Impeachment sobered up General Obasanjo
Apr 09, 2003
This Saturday, April 12, over 60 million registered Nigerian voters (over 7 million people were disqualifierd by the Electoral Commissio) will go to the polls to elect legislators for the 36 <br>State Houses of Assembly and the two houses of the National Assembly and the Federal territory of Abu
This Saturday, April 12 over 60 million registered Nigerian voters (over 7 million people were disqualifierd by the Electoral Commissio) will go to the polls to elect legislators for the 36 State Houses of Assembly and the two houses of the National Assembly and the Federal territory of Abuja.
The campaigns, the first since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, after the hurried political transition consequent to the dramatic death of the neo-fascist General, Sani Abacha in 1998 has been marred by volience, both between rivals in the same party and between parties.
In spite of this, Nigerians still have faith in the democratic order because they have tried everything else and failed. Hopefully, these elections will pass off relatively peacefully and generally seen to be fair. It has not been an easy transition given the huge expectatations of the masses of Nigerians and the paramilitary behaviour of the elected dictators, many of them ex-military elements and civilian collaborators with successive military rulers.
The parliamentary elections will give an indication of the power balance between the various political parties (the country has 30 registered political parties) but more importantly, provide pointers to which of the main presidential candidates will win the presisdential election slated for Saturday.
The presidential election is a “battle of the Generals†between the incumbent President, a former head of state and military dictator, General Olushegun Obasanjo, of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (DPP) and General Muhammadu Buhari, another former head of state and military dictator, of the All Nigeria People’s party (ANPP).
But the parliamentary election is also important in its own right for the health of the democratic order. Initially, the executives at both federal and state levels, suffering from milirary authoritarianism, treated their legislators as poor cousins, a forced democratic inconvenience to be manipulated, undermined or ignored.
Soon, the legislators discovered their “whitemailing†powers of legislative oversight, accountability, approval, and above all else, impeachment of the executive and realised that they could be a hinderance to the Executive.
The most dramatic demonstration of this was the impeachment threat against the President last year. Hitherto, the president behaved more like the General that he was and had no constitutional regard for the legislators in the National Assembly.
He bought his way out of the impeachment debacle but the lesson was not lost on him: legislators are very important in a democracy and very much so in a democratising underdeveloped democracy. The impeachment sobered up the president because it showed him that even if his party had the majority in parliament it cannot be taken for granted.
As the main candidates and parties prepare for saturday, their eyes will be on the the parliamentary tally. It will not just be about how many members their parties retain or win but how many are won by other parties that may go into an alliance with them.
The registration of new political parties also mean that many new people may enter parliament on the platform of other parties thereby neutralising the undemocratic hold of the three main parties, PDP, ANPP and AD). In 1999 it was impossible for genuine democrats (who fought the military to a standstill while most of the civilian political class was busy collaboraitng wih them) to stand for elective offices because of the huge financial resources required and the stranglehold of the corrupt “militocrats†and “militricians†on the tripartite party structure.
With the 30-party structure it may be possible that some elements of the human rights and broad pro-democracy constituencies may win elective office on indivuidual merit and past record of standing for democractic values instead of the “monetics†represented by most of the current leaders. They may not come in big numbers but they could, by example, and proactive initiatives, in the new parliaments, become catalysts for genuine democratisation and accountability.
Obasanjo’s main challlengers may not sweep the polls on saturday in his home region because the governors have to secure their backyards against saturday but he may do better the following weekend. Similarly Obasanjo’s party, the PDP, may not win in his home region, this weekend but come next weekend he can reasdonably expect huge votes from these areas.
The other four geo-political zones in the country may also produce different results from saturday to the next one. Even on Saturday there maybe significant changes between the votes for governorship and the presidency in all the regions.
All the parties will know their true standing after this election and may be forced to embark on the necessary trade-offs and negotiations for the governorship and presidential election.
The elections will largely be determined by local issues while the following weekend will be dominated by national ones.
Tajudeen28@yahoo.com
The campaigns, the first since Nigeria returned to civil rule in 1999, after the hurried political transition consequent to the dramatic death of the neo-fascist General, Sani Abacha in 1998 has been marred by volience, both between rivals in the same party and between parties.
In spite of this, Nigerians still have faith in the democratic order because they have tried everything else and failed. Hopefully, these elections will pass off relatively peacefully and generally seen to be fair. It has not been an easy transition given the huge expectatations of the masses of Nigerians and the paramilitary behaviour of the elected dictators, many of them ex-military elements and civilian collaborators with successive military rulers.
The parliamentary elections will give an indication of the power balance between the various political parties (the country has 30 registered political parties) but more importantly, provide pointers to which of the main presidential candidates will win the presisdential election slated for Saturday.
The presidential election is a “battle of the Generals†between the incumbent President, a former head of state and military dictator, General Olushegun Obasanjo, of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (DPP) and General Muhammadu Buhari, another former head of state and military dictator, of the All Nigeria People’s party (ANPP).
But the parliamentary election is also important in its own right for the health of the democratic order. Initially, the executives at both federal and state levels, suffering from milirary authoritarianism, treated their legislators as poor cousins, a forced democratic inconvenience to be manipulated, undermined or ignored.
Soon, the legislators discovered their “whitemailing†powers of legislative oversight, accountability, approval, and above all else, impeachment of the executive and realised that they could be a hinderance to the Executive.
The most dramatic demonstration of this was the impeachment threat against the President last year. Hitherto, the president behaved more like the General that he was and had no constitutional regard for the legislators in the National Assembly.
He bought his way out of the impeachment debacle but the lesson was not lost on him: legislators are very important in a democracy and very much so in a democratising underdeveloped democracy. The impeachment sobered up the president because it showed him that even if his party had the majority in parliament it cannot be taken for granted.
As the main candidates and parties prepare for saturday, their eyes will be on the the parliamentary tally. It will not just be about how many members their parties retain or win but how many are won by other parties that may go into an alliance with them.
The registration of new political parties also mean that many new people may enter parliament on the platform of other parties thereby neutralising the undemocratic hold of the three main parties, PDP, ANPP and AD). In 1999 it was impossible for genuine democrats (who fought the military to a standstill while most of the civilian political class was busy collaboraitng wih them) to stand for elective offices because of the huge financial resources required and the stranglehold of the corrupt “militocrats†and “militricians†on the tripartite party structure.
With the 30-party structure it may be possible that some elements of the human rights and broad pro-democracy constituencies may win elective office on indivuidual merit and past record of standing for democractic values instead of the “monetics†represented by most of the current leaders. They may not come in big numbers but they could, by example, and proactive initiatives, in the new parliaments, become catalysts for genuine democratisation and accountability.
Obasanjo’s main challlengers may not sweep the polls on saturday in his home region because the governors have to secure their backyards against saturday but he may do better the following weekend. Similarly Obasanjo’s party, the PDP, may not win in his home region, this weekend but come next weekend he can reasdonably expect huge votes from these areas.
The other four geo-political zones in the country may also produce different results from saturday to the next one. Even on Saturday there maybe significant changes between the votes for governorship and the presidency in all the regions.
All the parties will know their true standing after this election and may be forced to embark on the necessary trade-offs and negotiations for the governorship and presidential election.
The elections will largely be determined by local issues while the following weekend will be dominated by national ones.
Tajudeen28@yahoo.com