citizens to exercise their right to make their voices heard in the affairs of their country.

As the NRM continues to enjoy dominance of the political spectrum in the country, opposition political parties seem to be taking full advantage of the level ground to strengthen their structures and support base across the country too. Today, there are over 40 registered political parties in Uganda.

People line up to vote in Entebbe in February 2011 elections. Elections are held every five years since

In a bid to ensure legitimacy of government, based on the consent of the governed reached through free, fair, and regular elections, the NRM Government has buoyed the Electoral Commission (EC) in executing its constitutional mandate. This ensures that through an elected Executive, Parliament, its committees and local councils, the people make their own decisions about their vital affairs.

A fully functional multiparty system of governance, with NRM as the majority party in the Executive, Parliament and Local Councils; and with an opposition represented in Parliament, its committees and the Local Councils, multiparty democracy has been restored and is taking firm root in Uganda.

However, owing to the increasing election petitions over malpractice, the Uganda Human Rights Commission (UHRC) urges the EC to improve on the conduct of elections in order to increase citizens’ trust in the electoral process and outcomes, and also to give meaning to citizen participation.

To that end, other than supporting the EC in organising the recent by-elections, the Government through Parliament, is in the final stages of flagging-off a series of consultative workshops to review Uganda’s electoral laws in preparations for free, fair, transparent and objective elections in 2016.According to Diason Okumu, Parliament’s director, Corporate Planning and Strategy, the workshops will have representatives from all political parties, civil society, the private sector and parliamentary committees led by the committee on legal and parliamentary affairs.

“We shall also use the workshops as a platform to discuss the code of conduct of political parties with special regards to their funding, accountability for funds, inclusiveness, structures and discipline,” Okumu said. The code of conduct will thereafter be adopted in Parliament.

A police officer talks to Kampala traders during a protest against the lack of electricity on some city streets in 2011

NRM has continued to strike a code with strict devotion to human rights. The freedoms of association, assembly and expression have been vigorously promoted and upheld. The Ugandan media is largely free, vibrant and ever growing. Today, there are over 100 media outlets in Uganda.

Freedom in the World, a yearly survey and report by U.S based Freedom House that attempts to measure the degree of democracy and political freedom in every nation and significant disputed territories around the world regards Uganda as partly free.

It produces annual scores representing the levels of political rights and civil liberties in each state and territory, on a scale from 1 (most free) to 7 (least free). Depending on the ratings, the nations are then classified as ‘Free’, ‘Partly Free’ and ‘Not Free’. Uganda scored 4 this year up from 5 it garnered last year.

However, UHRC Acting Chairperson Dr. Katebalirwe Amooti states that Uganda having enacted the Access to Information Act in 2005 in order, to provide for the citizen’s right to access information from government bodies pursuant to Article 41 of the Constitution, more needs to be done in order to realise the full enjoyment of this right.

“There is urgent need for citizens to access information pertaining to governance issues and service delivery, in order to empower them to demand for services as well as accountability from Government and their leaders,” reiterated Dr. Katebalirwe during this year’s international Human Rights day.

In the same vein, the newly formed parliamentary committee on Human Rights is mandated to review all laws in Uganda in light of ensuring that they have Human Rights tinge.

The NRM Government has worked to uphold the independence and vibrancy of the Judiciary. For example, in the last two years, the Courts have nullified many parliamentary elections especially those won by NRM candidates.

To live to his promise to promote justice for all by enhancing access to judicial services throughout the country, President Museveni recently named 28 new judges to fill vacant positions in the Supreme Court, Court of Appeal and High Court. Despite the appointments being subject to parliamentary approval, they are a gesture of NRM’s commitment to a healthy and fully constituted judiciary.

Museveni has continued to strengthen devolution of power, this time by halting creation of more districts in a bid to improve efficiency and effectiveness of the local governments.

According to the Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance released last year, Uganda made a marked improvement in governance in the last decade under NRM. In East Africa, Uganda came second after Tanzania. Overall, Uganda was ranked 19th out of the 52 African countries.

The index is published by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which was established by the London based Sudanese telecom tycoon, Mo Ibrahim, to promote good governance in Africa. However, Uganda is still ranked among the worst performing countries in human development, a United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report reveals.

