Can a united opposition win the 2011 election?
Jul 04, 2010
IN November 2009, the New Vision invited me to make a review of politicians to watch in 2010. My work, which was published in January 2010, had rave reviews on Norbert Mao, Dr. Olara Otunnu and Dr. Kizza Besigye as one of the politicians likely to shine in 2010.
By Asuman Bisiika
IN November 2009, the New Vision invited me to make a review of politicians to watch in 2010. My work, which was published in January 2010, had rave reviews on Norbert Mao, Dr. Olara Otunnu and Dr. Kizza Besigye as one of the politicians likely to shine in 2010.
This is what I wrote on Mao’s entry: “…even if he were to be elected DP President, Mao would find it quite challenging to lead the party. Even worse, his presidential candidature (on a DP ticket) would still have a minimal impact on the electoral dynamics in 2011.â€
The only realistic chance for DP is in winning parliamentary seats (particularly in Buganda region). But since the party decided to keep a distance from the opposition’s inter-party alliance, they will have to reckon with the alliance’s candidates both challenging the ruling NRM candidates. Ask Mukasa Mbidde what happened in Kalungu.
And that is where we expect the ‘real’ Mao would come in. If Mao is elected as DP’s president general, there is a likelihood that he would lead the party into the opposition Inter-Party Co-operation alliance or at least co-operate on the alliance’s other platforms. And that is when Mao will come out as an outstanding national leaderâ€.
But all those predictions have been overtaken by events. Mao has not led DP to join the IPC and the DP Buganda is very keen on isolating him making the potential DP parliamentary seats a tough propositionâ€.
Now, I would like to make a case for a united opposition ahead of the 2011 elections.
In 1990, very few African countries like Botswana, the Gambia, Mauritius and Senegal, had a multi-party system. Save for Libya, almost all African countries have adopted multiparty system today.
From 1990 to date, Africa has had more than 40 peaceful changes of government through electoral processes.
However, out of those 40 changes, the opposition has only won 16 elections in 13 countries. And in all the 16 cases where the opposition won an election, the opposition had rallied or coalesced around one group or candidate.
Zambia held its first multi-party election in October 1991; arguably Africa’s first post-Cold War election to be won by the opposition.
However, it should be noted that almost all opposition parties rallied Frederick Chiluba’s Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) against the incumbent Kenneth Kaunda of United National Independence Party.
Other cases where a de facto opposition coalition won elections are Niger in March 1993; Burundi in June 1993; Senegal in March 2000 and Kenya in December 2002.
In an almost de jure two-party system, opposition candidates have won twice in both Cape Verde (1991 and 2001) and Ghana (2000 and 2008) and once in Sierra Leone (2007).
The opposition has only won transitional polls in countries where the former one-party ruling regime had been greatly weakened and discredited.
These examples are Pascal Lissouba’s PanAfrican Union for Social Democracy (UPADS) August 1992 victory in Congo Brazzaville; Albert Zafy’s February 1993 victory in Madagascar; Ange-Félix Patassé’s September 1993 in the Central African Republic; Bakili Muluzi’s May 1994 victory in Malawi and Coumba Yala’s January 2000 victory in Guinea-Bissau.
However, President Museveni and his National Resistance Movement have not reached the level of weakness where the opposition would stampede it out of power.
On the flip side, there are cases where failure of opposition forces to unite may have cost them victory. In Gabon, the August 30, 2009 poll returned the ruling party’s Mr. Aly Bongo with 41.7%.
Each of his two main rival running as independent candidates got 25%. With a simple majority rule, it is hypothetical that a coalition between these two independent candidates would have landed them victory with 50% of the vote, 8% clear of Bongo’s share.
In 2001 presidential elections in Zambia, the ruling MMD’s candidate Levy Mwanawassa was challenged by ten opposition candidates who failed (or refused) to rally behind UNIP’s Anderson Mazoka, the most serious challenger among them.
Mwanawassa won with a mere 29.15%, against Mazoka’s 27.20%. The third candidate got 13.1%; the fourth one 10.12% and the fifth one garnered 8.9%.
