High risks as Congo, Rwanda fight rebels

Jan 21, 2009

The participation of Rwandan regular troops in a joint operation to hunt down Rwandan Hutu rebels in eastern Congo takes aim at one of the root causes of Democratic Republic of Congo’s long-running conflict.

The participation of Rwandan regular troops in a joint operation to hunt down Rwandan Hutu rebels in eastern Congo takes aim at one of the root causes of Democratic Republic of Congo’s long-running conflict. But it could risk escalating tensions and violence in what is one of the world’s most volatile war zones.

Who are the Hutu rebels?
The presence of some 6,000 fighters of the rebel Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in east Congo for over a decade has been a key factor of instability in the Great Lakes region, a tinderbox of ethnic and political tensions.

These tensions stem directly from Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, when Hutu government soldiers and militia slaughtered 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutu. Tutsi rebels then seized power, spilling rebels and refugees into Congo.

The presence of Hutu militias in Congo provoked Tutsi-led Rwandan invasions that helped ignite Congo’s wider 1998-2003 war. That war and an ensuing humanitarian crisis have killed some 5.4 million people, most through hunger and disease.

The Rwandan Hutu FDLR joined an array of marauding armed groups in eastern Congo that despite the formal end of the war have continued to fight each other and terrorise civilians.

These groups include Congolese Tutsi rebels led by renegade general Laurent Nkunda, who has justified his five-year-old rebellion in east Congo by saying he is fighting to protect the Tutsi minority against their FDLR Hutu ethnic enemies. Nkunda, now challenged within his own movement, has long accused Congo’s government and army of collaborating with the FDLR, a charge denied by Kinshasa, although UN experts say there is evidence such collaboration exists.

Why is this anti-FDLR operation happening now?
It follows a major offensive in eastern North Kivu Province late last year by Nkunda's rebels, who routed government troops, seized swathes of land and displaced thousands of civilians.

The resulting international outcry revived pressure for a regional solution to the conflict, including peace talks between Nkunda's National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) and Congo’s government, and for joint action against the FDLR. In December, Congo and Rwanda agreed a military plan to forcibly disarm the FDLR, which would either send them home or oblige them to become non-combatant.

The plan now being implemented revives an earlier pledge by Congo to Rwanda in November 2007 to disarm the FDLR. In a move that also appeared to open the way for the anti-FDLR operation, Congolese Tutsi CNDP rebel military commanders offered last week to help the Congolese and Rwandan armies tackle the FDLR, while at the same time announcing a cessation of hostili ties with the Congolese government.

A Congolese government spokesman said the Tutsi rebel CNDP, which has suffered a split between its veteran founder Nkunda and his top military commander Bosco Ntaganda, would not participate in the anti-FDLR operation launched recently.

Will the anti-FDLR operation succeed?
The FDLR fighters, believed to number at least 6,000, have always been viewed by military experts as a tough nut to crack.

Ensconced in the rugged terrain of both North and South Kivu Provinces, they, like other armed groups, have been living off the land, subduing local people by force and financing themselves by operating illegal mining operations in a region rich in cassiterite (tin ore), gold and other minerals.

The FDLR political leadership lives in exile in Europe. A recent experts’ report to the UN Security Council estimated the FDLR controlled most of the principle artisanal mining sites in South Kivu, and gold mines in North Kivu. It estimated the FDLR was earning millions of dollars a year.

Experts have always said that the poorly-paid and ill-disciplined Congolese army (FARDC), itself a mish-mash of former armed groups, could never alone defeat the FDLR. Even the 17,000-strong UN peacekeeping operation in the Congo, which despite being the biggest in the world is stretched across the huge country, has never mounted an operation solely dedicated to disbanding the Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels in Congo. Rwanda’s Tutsi-led national armed forces, which have received training and equipment from the West, are acknowledged to be among the best in the region and in Africa.

But they may encounter animosity and resistance from many Congolese non-Tutsis, who accuse Rwanda of supporting Nkunda’s CNDP rebels and often reject Tutsis as “Rwandan” outsiders.

A UN military spokesman in Congo said on Tuesday 1,500-2,000 Rwandan troops had crossed over the border. A Congolese official spokesmen said Rwandan officers were invited in as “observers ... with their security contingents.”

Could the anti-FDLR offensive worsen tension and conflict?
Yes. FDLR leaders have already made clear they will resist any attempts to disband or expel them, which raises the risk of renewed fighting in a region where a quarter of a million people have been displaced by recurring conflict in recent months.

Ethnic animosities are running high in eastern Congo, following the offensive by Nkunda’s CNDP rebels, who besides taking on government troops also battled late last year with the FDLR and pro-government Mai-Mai militias.

North and South Kivu Provinces are an entangled patchwork of separate fiefdoms occupied by rival armed groups. This increases the chance of clashes breaking out and spreading.

Even though the latest operation has the acquiescence of Congo’s government, the previous Tutsi-led Rwandan incursions in the 1990s helped touch off a wider regional conflict that killed hundreds of thousands, so the risks of escalation are high.

An illustration of these risks can be found in another military operation involving foreign troops that is already underway further north of the Kivus, in Orientale Province.

Here, Ugandan forces, with the agreement of Kinshasa, are leading a month-old joint military operation to try to flush out Ugandan Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels from the remote Garamba National Park.

But this Ugandan-led offensive has already become bogged down. Far from neutralising the LRA rebels, they have dispersed and killed hundreds of defenceless civilians.
Reuters

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