LC byelections: Is it a yardstick for the 2011 general elections

May 06, 2009

Many countries hold mid-term elections before the general elections. Uganda does not, but some byelections provide an opportunity for political parties to gauge their strength. The set-up and final outcome of the local council byelections, slated for May

By Joshua Kato

Many countries hold mid-term elections before the general elections. Uganda does not, but some byelections provide an opportunity for political parties to gauge their strength. The set-up and final outcome of the local council byelections, slated for May 23 to 25, may be a precursor to what might come out of the 2011 elections.

Over 1,500 seats are being contested for countrywide. The NRM fielded 1,080 candidates, while an additional 625 went through unopposed. The Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) has 324 candidates, while 40 were unopposed and 331 are independents. The Democratic Party (DP) has 45 candidates, Social Democratic Party (SDP) has five, while UPC has 46 candidates.

The situation on the ground shows that the NRM is stronger and the opposition has to work hard to prepare for the 2011 elections. For instance, in Kampala Central Division, which is dominated by the opposition, an NRM candidate, Minsa Kabanda, went through unopposed. The seat fell vacant when Alice Muwanguzi became the Kampala resident district commissioner.

There is no opposition candidate contesting for any seat in Kaabong, Lyantonde, Abim, Koboko, Bukwo, Nakapiripirit, Kyenjojo, Nakasongola, Moroto, Kisoro, Kiboga, Kapchorwa, Kalangala and Iganga districts. This certainly shows that NRM is still ahead of the opposition.

The opposition is still faced with internal divisions. For instance, in Rubaga, besides Moses Makumbi, the official DP candidate, Justin Ssendikadiwa, another DP member, is standing as an independent.

In Lugazi Town Council, while the NRM has one candidate, four are from the opposition. Across the country, there is no unity among the opposition as each of them is putting up a candidate. In fact, more independent candidates are running for the local council seats than the opposition.

NRM camp
The NRM has at least 85% representation in the byelections. Even in formerly opposition- dominated areas like Nyadri and Maracha districts, the party seems to have an upper hand. However, all has not been rosy for the NRM.

In some areas like Mukono, they have had problems picking a candidate, hence the existence of independent candidates alongside the official ones. In Lugazi Town Council, the NRM is fielding Deo Tumwesigye, but one of the independents is a known NRM supporter.

There was also chaos and infighting in Jinja during the NRM primaries, with some candidates complaining that the elections were not free and fair.

That aside, the manner in which the NRM kicked off the Rubaga primaries gives them more hope. Even without going to the vote, the party agreed to field one candidate, Peter Ssematimba.

FDC
After the party’s national executive conference a few months ago, the party vowed to contest for every seat up to the grassroots level.
“We have elected leaders up to the grassroots level. We should now field candidates for every seat,” Col. Dr. Kizza Besigye, the party president, said.

But after the nominations, the story is different. Overall, FDC has 324 candidates for the over 1,500 seats countrywide. This represents less than 20%, which is too small for the leading opposition party.

However, the party is doing well in Kasese, where they have 28 candidates, thanks to Christopher Kibazanga, and in Sironko where they have 20, thanks perhaps to the efforts of Nandala Mafabi. The party has 17 candidates in Soroti, 18 in Jinja and 15 in Mayuge.

UPC
The party has no significant impact in most parts of the country other than the Lango region. UPC has only one candidate in Buganda, who is running for the Lugazi Town Council seat, and no candidate in the west. This is surprising since there has been talk of the party re-organising itself in the eastern and northern parts of the country. In Lira district, the party has fielded candidates for at least 23 of the seats to be filled.
Other than the ruling NRM party, no other group comes close to that much representation in the region. UPC is also doing well in Amuria, where they have 12 candidates. Until now, Amuria was supposedly a domain of the FDC since the LC5 chairman, Julius Ochen, supports the party. The FDC has nine candidates in the district.

Social Democratic Party
This new party has put up candidates for the Rubaga LC3 and in the Lugazi mayoral races. In Rubaga, Henry Lubowa is a fairly well-known politician, while J.B Asea is popular in Lugazi.
However, most of the new parties — the People’s Progressive Party and the People’s Development Party — will have less impact on the byelections. It is mainly the major political parties that will tussle it out.

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Democratic Party
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The party has less than 3% representation countrywide, but with candidates in almost all key seats in the central region. This gives them a competitive edge over other opposition groups. The party is marred by divisions, with some of its members standing on individual merit. In Rubaga, for example, Ssendikadiwa is standing as an independent. “Anybody standing as an independent should pull out of the race or face the wrath of the party disciplinary committee,” warned the DP deputy spokesman, Fred Mwesigwa. By the end of last week, Ssendikadiwa had been suspended from the party. It seems DP has put more emphasis on winning the Rubaga seat. However, the absence of stalwarts Erias Lukwago and Betty Nambooze on the campaign trail is a sign of divisions in the party.

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