Is the Uganda Vision 2040 achievable?

By Joel Ogwang                                                                                   

When you dream, maintains an adage, you walk half way a journey. Indeed, it is through fantasy that Uganda seeks to realise the biggest leap in her history.

Globally known more for her political and economic turbulent past under Idi Amin, high morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS and other diseases, corruption, and unemployment than her numerous potentials, Ugandans are keen on ‘re-branding’ and ensuring a universal transformation of their country through the Uganda Vision 2040.

Through this road-map, Uganda seeks to hop from the doldrums of a third-world state in which she is currently trapped, into a lower middle-income country by 2017 and an upper middle-income country by 2032

What is Vision 2040?

“Some people call it a book, others think it is a document,” says Dr. Wilberforce Kisamba Mugerwa, the National Planning Authority (NPA) chief.

“But the Uganda Vision 2040 is a reflection of Uganda’s aspirations and what they wish their country to be by the year 2040.”

The vision seeks “A transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years.”

Designed and developed by NPA, the vision, a modification of the failed Vision 2025 as well as a review of visions of Kenya, Rwanda, Malaysia, Botswana, Qatar and, India, was recently launched by President Yoweri Museveni. 

“We need $200b to implement this plan,” said Museveni. “With our oil, this will not be a problem. Even without oil, but with discipline, we would have raised the money to implement this plan (by 2040).”

The implementation of the blue-print will be spearheaded by Museveni, coordinated by the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) while the NPA will ensure National Development Plans (NDPs), Sector Investment Plans (SIP) and Sector Strategic Plans (SSPs) are aligned to Vision 2040. 

What it entails

It aims at leap-frogging Uganda from a low income country to a competitive upper middle income country with per capita income of $9, 500 by 2040, up from the current $506.

Simply put, it seeks to inspire and economically empower a Ugandan who currently earns about sh1.3m annually to reap sh25m over the next 27-years.

The 2010 baseline data from Uganda Bureau of Statistics indicates that Uganda’s per capita income and Gross National Product (GNP) are $506 and $17b, respectively.

Whilst it seeks to reduce by nearly five-folds the population of Ugandans wallowing in abject poverty from 24.5% to 5%, Vision 2040, if realised, will ensure the country’s per capita income and GDP rise to $950 and $580b.

Over the 27-year vision period, average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will be over 8.2% per annum, translating into total GDP of about USD580.5b with a projected population of 61.3 million in 2040.

To attain this, Uganda will need to exploit her enormous and novelty opportunities like oil and gas, tourism, minerals, ICT business, abundant youthful labour-force, strategic geographical location, fresh water resources, industries and agriculture.

These opportunities will be harnessed through strengthening fundamentals including Peace, Security and Defence, Physical infrastructure (transport, ICT and energy), Science, technology, Engineering and Innovation (STEI); Land; Urbanisation and globally competitive human resource.

Key flagship projects

•         A HI-TECH ICT city and associated ICT infrastructure
•         Large irrigation schemes in different parts of the country
•         phosphate industry in Tororo, Iron ore industry in Muko; five regional cities and five strategic cities; ten international airports
•         A standard gauge railway network with high speed trains
•         Oil refinery and associated pipeline infrastructure
•         Multi-lane paved national road network linking major towns, cities and other strategic locations
•         Globally competitive skills development centres
•         One nuclear power station and hydro power stations
•         Science and technology parks in each regional city
•         International and national referral hospitals in each of the regional cities.

In order to become an upper middle income country by 2040, Uganda needs to generate 42, 000 MW of electricity from all hydro sources, the petroleum and gas sources, geo-thermal and nuclear sources using uranium.

Bottlenecks to Uganda’s development

During its launch, Museveni outlined 10 bottlenecks that hinder Uganda and Africa’s quest to achieve their goals of building an independent, integrated, self-sustaining national economy as;

•         Ideological disorientation typified by political actors in Africa making sectarian positions- religious, ethnic, gender etc
•         Inability to restructure the colonial state
•         Stifling of the private sector
•         Underdeveloped human resource which were not skilled and no healthy which don’t power socio-economic transformation
•         Inadequate infrastructure that causes the costs of doing business in the economy to go up, thereby rendering out product uncompetitive and undermining the profitability of investments by having the said high costs
•         Small internal markets in the respective countries on account of the colonial balkanisation
•         Lack of industrialisation and exporting raw materials instead of finished products
•         Under-developed services sector
•         Under-developed agriculture
•         Lack of democracy

Considering that these challenges still exist today, can Uganda achieve Vision 2040?

“Yes, it is achievable depending on the speed at which it is sold to people and they adopt ideological orientation,” says Prof. Augustus Nuwagaba, a development consultant.

“In Malaysia, development was achieved over 30-years because everyone had the burden to achieve it. We can also do it!” 

To achieve the vision, Gerald Ssendaula, the Private Sector Foundation Uganda (PSFU) chairman says; “Each Ugandan should live a life that is worth. We have just celebrated 50 years of Independence and we must create jobs and train the youths in a conducive investment environment.”

However, while he concedes it is realisable, planning state minister, Matia Kasaija reckons; “If we have security, power, good road and railways network, a healthy, educated and skilled population, Vision 2040 is feasible,”

Patrick B. Birungi, the NPA head of economic and strategic planning, notes that whilst Uganda has the necessary resources to achieve Vision 2040, corruption in state and private sector institutions have to be addressed.

“In Vision 2040, we (NPA) are calling for policy shifts and one of the issues relating to addressing binding constraints to Uganda’s development is corruption,” he says.

“We need to address the problem of corruption and we envision that there shouldn’t be more Kazinda cases in the future.”
Uganda has, for the past two decades, been experiencing a steady economic growth averaging 6.5%. Vision 2040 seeks to hasten this to 8%, notes Kisamba. 

“This means that while other countries are walking, we must run,” he says. “But this will be slow because at this rate, even when Britain and USA grow at 2%, we can’t catch them. That is how important it is that we pool resources and fight together.”

Some Ugandans, Nuwagaba says, have the money needed to transform Uganda, “but we have to ensure it is everyone’s burden if we to actualise the vision.”

To achieve the Uganda Vision 2040, the country has to undertake radical interventions in her political and socio-economic realms of the economy. Whether this happens, only time will tell.