A coalition of any of these candidates with Mazoka would have given him more than the 1.96% that he needed to beat the ruling MMD’s candidate.
The writer is a socio-political analyst
IN November 2009, the New Vision invited me to make a review of politicians to watch in 2010. My work, which was published in January 2010, had rave reviews on Norbert Mao, Dr. Olara Otunnu and Dr. Kizza Besigye as one of the politicians likely to shine in 2010.
This is what I wrote on Mao’s entry: “…even if he were to be elected DP President, Mao would find it quite challenging to lead the party. Even worse, his presidential candidature (on a DP ticket) would still have a minimal impact on the electoral dynamics in 2011.â€
The only realistic chance for DP is in winning parliamentary seats (particularly in Buganda region). But since the party decided to keep a distance from the opposition’s inter-party alliance, they will have to reckon with the alliance’s candidates both challenging the ruling NRM candidates. Ask Mukasa Mbidde what happened in Kalungu.
And that is where we expect the ‘real’ Mao would come in. If Mao is elected as DP’s president general, there is a likelihood that he would lead the party into the opposition Inter-Party Co-operation alliance or at least co-operate on the alliance’s other platforms. And that is when Mao will come out as an outstanding national leaderâ€.
But all those predictions have been overtaken by events. Mao has not led DP to join the IPC and the DP Buganda is very keen on isolating him making the potential DP parliamentary seats a tough propositionâ€.
Now, I would like to make a case for a united opposition ahead of the 2011 elections.
In 1990, very few African countries like Botswana, the Gambia, Mauritius and Senegal, had a multi-party system. Save for Libya, almost all African countries have adopted multiparty system today.
From 1990 to date, Africa has had more than 40 peaceful changes of government through electoral processes.
However, out of those 40 changes, the opposition has only won 16 elections in 13 countries. And in all the 16 cases where the opposition won an election, the opposition had rallied or coalesced around one group or candidate.
Zambia held its first multi-party election in October 1991; arguably Africa’s first post-Cold War election to be won by the opposition.
However, it should be noted that almost all opposition parties rallied Frederick Chiluba’s Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) against the incumbent Kenneth Kaunda of United National Independence Party.
Other cases where a de facto opposition coalition won elections are Niger in March 1993; Burundi in June 1993; Senegal in March 2000 and Kenya in December 2002.
In an almost de jure two-party system, opposition candidates have won twice in both Cape Verde (1991 and 2001) and Ghana (2000 and 2008) and once in Sierra Leone (2007).
The opposition has only won transitional polls in countries where the former one-party ruling regime had been greatly weakened and discredited.
These examples are Pascal Lissouba’s PanAfrican Union for Social Democracy (UPADS) August 1992 victory in Congo Brazzaville; Albert Zafy’s February 1993 victory in Madagascar; Ange-Félix Patassé’s September 1993 in the Central African Republic; Bakili Muluzi’s May 1994 victory in Malawi and Coumba Yala’s January 2000 victory in Guinea-Bissau.
However, President Museveni and his National Resistance Movement have not reached the level of weakness where the opposition would stampede it out of power.
On the flip side, there are cases where failure of opposition forces to unite may have cost them victory. In Gabon, the August 30, 2009 poll returned the ruling party’s Mr. Aly Bongo with 41.7%.
Each of his two main rival running as independent candidates got 25%. With a simple majority rule, it is hypothetical that a coalition between these two independent candidates would have landed them victory with 50% of the vote, 8% clear of Bongo’s share.
In 2001 presidential elections in Zambia, the ruling MMD’s candidate Levy Mwanawassa was challenged by ten opposition candidates who failed (or refused) to rally behind UNIP’s Anderson Mazoka, the most serious challenger among them.
Mwanawassa won with a mere 29.15%, against Mazoka’s 27.20%. The third candidate got 13.1%; the fourth one 10.12% and the fifth one garnered 8.9%.
A coalition of any of these candidates with Mazoka would have given him more than the 1.96% that he needed to beat the ruling MMD’s candidate.
The writer is a socio-political analyst