Museveni leads with 66% - poll
Dec 16, 2010
IF Ugandans were to vote today, President Yoweri Museveni would win with 66% of the vote, while FDC chief Kizza Besigye would come second with 12%, according to a poll.
By Barbara Among
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IF Ugandans were to vote today, President Yoweri Museveni would win with 66% of the vote, while FDC chief Kizza Besigye would come second with 12%, according to a poll.
The winner needs only 51%, according to the Constitution.
Commissioned by donors and conducted between November 16 and December 6, the poll says DP leader Norbert Mao and UPC candidate Olara Otunnu would each get 3%.
Beti Kamya, on the other hand, would get 1%.
The rest of the candidates, Abed Bwanika, Bidandi Ssali and Samuel Lubega, would get zero percent each.
Afrobarometer, which carried out the poll, specialises in surveys on democracy and governance in Africa.
The group operates in 16 countries across west, east and southern Africa.
This is its fourth round of survey in Uganda; the first was in 2002.
In the survey, Ugandans said they would vote for Museveni because of his personality, leadership skills, and the ability to deliver on jobs and development. Only 2% said they would vote for him because he belongs to their ethnic group.
The poll, however, shows several surprises that are bound to shake some long-held ideas about regional and demographic voting patterns, as well as where the patterns, as well as where the strengths of various candidates and political parties lie.
For instance, the ruling National Resistance Movement party has gained support across the country, including the eastern and northern regions, where Museveni performed poorly in the 2006 elections. In the central the poll gave Museveni 59% of the vote, 83% in the west, 59% in the north and 64% in the east. This is about 20% gain for Museveni in the north.
Surprisingly, his two-time rival, Besigye, who beat him in the east and north in 2006, has only 11% in north and 13% in the east. In the central, where political analysts expected him to do well, he scored 12%.
Even in Kampala, where Besigye beat Museveni in the previous election, he has only 15% against Museveni’s 44%.
The poll was released in Kampala yesterday by the Afrobarometer at the offices of the Deepening Democracy Group, which commissioned it.
It said Mao would only manage 8% in the central, zero in the west, 2% in the north and 1% in the east. Â
Otunnu, it added, would not get any votes from the central and west and only get 1% in the east and 11% in the north.
Kamya would score 2% from the west and central and 1% from each of the other regions.
The poll also said 3% of the 2,000 voters interviewed were not sure who to vote for.
Asked which party they liked most, 72% chose NRM, 28% picked FDC, while 15% said they would go for UPC.
Some 38% said they disliked FDC, UPC and DP. The same percentage said they were neutral.
Most of the people interviewed attributed their dislike for the parties to their past experiences, unrealistic promises, inexperience and perceived tribalism.Â
A poll conducted from June 21 to July 23 by New Vision showed that 52.72% of Ugandans at the time would vote for President Museveni.
The Forum for Democartic Change leader, Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, came second with 16.06%. The DP boss, Norbert Mao, got 5.41%, followed by Olara Otunnu of the UPC with 3.14% and Bidandi Ssali of the People’s Progressive Party got 1%.
Other issues in the survey
Ugandans want the next President to address health, education, corruption and unemployment.
Although it found out that 90% of Ugandans would vote, 59% feared post-election violence, while 73% of the respondents predicted that the loser would concede defeat.
It showed that the presidency was the most trusted institution with 68%, followed by the courts at 61%, though this is a decline from 71% in 2005. The Police is the least trusted institution in the country, the survey showed.
Ugandans, however, feel that the current government has failed to end corruption and provide jobs.
While 53% of the respondents said the existing electoral laws were sufficient to deliver free and fair elections, only 47% said they trusted the Electoral Commission to deliver.
The good news for the Electoral Commission chairman Badru Kiggudu, is that 53% of Ugandans said he was doing a good job.
The opposition has on several occasion demanded his resignation, alleging that he is incompetent.
On public awareness, the poll said about 50% of Ugandans knew that the elections are due on February 18 and could name two or more presidential candidates. 58% of the respondents said they had attended campaign rallies.
While 90% said they felt free to vote for a candidate of their choice, 63% said they are not free to comment on political issues.
On vote buying, the NRM party came first, followed by the FDC. Respondents said the parties had offered them money, household items, alcohol and job promises. Despite this, 77% said they would take the money but vote for a candidate of their choice.
The survey also assesed the impact of recent events across the country on the NRM chances of re-election. On the reopening of CBS, only 30% said it would impact positively on the outcome of the vote.
The Government closed the Buganda kingdom radio station in September 2009, accusing it of inciting violence. It re-opened it last month.
On the disputed NRM primaries, 33% of respondents said it would negatively impact on the party.
How survey was done
The survey involved 2000 adult Ugandans in 71% of 112 districts, or 79 districts.
It lasted for 19 days between November 18 and December 6.
Areas, households and individuals were selected randomly.
It used face to face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice. These were Luganda, Runyankole-Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Akirimojong and Lumasaba.
The age of the respondents ranged from 18 to 75 years. Half were male and the other female selected from both urban (14%) and rural (86%) areas.
