2003, a year of political katogo

Dec 29, 2003

A bit of everything would be the best way to describe politics this year. Like the elections of 1996 and 2001, this year provided a lot of tension, suspense and even humour

By Joshua Kato

A bit of everything would be the best way to describe politics this year. Like the elections of 1996 and 2001, this year provided a lot of tension, suspense and even humour.

In March, the National Executive Committee (NEC) and the National Conference of the Movement system endorsed among other things a return to multiparty politics and the lifting of term limits. These two things have since directed the flow of local political debates.

The return to multiparty politics was faintly opposed by a few Movement die-hards, but the lifting of term limits was verbally, spiritually and traditionally opposed by many people. The opposers included people who have been with the Movement for years and obviously the main opposition parties.

Such reverberations led to the dropping of four ministers. Eriya Kategaya, Jaberi Bidandi Ssali were dropped in a reshuffle largely attributed to their opposition to the lifting of term limits. Others dropped included Miria Matembe and Sarah Kiyingi.

Bidandi refused to accept that he was dropped because he had opposed the lifting of term limits. “I don’t think that was the case. I have been serving for the last 17 years in the same post, leaving it might not amount to being chased or dropped,” he laboured to explain.

A few days earlier, Dr. Wandira Kazibwe then vice president, resigned to go for further studies. In her place, came another doctor, Gilbert Bukenya. The move left the women of Uganda with a loss, that of the second most senior office in the land.

While Bidandi Ssali maintained a seemingly working relationship with President Museveni, when he accepted an appointment as vice-chairman of the new National Resistance Movement Organisation, Kategaya seems to continue moving further and further away.

In November, Kategaya accepted to present a paper at a parliamentary advocacy forum, PAFO, organised workshop in which he was very critical of the lifting of term limits. Bidandi has desisted from presenting such papers or attending such workshops.

The prediction this year is that Bidandi will mend fences with president Museveni and return to the main fold. He is likely to take up a senior position as leader of NRM-0.

The opposition to the lifting of term limits grew in leaps and bounds. This, with the emergence of a group, first referred to as Africana Group, mainly because they used to sit at Hotel Africana, but later dubbed the malwa group by Charles Rwomushana, a member of the popular Intelligence Network (PIN).

In September, the group merged with the PAFO to continue the opposition. The group elected 23 people to steer its activities.

They have held seminars in Mbale and Kampala. The prediction is that some of the PAFO members opposed to the lifting of term limits will move back to the main fold as the year 2004 moves on. This will be because of the suspense that will be caused, especially if PAFO does not cut a clear line between turning into a political party and contesting for power, or remaining as merely a pressure group.

“We are yet to take a decision on whether to become a political party or even contest for power in 2006,” Salaamu Musumba, the group’s spokesperson said as the year ended. Perhaps, they will take the decision this year, since the course of lifting term limits is set to become much clearer.

Clearing the issue of the lifting of term limits might either have to be done through a referendum or through parliament. This is according to the recommendations of the Constitutional Review Commission. After the final decision is taken predictably early in the year, President Museveni is likely to become clearer on the issue of term limits.

My prediction is that even before the middle of 2004, the president will have stated clearly if he is going to stand in 2006 or not.

The opposition remained a divided lot. The Democratic Party (DP) which is the largest political party in the country has not only maintained its two factions but also another one within the ranks of the youth wing, the UYD developed. Efforts to mend differences proved futile.

DP was jolted by the sudden announcement by Nobert Mao, that he was going to put himself up as a candidate in 2006. Nasser Ssebagala has been nursing the same intentions for a few years. Ssemogerere was quoted as saying that he is still young enough to stand.

Predictably, more people in the party will come out and declare their intentions to stand for the same post, which will lead to more chaos. The democratic party will spend the year trying to solve its own problems, rather than effectively fighting the registered NRM-O.

The Uganda People’s Congress began the year by starting regular weekly meetings in which they criticised every government policy.

But bar that, efforts to revitalise party branches dried up. Towards the end of the year, Dr. James Rwanyarare, the PPC chairman hinted at standing for the presidency in 2006.

My prediction is that unless UPC owns up for the atrocities they committed against the people of Uganda, they are likely to remain a Uganda House party, holding weekly press conferences and nothing more.

The Reform Agenda has got some of the most prominent political players in the country.

They have continued holding regular press briefings on Monday at their headquarters in Kamwokya. However, the continued absence of Colonel (Rtd) Kiiza Besigye is affecting the group’s ability to mobilise. This explains why although they have eloquent leaders, they are largely missing from the grassroots.

The continued absence of Winnie Byanyima has not helped matters either. Between February and July this year, she went missing, only to emerge later after threats of chasing her out of parliament were sounded.

My prediction is that this year, the youth group will intensify calls for the return of their chairman Kiiza Besigye.

The year 2004 is also expected to have the transition from the Movement to parties in full swing. Already, both the opposition and the government have set up teams to talk and decide on the route of the transition.

What is baffling the young politicians though is that the opposition team looks like the team of 15 years ago.

If you have Paul Ssemogerere and James Rwanyarare leading DP and UPC respectively then it looks like the bad old story for parties. Will things change later in the new year? Only time will tell.

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