Can An Opposition Alliance Prevail?

Apr 29, 2003

Most Ugandan multiparty supporters dream of creating an alliance like the one that triumphed in Kenya. Many agree it is the only way parties can enter State House.

By Joshua Kato
Most Ugandan multiparty supporters dream of creating an alliance like the one that triumphed in Kenya. Many agree it is the only way parties can enter State House.
The move towards such unity is underway with the formation of the National Coalition for Peace and Democracy (NCPD).
Nearly all major political parties are part of this project. Meetings to this effect have been going on since January. For one to be a member of the coalition, he has to be a member of an established political organisation. But will the coalition work out this time?
The primary objective of the coalition is to stop the Movement from winning the next elections by destabilising it. After winning the elections, the coalition intends to overhaul the UPDF, stop all wars in the country through peace talks and create a democratic state.
According to the initial plan, each party will forward its favourite candidate. Then the candidates from the different parties will be weighed through an election. The winning candidate will go through to stand against the Movement candidate.
Inside the parties themselves, identification of the right candidates is underway. According to Dr. James Rwanyarare of the Uganda People’s Congress, five members have already shown interest in running for the presidency. In the Democratic Party, about five candidates have also shown their intentions. Dr. Paul Ssemogerere, President General of the party, has retired: “All of them will have to go through the party primaries and the best candidate will be forwarded to contest for the country’s presidency. The list includes Nasser Ssebagala, Norbert Mao and Wamala Kalule. There is also talk of John Ssebaana Kizito, the current mayor of Kampala,” he says.
The Reform Agenda, a pressure group, is fronting their 2001 candidate, Col. (Rtd) Kizza Besigye. No surprise choice indeed.
Perhaps the only other person to rival his popularity in the party is Winnie Byanyima, his wife. Sam Njuba, Reform’s vice chairman, says he hopes their candidate will be accepted by the rest of the parties.
In the Conservative Party, Ken Lukyamuzi has hinted at stepping forward. Lukyamuzi says he is happy this coalition is being formed: “It is good that we realise that no single autonomous political party can stand on its own and defeat the Movement. The only way we can do it is through unity,” he says. Lukyamuzi admitted that he attended one of the coalition meetings on Friday, April 25.
Lukyamuzi gives the example of Tanzania where, although political party politics was restored nearly 17 years ago, the opposition has never taken power: “To avoid such a situation, we need to work very hard. We need to walk on foot, rather than in cars. We need to capitalise on the many ills of the Movement, like corruption and endless wars,” he says.
Smaller parties like JEEMA and the National Democratic Forum are also attending the meetings. Like NARC did in Kenya, parties are planning to use popular, all round personalities to tilt regional votes in their favour.

No names for particular regions have been given yet. For the north, the coalition hopes to depend on the popularity of people like Norbert Mao to gather support: “The north has never been a difficult area for the opposition. I think they should put more emphasis in the West and Central, where the Movement is still very popular,” Edward Lubwama, a political analysts, says. This is certainly where the popularity of people like Ssebagala should be well utilized.
But the coalition has several hurdles. The fear of one party dominating the coalition looms large. Initial information indicates that the coalition is mainly the brain-child of reformists. Sam Njuba, Salaam Musumba and Jack Sabiiti are the interim leaders. Others include Captain Guma Gumisiriza and Major John Kazoora. All of them are considered to be sympathetic to the Reformists. The two Makerere University dons, Dr. Jean Barya and Dr. Oloka Onyango, also behind the coalition, are not considered as mainstream multipartyists. Traditional parties like DP and UPC fear to be left out. Talk from DP is that they might not support any candidate than one of their own. Some members even accused Reform of trying to impose Besigye on them. Some members of the coalition are accusing DP of being the stumbling block to signing the coalition agreement.
However, DP spokesman Jude Mbabali denies that there is any skepticism expressed by DP over the coalition: “We are still going through the various stages and we as DP have not even once cut off our links with the coalition, or even Besigye,” he says.
Tamale Mirundi, a political analyst, thinks DP’s skepticism is justified: “DP is perhaps the biggest political party around. Bigger parties should have the largest say in coalitions, so if DP is not getting this dominant role, they are right to be skeptical of the set up,” he says. He explains that smaller parties like JEEMA, NDF and CP can join without asking questions, since they have a very minor following.
To sway the political weight in their favour, the coalition hopes for a mass defection of Movement supporters to their side. Their eyes are on strong, respectable men like Bidandi Ssali. However, reports from the Movement indicate that Bidandi Ssali is actively involved in the creation of a Movement party, meeting President Yoweri Museveni regularly.
“It might not be as easy as some people think for high ranking Movement people like Bidandi to defect to the opposition, as happened in Kenya,” says Edward Lubwama. He explains that while the Kenyan opposition had never been in power before and was not tainted in any way, sections of people forming the opposition today were in power before and are tainted: “Principled politicians who have always been saying that UPC killed people would not like to be seen sitting on the same bench with the UPC,” he says.
This will not be the first time parties are uniting. However, none of the past five coalitions has ever survived the test of time. In 1962, UPC and Kabaka Yekka formed an alliance to defeat DP. A few years later, the coalition ended in blood and iron. In 1980, after the overthrow of Amin, over six groups formed a coalition called the Uganda National Liberation Movement. The groups included FRONASA, Kikosi Maalum, members of DP and UPC. It collapsed barely a year later.
In 1985, after Tito Okello took power, he formed a coalition with a collection of armed groups including FEDEMU, Uganda Freedom Movement and Uganda National Rescue Front to fight the National Resistance Army of Museveni, without success. In 1996, the opposition formed a coalition called the IPFC, in support of Dr. Paul Ssemogerere, who stood against President Museveni. It failed. In 2001, the opposition largely allied themselves around Kizza Besigye, but still, they failed to defeat President Museveni.
Tamale Mirundi explains why Ugandan coalitions never succeed: “The opposition never carries out a research to find out why their coalitions fail. Have they for example got a research on why the 1996 and 2001 coalitions failed?” he asks. He says parties must quickly realise that some of the people joining the opposition are liabilities rather than assets. Ends

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