Analysis - Why NRM lost Mbale elections
Feb 18, 2010
ONCE bitten, twice shy, so goes the saying. But the lesson from the adage seems not to have sunk into many NRM politicians, who have not learnt from past polls where they have lost to the opposition due to independents.
By Cyprian Musoke
and Daniel Edyegu
ONCE bitten, twice shy, so goes the saying. But the lesson from the adage seems not to have sunk into many NRM politicians, who have not learnt from past polls where they have lost to the opposition due to independents.
Going by what transpired in the Mbale municipality parliamentary byelections that ended on Tuesday, it is apparent that there is need for strong intervention from the party leadership and internal legislation to bar independents from splitting the party vote.
Despite its popularity and clout in the area, the ruling National Resistance Movement lost to the Forum for Democratic Change in the hotly contested byelections.
FDC’s Jack Wamanga got 4,776 votes to beat his arch- rival, NRM’s John Wambogo, by 901 votes. Dr. James Shinyabulo Mutende, who ran as an independent after losing the NRM primaries to Wambogo, came third with 1,119 votes. It is widely believed that the split contributed to the NRM defeat.
The votes for the two NRM candidates, Wambogo (3,875) and Mutende (1,199), would have totalled 5,074, exactly 290 votes over those for Wamanga.
If the lesson is not carried into 2011, since each candidate, presidential or parliamentary, will be tussling it out on their own, the consequences might be dire for the NRM.
When President Yoweri Museveni visited Mbale during the NRM anniversary on January 26, most people expected him to announce the official candidate, but he decided to play safe by sitting on the fence.
“Ebyaffe ebya diiro sijja kubyogera wano. Naye njakukomawo mangu okubitereza. (I am not going to discuss our internal matters here. But I will come back soon to resolve the matter),†Museveni said.
The NRM anniversary, which was expected to be the anointment of Wambogo, left a lot of party voters in suspense on Museveni’s position on the two rivals.
To entrench the uncertainty further, Museveni told the voters to elect Wambogo during his February 14 rally at Mbale Secondary School but did not say Mutende was not worthy either.
“All these people who contested in the primaries were good. I appeal to the supporters of Mutende to give their votes to Wambogo. I have talked to all these candidates and told them that this tenure will only last 11 months,†Museveni said.
Wamanga criticises the President for using the NRM anniversary and the election day eve on Sunday to root for Wambogo.
He says Museveni’s agents in Mbale tried to hoodwink the people and appease the President by pouring murram on the potholed roads and passing graders through, which he says did not amuse the people.
“What the people of Mbale are protesting against are the poor social services and poor infrastructure like bad roads. They need drugs in the hospitals and safe drinking water. This is exactly what I am going to demand from government,†Wamanga told The New Vision just after being declared winner.
Wamanga enjoyed party solidarity right from the nominations on January 20. At the occasion, Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi, FDC spokesman Wafula Oguttu and the district party officials stood by him.
The team launched door-to-door campaigns in the municipality and were later fired up by FDC president Dr. Kizza Besigye, who held a four-day camp in the town to canvass for support.
“By the time Museveni came, he moved in the areas that had already been combed by FDC. The people of Mbale voted against NRM because they felt they were being coerced to elect somebody against their will,†Gerald Siranda from the Northern division says.
The shooting incident:
Perhaps one of the major setbacks for the NRM was the shooting incident in which the minister of state for housing, Michael Werikhe’s bodyguard shot at a vehicle in which Mutende’s campaign team was travelling.
Mutende’s supporter Abdallah Kayiwa was rushed to Mbale hospital with injuries. The incident occurred at 1:00pm and is widely believed to have swayed the undecided voters to go against the NRM.
“Being a working day, most people voted after 1:00pm. When the news started trickling through the local radio stations, people changed their minds and voted against Wambogo,†Joseph Elunya, a resident in Industrial Division says.
The Mutende factor
Prior to the disputed January 16 NRM primaries, a party meeting presided over by the NRM chief whip, Daudi Migereko, at Sunrise Hotel had agreed that all other candidates should back the winner of the primaries.
The meeting also agreed that to avoid discontent among candidates during the primaries, the NRM electoral commission must display voting registers five days to the polls to allow the electorate cross-check their names.
Unfortunately, the register was displayed on the polling date, where many NRM voters found their names missing. The disenfranchisement gave Mutende the guts to defy the President and continue as an independent.
Out of about 3,000 expected voters, only about 1,000 voted in the primaries.
It is also believed that the East African MP, Lydia Wanyoto Mutende, had a role to play, having been asked by top NRM officials like deputy secretary general Dorothy Hyuha and Migereko to convince her husband to step down for Wambogo to no avail.
It is feared that Mutende’s defiance could cost Wanyoto her MP seat, for which she was nominated by the NRM.
According Sam Wambuya, an independent candidate who got 65 votes, the NRM aspirants failed to agree due to greed.
“People are pursuing personal gains instead of working for the party. They look at NRM along personal gains. They have many camps, Michael Werikhe, Muhamood Masaba, I think that is what is killing the NRM here. The FDC are united and I think that collective work ethic is the reason they won,†he said.
Wambogo’s popularity
Wambogo was little known until the NRM primaries. He clung onto the legacy of the late third deputy premier, James Wapakhabulo, which did not play the trick.