Overall margin of error is +/- 2.5
    Â
IF Ugandans were to vote today, President Yoweri Museveni would win with 66% of the vote, while FDC chief Kizza Besigye would come second with 12%, according to a poll.
The winner needs only 51%, according to the Constitution.
Commissioned by donors and conducted between November 16 and December 6, the poll says DP leader Norbert Mao and UPC candidate Olara Otunnu would each get 3%.
Beti Kamya, on the other hand, would get 1%.
The rest of the candidates, Abed Bwanika, Bidandi Ssali and Samuel Lubega, would get zero percent each.
Afrobarometer, which carried out the poll, specialises in surveys on democracy and governance in Africa.
The group operates in 16 countries across west, east and southern Africa.
This is its fourth round of survey in Uganda; the first was in 2002.
In the survey, Ugandans said they would vote for Museveni because of his personality, leadership skills, and the ability to deliver on jobs and development. Only 2% said they would vote for him because he belongs to their ethnic group.
The poll, however, shows several surprises that are bound to shake some long-held ideas about regional and demographic voting patterns, as well as where the patterns, as well as where the strengths of various candidates and political parties lie.
For instance, the ruling National Resistance Movement party has gained support across the country, including the eastern and northern regions, where Museveni performed poorly in the 2006 elections. In the central the poll gave Museveni 59% of the vote, 83% in the west, 59% in the north and 64% in the east. This is about 20% gain for Museveni in the north.
Surprisingly, his two-time rival, Besigye, who beat him in the east and north in 2006, has only 11% in north and 13% in the east. In the central, where political analysts expected him to do well, he scored 12%.
Even in Kampala, where Besigye beat Museveni in the previous election, he has only 15% against Museveni’s 44%.
The poll was released in Kampala yesterday by the Afrobarometer at the offices of the Deepening Democracy Group, which commissioned it.
It said Mao would only manage 8% in the central, zero in the west, 2% in the north and 1% in the east. Â
Otunnu, it added, would not get any votes from the central and west and only get 1% in the east and 11% in the north.
Kamya would score 2% from the west and central and 1% from each of the other regions.
The poll also said 3% of the 2,000 voters interviewed were not sure who to vote for.
Asked which party they liked most, 72% chose NRM, 28% picked FDC, while 15% said they would go for UPC.
Some 38% said they disliked FDC, UPC and DP. The same percentage said they were neutral.
Most of the people interviewed attributed their dislike for the parties to their past experiences, unrealistic promises, inexperience and perceived tribalism.Â
A poll conducted from June 21 to July 23 by New Vision showed that 52.72% of Ugandans at the time would vote for President Museveni.
The Forum for Democartic Change leader, Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, came second with 16.06%. The DP boss, Norbert Mao, got 5.41%, followed by Olara Otunnu of the UPC with 3.14% and Bidandi Ssali of the People’s Progressive Party got 1%.
Other issues in the survey
Ugandans want the next President to address health, education, corruption and unemployment.
Although it found out that 90% of Ugandans would vote, 59% feared post-election violence, while 73% of the respondents predicted that the loser would concede defeat.
It showed that the presidency was the most trusted institution with 68%, followed by the courts at 61%, though this is a decline from 71% in 2005. The Police is the least trusted institution in the country, the survey showed.
Ugandans, however, feel that the current government has failed to end corruption and provide jobs.
While 53% of the respondents said the existing electoral laws were sufficient to deliver free and fair elections, only 47% said they trusted the Electoral Commission to deliver.
The good news for the Electoral Commission chairman Badru Kiggudu, is that 53% of Ugandans said he was doing a good job.
The opposition has on several occasion demanded his resignation, alleging that he is incompetent.
On public awareness, the poll said about 50% of Ugandans knew that the elections are due on February 18 and could name two or more presidential candidates. 58% of the respondents said they had attended campaign rallies.
While 90% said they felt free to vote for a candidate of their choice, 63% said they are not free to comment on political issues.
On vote buying, the NRM party came first, followed by the FDC. Respondents said the parties had offered them money, household items, alcohol and job promises. Despite this, 77% said they would take the money but vote for a candidate of their choice.
The survey also assesed the impact of recent events across the country on the NRM chances of re-election. On the reopening of CBS, only 30% said it would impact positively on the outcome of the vote.
The Government closed the Buganda kingdom radio station in September 2009, accusing it of inciting violence. It re-opened it last month.
On the disputed NRM primaries, 33% of respondents said it would negatively impact on the party.
How survey was done
The survey involved 2000 adult Ugandans in 71% of 112 districts, or 79 districts.
It lasted for 19 days between November 18 and December 6.
Areas, households and individuals were selected randomly.
It used face to face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice. These were Luganda, Runyankole-Rukiga, Runyoro-Rutooro, Lugbara, Alur, Luo, Ateso, Akirimojong and Lumasaba.
The age of the respondents ranged from 18 to 75 years. Half were male and the other female selected from both urban (14%) and rural (86%) areas.
Overall margin of error is +/- 2.5