Human Development 2013, ranked Uganda 161 out of 182 countries in human development, a position the country has held for the last three years. This calls for improvement of quality of education and health even though UNDP senior economic advisor Alex Warren-Rodrigues points out that Uganda’s has made tremendous stride in the two sectors in the last 20 years.

By Pamela Ankunda

Why government must set priorities

We have known over the years that the Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) collections since 1986 have increased from sh5bn in 1986, to over sh6,000bn by 2012. Industries share of GDP has increased from less than 9% in 1986 to well over 25% and inflation has been brought down to less than 4% today from over double digits, but to a common man, these figures and statistics don’t easily translate to meet their expectations.

Increasing salaries of health staff is one the the promises in the NRM manifesto

You listen to talk shows and people ask where the money collected goes to and how it is spent. Some are not aware that the resource envelop of a society like ours faced with transformation challenges can’t meet the entire budget expectations, so prioritising becomes a necessity.

That is what Government promised, two years ago; prioritisation. Some key priority areas have been infrastructure, education and the health sector and we’ll talk about those briefly.
Uganda People’s defence Forces

First, I am compelled to share my thoughts on this UPDFtalk that’s been an obsession-especially on social media. Ugandans generally expect and deserve security, absence of which, we must hold the leadership accountable. One thing that can’t be wished or washed away is UPDF’s own success that Uganda has witnessed over time.

And that’s the UPDF I know- protecting me from border insecurity, out of the comfort zone in Central African Republic (CAR) with the African Union, contributing to infrastructural development with the Engineering Brigade, tackling terror at the roots, being active with defence diplomacy on the continent and beyond, gearing itself to build the railway line to the west and northern Tanzania, involvement in agricultural production by opening up farms that are spread in all regions and battling over 20 different armed rebellions. It is this UPDF I know, that can’t let Uganda down.

UPDF is a story of the proverbial 1,000 miles destined for greatness. The journey to professionalism demands that your leadership is tested once in a while and our job is-not to worry.
Energy

In spite of such accomplishment elsewhere, the common man has been indoctrinated to under-look any Ugandan success story. The 250MW Bujagali dam is distorted as an underachievement, the mini-hydro power stations launched two years ago- at Mpanga, Bugoye, Nyagak, Kisiizi, Ishasha and Buseruka as too small, and other smaller ones licensed for building equally dismissed.

The plan for 3,800 mega watts of electricity is disregarded as a one’s man’s vision, the over 2,500km of completed and commissioned medium voltage lines with more districts connected to the national grid are made to look insignificant even though the youth could possibly tap into that power outage to make small start-ups. In the end, these youth nurse shattered hopes and derailed ambitions of either riding a boda-boda, or fall prey to rebel recruitment for promise of quick money.

Rural electrification is on course
 

Education

So, how can the increase of primary schools in Uganda from less than19,000 in 2007 to over 22,500 in 2012, or government releases to the education sector alone from sh20.6bn per year from 2007 to over sh80.201bn by 2012, or the introduction of the Universal Post 0’level Education Training, or the launch of the Skilling Uganda programme that seeks to have a technical institute at constituency level to create employable skills and competencies relevant to the labour market, be translated into a success story without the mockery of the opposition? I choose to share the success of the promises that were made:

Completion of major roads like Kabale-Kisoro, Fort-Portal-Bundibugyo, Gulu -Atiak -Nimule and Soroti-Dokolo,

Commissioning of the euro2.3m 180ton MV Kyoga ferry-fabricated and assembled in Uganda,

Completion of health staff houses in districts like Hoima, Kabale, Soroti, Fort Portal, Arua, improvement in remuneration of workers (started with medical officers at Health Centre IVs to sh2.5million), paying allowances to staff in hard to reach areas, launching of the free cervical cancer screening for girls below 15 years and launch of the pneumonia vaccine-a big boost to further elimination of killer diseases,

Having more industrial trainees in food processing and other vocational skills,

Passing the Petroleum Bill and the firm commitment by the leadership that oil revenue will be used to create a durable capacity for the country so that future generations would benefit. This would be achieved through electrifying the whole country, revamping the railway, supporting scientific education and innovation, diversifying the economy among others.

Much more needs to be done, but we must be humble enough to know our position as a developing country. Sometimes, it is the lack of admission into reality that triggers unrealistic demands like 100% salary increase, when an investment into a priority area would have made more economic sense. Government though must find realistic means to cut on excess spending to save monies for priority areas.


The writer is an NRM cadre