“Nobody knew about Wambogo until he won the NRM primaries. So ugly rumours about his personal life started. If Mutende had been fronted in the primaries, he would have won the race,†says Samuel Masaba from Northern Division.
and Daniel Edyegu
ONCE bitten, twice shy, so goes the saying. But the lesson from the adage seems not to have sunk into many NRM politicians, who have not learnt from past polls where they have lost to the opposition due to independents.
Going by what transpired in the Mbale municipality parliamentary byelections that ended on Tuesday, it is apparent that there is need for strong intervention from the party leadership and internal legislation to bar independents from splitting the party vote.
Despite its popularity and clout in the area, the ruling National Resistance Movement lost to the Forum for Democratic Change in the hotly contested byelections.
FDC’s Jack Wamanga got 4,776 votes to beat his arch- rival, NRM’s John Wambogo, by 901 votes. Dr. James Shinyabulo Mutende, who ran as an independent after losing the NRM primaries to Wambogo, came third with 1,119 votes. It is widely believed that the split contributed to the NRM defeat.
The votes for the two NRM candidates, Wambogo (3,875) and Mutende (1,199), would have totalled 5,074, exactly 290 votes over those for Wamanga.
If the lesson is not carried into 2011, since each candidate, presidential or parliamentary, will be tussling it out on their own, the consequences might be dire for the NRM.
When President Yoweri Museveni visited Mbale during the NRM anniversary on January 26, most people expected him to announce the official candidate, but he decided to play safe by sitting on the fence.
“Ebyaffe ebya diiro sijja kubyogera wano. Naye njakukomawo mangu okubitereza. (I am not going to discuss our internal matters here. But I will come back soon to resolve the matter),†Museveni said.
The NRM anniversary, which was expected to be the anointment of Wambogo, left a lot of party voters in suspense on Museveni’s position on the two rivals.
To entrench the uncertainty further, Museveni told the voters to elect Wambogo during his February 14 rally at Mbale Secondary School but did not say Mutende was not worthy either.
“All these people who contested in the primaries were good. I appeal to the supporters of Mutende to give their votes to Wambogo. I have talked to all these candidates and told them that this tenure will only last 11 months,†Museveni said.
Wamanga criticises the President for using the NRM anniversary and the election day eve on Sunday to root for Wambogo.
He says Museveni’s agents in Mbale tried to hoodwink the people and appease the President by pouring murram on the potholed roads and passing graders through, which he says did not amuse the people.
“What the people of Mbale are protesting against are the poor social services and poor infrastructure like bad roads. They need drugs in the hospitals and safe drinking water. This is exactly what I am going to demand from government,†Wamanga told The New Vision just after being declared winner.
Wamanga enjoyed party solidarity right from the nominations on January 20. At the occasion, Budadiri West MP Nandala Mafabi, FDC spokesman Wafula Oguttu and the district party officials stood by him.
The team launched door-to-door campaigns in the municipality and were later fired up by FDC president Dr. Kizza Besigye, who held a four-day camp in the town to canvass for support.
“By the time Museveni came, he moved in the areas that had already been combed by FDC. The people of Mbale voted against NRM because they felt they were being coerced to elect somebody against their will,†Gerald Siranda from the Northern division says.
The shooting incident:
Perhaps one of the major setbacks for the NRM was the shooting incident in which the minister of state for housing, Michael Werikhe’s bodyguard shot at a vehicle in which Mutende’s campaign team was travelling.
Mutende’s supporter Abdallah Kayiwa was rushed to Mbale hospital with injuries. The incident occurred at 1:00pm and is widely believed to have swayed the undecided voters to go against the NRM.
“Being a working day, most people voted after 1:00pm. When the news started trickling through the local radio stations, people changed their minds and voted against Wambogo,†Joseph Elunya, a resident in Industrial Division says.
The Mutende factor
Prior to the disputed January 16 NRM primaries, a party meeting presided over by the NRM chief whip, Daudi Migereko, at Sunrise Hotel had agreed that all other candidates should back the winner of the primaries.
The meeting also agreed that to avoid discontent among candidates during the primaries, the NRM electoral commission must display voting registers five days to the polls to allow the electorate cross-check their names.
Unfortunately, the register was displayed on the polling date, where many NRM voters found their names missing. The disenfranchisement gave Mutende the guts to defy the President and continue as an independent.
Out of about 3,000 expected voters, only about 1,000 voted in the primaries.
It is also believed that the East African MP, Lydia Wanyoto Mutende, had a role to play, having been asked by top NRM officials like deputy secretary general Dorothy Hyuha and Migereko to convince her husband to step down for Wambogo to no avail.
It is feared that Mutende’s defiance could cost Wanyoto her MP seat, for which she was nominated by the NRM.
According Sam Wambuya, an independent candidate who got 65 votes, the NRM aspirants failed to agree due to greed.
“People are pursuing personal gains instead of working for the party. They look at NRM along personal gains. They have many camps, Michael Werikhe, Muhamood Masaba, I think that is what is killing the NRM here. The FDC are united and I think that collective work ethic is the reason they won,†he said.
Wambogo’s popularity
Wambogo was little known until the NRM primaries. He clung onto the legacy of the late third deputy premier, James Wapakhabulo, which did not play the trick.
“Nobody knew about Wambogo until he won the NRM primaries. So ugly rumours about his personal life started. If Mutende had been fronted in the primaries, he would have won the race,†says Samuel Masaba from Northern Division.